ISLAMABAD:
The federal government booked $321 billion in imports during the past five years, $30 billion more than import payments cleared by the central bank through banking channels in the same period, underscoring the urgent need to reconcile the huge discrepancy.
According to official records, Pakistan Single Window (PSW) booked imports worth $321 billion, while the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cleared $291 billion through banks from July 2020 to June 2025.
The PSW’s figures have not been reported earlier, as the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) had been issuing monthly trade bulletins based on data from the Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL).
One reason for the large difference between SBP and PSW data is that the central bank records only the cost of goods, while freight and insurance costs are treated separately. However, the magnitude of the discrepancy suggests that even after accounting for freight, the import value gap remains abnormally high, according to government sources.
The Express Tribune reported last week that imports recorded by PRAL were $11 billion lower than those reported by PSW for fiscal years 2023-24 and 2024-25.
Following the report, the central bank clarified that “the SBP’s trade data is computed mainly based on trade payments data received from banks; hence, there will be no significant revision in current account balance data already published by the SBP.” The central bank, however, noted that minor revisions may continue as per established practice.
The article compared PSW-booked imports with SBP data.
Government stakeholders told The Express Tribune that every banking and import transaction over the past five years needs scrutiny to resolve the discrepancy and determine the true source of payments for imports recorded by PSW. PSW-sourced imports are significantly higher than those reported by PRAL and the SBP.
During the same period – July 2020 to June 2025 – PRAL reported $16.5 billion less in imports compared to PSW figures, official records show.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) asked Pakistan to publicly disclose billions of dollars’ worth of trade data discrepancies. During discussions, the IMF recommended adopting a clear communication policy to explain these discrepancies and methodological changes to prevent mistrust between the government and data users.
Pakistan reportedly admitted to the IMF that the trade data submitted to the Geneva-based International Trade Centre (ITC) by PBS was incomplete, with some import figures missing. However, officials maintained that the underreporting was not due to malafide intent but stemmed from transitioning the trade data source from PRAL to PSW.
PRAL operates under the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), while PSW is an independent legal entity, though most of its officers come from the Customs Department. The FBR representative told the IMF that during internal scrutiny, the discrepancies initially appeared minor but have grown significantly in recent years.
The PBS had been reporting import figures based on PRAL data.
PBS informed the IMF that trade data analysis would be carried out with the support of all stakeholders and presented to relevant forums before inclusion in the statistical system. The IMF team stated that stakeholders should aim to correct and share previous years’ data with the Fund, according to sources.
The PSW data is considered more comprehensive, covering all import entries, particularly those related to trade facilitation schemes.
Sources suggested one possibility could be that importers might have made payments outside the banking system and misused export finance facilities to evade taxes. They added that raw materials could have been used for producing goods later sold locally.
The underreporting surfaced during an exercise aimed at reconciling trade data discrepancies between Pakistani importers and Chinese exporters. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had formed a committee to investigate the issue.
A joint team of FBR, PBS, PRAL, and PSW officials analysed five years of trade data. It found that PBS’s trade data was retrieved using a programmed query that had not been updated since 2017, leading to persistent underreporting of imports, which worsened in recent years. In fiscal year 2024-25, PSW booked $64.1 billion in imports, while SBP reported $59.1 billion, showing a difference of $5 billion. In 2023-24, PSW showed $60 billion imports compared to SBP’s $53.2 billion, a $6.7 billion difference.
The substantial variations between SBP and PSW data indicate the gap cannot be explained solely by freight payments, the sources said.
The highest single-year discrepancy occurred in 2021-22, when the SBP’s import total was $10.8 billion lower than PSW’s. That year, PSW recorded $82.3 billion in imports, PRAL $80.2 billion, and SBP only $71.5 billion.
In 2022-23, PSW booked $57 billion imports compared to $52.7 billion by the SBP, a $4.3 billion gap. In 2020-21, PSW showed $57.8 billion versus $54.3 billion by SBP, a $3.4 billion difference.
