The Democratic Party does not have enough obvious candidates to succeed him.
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Democrats don’t have many obvious candidates to succeed him, and many see Biden as a way to save the party from a tough nomination battle.
(Photo: PTI/Edited by: Quint)
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The question many are asking after the Biden-Trump debate is: “Is it too late for Biden to leave office in 2024?” Strictly speaking, no. Biden can declare that he is not seeking a second term for any reason.
A potential successor will likely have to be decided after a hard-fought battle at the Democratic National Convention, which runs from August 19 to 22 in Chicago.
Unless Democrats change the rules, delegates who have pledged to support Biden will attend the convention as “independents,” lobbying for and ultimately voting on a replacement.
Until now, it seemed unlikely that Biden would change course, but the president’s dismal performance in the televised debates appears to have changed that.
“Trump is running, so I have to run too.”
Many Democrats are more alarmed than ever and are calling for the president to step down. “Biden should be patriotic and step down. We need an open convention that excites the American people the like we’ve never seen before,” one Democratic source said. Financial Times.
David Plouffe, former campaign chairman for former President Barack Obama, described it in the paper as a “DEFCON 1 moment.”
So far, Biden has said,[Trump] “He’s running, so I have to run,” he said. He felt he had a big advantage, but that’s no longer evident.
Biden’s blue-collar background, support from moderate voters and ability to pitch himself as the most “electable” Democrat gave him the advantage in the last Trump-Biden match.
Democrats’ faith in Biden was rewarded in that general election, as he won key battleground states that voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
But the 2024 race looks set to be different. In addition to being a referendum on Trump, the president’s age and apparent hesitation in front of the cameras are bigger factors than ever.
No successor
But Democrats lack a clear successor pool, and Biden sees himself as someone who can save the party from a tough nomination battle.
Four years ago, many projected Vice President Kamala Harris to be Biden’s successor. Few would say the same now. If Biden’s poll numbers were disappointing, Harris’s were dismal: Her 39% approval rating is the lowest for a first-term vice president since Dan Quayle in the early 1990s.
Other well-known figures who ran for president in 2020, such as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, could follow Biden’s lead.
But it’s no coincidence that they lost to Biden in 2020. None of them could unite the moderate and progressive wing of the Democratic Party, much less win over the Republican and swing voters.
Some believe California Governor Gavin Newsom is already running a “shadow campaign” for the White House, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has said she would be “willing to be questioned” about running for president, but many see Newsom as too “Hollywood” and Whitmer as not subject to the same scrutiny on the national stage.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has also been rumored as a possible Biden replacement, but a hard-left populist who lacks the broad support of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would make a Trump victory all but certain.
Experts have also speculated about the possibility of a “savior” like former first lady Michelle Obama or TV legend Oprah Winfrey appearing at the Democratic National Convention — a liberal fantasy.
What happens next?
Biden had ample opportunity to ride off gracefully into the sunset. He could have said he’d accomplished everything he set out to accomplish. He could have said that younger generations wanted to be represented in politics.
Apparently, some senior members of the party believe there is still time to change course and will urge the prime minister to reconsider.
The Trump presidency will be, at best, unstable and will pose serious challenges to the norms and institutions of American democracy. At worst, it will be a “term of revenge,” a full expression of the ugly underbelly of the January 6th storming of the U.S. Capitol.
But Biden’s poor performance in the first debate may eventually turn some in his party against him, and many Democrats may be tempted to take one last chance and choose a different or younger candidate. But even if they do, there’s no guarantee they’ll win the next election.
(Thomas Gift is Associate Professor and Director of the Centre for American Politics at University College London (UCL).) This article is an updated version of an article first published before the June 27 presidential debate. It is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.
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