Comparing the data with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s strategic advantage becomes clear. At this stage, the BJP had secured around 40 seats so far, while the Indian National Congress failed to win any seats. India Bloc parties managed to secure around five seats. This historical backdrop underlines the BJP’s strong position in these regions and sets a high bar for its competitors.
According to the Election Commission of India, the voter turnout in the 58 seats that went to polls in the sixth phase of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections was around 61.75%. This was a slight decrease from the 64.73% turnout in these seats in 2019, excluding the newly demarcated Anantnag Rajouri seat in Jammu and Kashmir. The lower turnout could be a sign of voter fatigue and frustration, which could affect the overall outcome.
Important battlefields in Haryana, Delhi
In Haryana, the BJP is trying to defend its position against a resurgent Indian National Congress and regional parties such as the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and the Indian National Democrat Party (INLD). The political landscape in Delhi is marked by a fierce contest between the BJP, the Ahmed Ahmed Party (AAP) and the Indian National Congress. Results in these regions will provide insights into the behavior of urban voters and the effectiveness of local governance models.
The sixth phase also saw active voter engagement in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where caste dynamics and regional issues play a key role. The BJP’s strategy of maintaining its dominance by focusing on a discourse of development and national security is being tested in the face of the Hindu bloc’s emphasis on social justice and coalitional politics.
As the final stages of voting near, the stakes remain high for all political stakeholders. The outcome will not only determine the next government, but also reflect India’s evolving political landscape and highlight the shifting alliances and voter priorities that have characterized this election season.
Voter turnout: A complex picture with notable trends
The sixth phase of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections has seen a kaleidoscope of voter turnout, painting a mixed picture of India’s democratic journey. The overall turnout was 61.2%, a slight decline from the 64.73% recorded in these constituencies in the 2019 elections. The decline, although slight, could be indicative of various socio-political factors at work.
West Bengal’s impressive turnout of 79.47% highlights the state’s active political engagement and may be a response to the key battle between the ruling party and its rivals. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh’s low turnout of 53.03% may reflect voter fatigue, disillusionment or strategic voting behaviour, given the state’s pivotal role in forming the central government.
These numbers have many implications. A high turnout in West Bengal could signal solidification of support for either the incumbent or the opposition, depending on mobilization efforts at the ground level. In Uttar Pradesh, a low turnout could be a concern for major parties, as it could signal a lack of enthusiasm among traditional voters or a shift in support.
Moreover, lower overall voter turnout could be interpreted as a sign of voter apathy or satisfaction with the status quo, which could favour incumbents, or it could signal silent protest, with voters choosing not to vote, reflecting an underlying desire for change.
Voter turnout data also has strategic implications for the political parties involved. It may lead to introspection and re-evaluation of electoral strategies, especially in areas with low voter turnout. Parties may need to address specific issues that resonate with voters in these areas in order to improve turnout in future elections.
In conclusion, voter turnout in the sixth phase is an important barometer of the nation’s pulse. While it indicates the immediate interests of voters, it also provides insight into the broader political landscape, which may influence party strategies and the election outcome. While the ultimate impact of voter turnout will only be fully understood once the election results are announced, it will undoubtedly shape the contours of the ongoing electoral battle.
BJP has the advantage
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went into the sixth phase of the 2014 Indian Lok Sabha elections with a significant advantage, building on past electoral successes and widespread support.
The reasons for the BJP’s dominance at this stage can be analysed as follows:
Its dominance in Delhi was crucial. The BJP’s victory in all seven Delhi seats in the 2019 general elections was a clear indication of the party’s strong presence in the national capital. The victory was no fluke but a testament to the party’s deep influence and strategic campaigning in urban constituencies.
Nationwide, the NDA won an overwhelming 51.36% of the votes, with the BJP alone winning more than 40% of the votes in at least 47 seats. This impressive vote share reflects the party’s broad support across different demographics and regions. The BJP’s consistent performance, including winning all seven seats in Delhi, underlines the party’s political strength and voters’ confidence in its governance.
Previous victories also played a key role in strengthening the BJP’s position. The party’s performance in winning 39 seats for the NDA in the 2014 elections set a precedent for the party’s dominance in the sixth phase. This history of success provided a strong foundation for the party to build on further. In key states such as Haryana, the BJP had a significant presence, winning seven out of the ten seats. In Delhi, the BJP won all seven seats. These victories in key states demonstrated the BJP’s ability to mobilise voters and address local issues effectively.
Other factors that contributed to the BJP’s dominance included strategic campaigning and selection of candidates that resonated with voters. The party’s focus on themes of development and national security resonated with a wide range of voters. Moreover, the BJP’s ability to form alliances and bring regional parties into the NDA also helped further consolidate its position.
In conclusion, the BJP’s dominance in the sixth phase of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections was a result of a combination of strategic planning, past electoral success and a strong connection with the sentiments of voters in various states. This multi-pronged approach not only consolidated the BJP’s base but also laid the foundation for it to expand its influence and establish a strong presence in the Indian political landscape.
A chance for the Indian bloc to revive
This phase of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections offers a major opportunity for the opposition to make a comeback. For the BJP and the broader BJP, this phase is crucial. In 2019, the BJP failed to secure any seats in this phase, winning just five seats, which were won by the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Jammu and Kashmir National Congress (NC) and the Samajwadi Party (SP). In contrast, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was ahead in around 40 seats.
However, the political landscape is shifting in 2024, giving the opposition a potential advantage. In Haryana, the BJP is facing significant resentment and infighting, which could work in the Congress’ favour. The discord within the BJP and public discontent over its performance creates an opportunity for the Congress to capitalise on this turmoil. In Delhi, Kejriwal’s arrest and subsequent release on bail has given the Ahmed Ahmed Party (AAP) an advantage. A wave of sympathy and Kejriwal’s solid leadership could lead to an electoral victory for the AAP, challenging the BJP’s previous dominance in the national capital.
A high voter turnout of 79.47% in West Bengal reflects active engagement in politics and Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is well placed to swing the seat in its favour. The party’s focus on grassroots mobilisation and regional issues has struck a chord with voters and could reverse the BJP’s vote share in the last elections. In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) is working hard to regain voter confidence. The party’s focus on caste dynamics and regional issues, coupled with strategic alliances, could see it perform better than in 2019.
Moreover, the Indian Union’s collaborative efforts and strategic alliances are likely to amplify its impact. The opposition has been focused on highlighting the government’s shortcomings, especially in addressing economic issues and social justice, which has resonated with voters seeking change. This phase is an opportunity for the opposition to show they are prepared to address these concerns and present a united front against the BJP.
In conclusion, the sixth phase of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections will be a pivotal moment for the opposition. By leveraging regional strengths, addressing local grievances, and presenting a cohesive alternative to the current government, the opposition has a concrete opportunity to make a big electoral gain.
— Author Prof. Sayantan Ghosh (@sayantan_gh) is a political commentator and columnist who teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College, Kolkata. The views expressed here are personal.
You can read his previous articles here
