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The commander of the US military in the Indo-Pacific region has accused China of pursuing a “boiling frog” strategy and escalating tensions in the region with increasingly dangerous military activities.
Adm. John “Lung” Aquilino said that during his three years as the U.S. commander in the Indo-Pacific, China has increased the pace of military development, matching improvements in its capabilities with more destabilizing actions.
“They’re getting more aggressive, they’re getting bolder, they’re becoming more dangerous,” Aquilino told the Financial Times in an interview before handing over command to Admiral Samuel “Pappy” Paparo next week.
Aquilino said China is increasing its aggressive actions through a “boil the frog” strategy, gradually raising the temperature and ensuring that the ultimate danger is underestimated until it is too late.
“There is a need to continue to account for China’s bad actions that violate legal international standards. And that story must be told by all countries in the region,” Aquilino said. He added that the Chinese government is rolling out a “justice and justice” strategy across the region.
The former Top Gun fighter pilot led the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command at a time when U.S.-China relations were tense. He was in charge when China responded to then-US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022 with unprecedented military exercises. He also commanded an airship believed to be a Chinese reconnaissance balloon to fly over the United States last year.
Asked what was the most nerve-wracking incident during his time in command, Aquilino said it was around the time of Pelosi’s visit, in part because China was using the visit as an escalatory change in U.S. policy. He said it was because of a misunderstanding. At the time, there were calls on Chinese social media for the People’s Liberation Army to shoot down Pelosi’s plane.
“The misunderstanding by the Chinese raised concerns that they might take actions that could actually be harmful,” Aquilino said.
Chinese warplanes now routinely fly over the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which previously served as a buffer zone between the two countries. Recently, China’s coast guard has also strengthened its stance around Taiwan’s Kinmen Island and Matsu Island.
“This is an ongoing pressure campaign. I’ve seen it grow in scope and scale, and it’s not slowing down,” Aquilino said. “It’s just getting more aggressive.”
Aquilino said China has not flown reconnaissance balloons over Hawaii, Guam or the mainland United States since the February 2023 incident. When asked if he had ever flown near the United States, he replied, “Let me just say I have never flown over the United States.”
He said the “best example” of China’s coercive activities was around Second Thomas Reef, a reef within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. China claims the feature despite a 2016 International Court of Arbitration ruling that China has no sovereign claim to the submerged reef.
Chinese coast guard vessels have taken aggressive actions in recent months, including water cannons, to prevent the Philippines from resupplying marines aboard the Sierra Madre. The Sierra Madre is a rusted ship that Manila ran aground on a reef in 1999 to strengthen her claim to the country.
“We are certainly very concerned about Second Thomas Reef,” Aquilino said. “Philippine Coast Guard and military personnel were injured. This is another step up the ladder beyond a pressure campaign.”
Since Joe Biden and Xi Jinping held a summit in San Francisco in November, Chinese warplanes have blocked the “dangerous and coercive” aerial intercepts of U.S. reconnaissance planes that have been frequent over the past two years.
Aquilino welcomed the development, but said it was clear that China used the eavesdropping as a “specialized tool in its toolbox” to do what it wanted.
He added that the People’s Liberation Army, which is reducing its assertive activities against the United States while still putting pressure on the Philippines, is demonstrating a bullying strategy that “may be correct.” “They believe they can get around this problem.”
Aquilino said he was concerned about other threats, including North Korea, which launched more missiles in 2023 than the previous total. He said he was paying close attention to cooperation between North Korea and Russia and deepening ties between China and Russia, which he called “very concerning.”
As he prepares to hand over command in Hawaii to Paparo, Aquilino said one of his biggest messages is the need to emphasize speed and urgency when it comes to operating and delivering capabilities, including to allies. Ta. These include sophisticated networks linking sensors and weapons, he said.
“Preventing this conflict requires urgency and speed in delivering new modernization capabilities.” [and] Our commitment to attitude,” Aquilino said.
