CNN
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President Vladimir Putin’s forces have made further advances on at least three locations on Ukraine’s Eastern Front. This included the first advance into northern Kharkiv in months, underscoring Kiev’s need for ammunition and weapons from the United States and other allies. .
Russian tactical advances are now a daily occurrence, reflecting a new tempo on the battlefield since the fall of the industrial city of Avdiivka in February.
The increase is usually modest, ranging from a few hundred meters to up to a kilometer of territory, but usually occurs in multiple locations at once.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s losses have been accompanied by criticism from influential military bloggers and analysts of the military’s official battlefield updates.
One of Russia’s main efforts is in the Donetsk region. Ukraine’s deep state monitoring group provides daily updates on changes in the front’s position, showing Russian forces advancing in eight different locations along 20-25 kilometers of the front in a 24-hour period. There is.
Military bloggers on both sides have reported that Russian forces have crossed the waterway and captured the settlements of Seminivka and Berdich, and Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Shirushkyi confirmed this in a Telegram post on Sunday. Russia had deployed up to four brigades for offensive operations in the region, Shirschiky said.
A few kilometers to the north, Soloviove is also reported to be now in Russian hands, as is the small hamlet of Keramik, at least in part.
“The withdrawal in the Donetsk operational zone continues,” wrote Ukrainian military blogger Miloshnikov.
Russian forces are also advancing on the industrial city of Krasnohorivka, a little further south, invading from the south and east.
Heavy fighting was reported around the town’s large brick factory. One Russian military blogger wrote about the significance of this battle: “The liberation of the refractory factory (sic) actually means the collapse of the Krasnokhorivka fortress, since the northern outskirts of the settlement are privately owned buildings and, if attacked, would be very difficult to defend. The plant is lost. ”
Elsewhere, about 180 kilometers (180 kilometers) to the north, Russian forces also scored their first victory in nearly three months along a part of the front that cuts into the Kharkov region.
A Ukrainian military spokesperson said Russian forces there had become “significantly more active” over the past day, while the deep state assessed that Russia had advanced one to two kilometers into the village of Kisrivka.
Overall, the front in the region is the most stable since Ukraine recaptured large tracts of territory in the Kharkiv region in late summer 2022.
Stringer/Anadolu, via Getty Images
Utility workers clean up debris from an overnight Russian rocket attack in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on April 27.
As withdrawals and losses pile up, military bloggers like Miroshnikov and deep state sites have both taken aim at Ukraine’s official communications, accusing the military of increasingly unrealistic information from the battlefield. There is.
In a Telegram post, the deep state released a graphic video showing the death of a Russian soldier in a drone strike in the village of Solovyov, raising concerns that individual incidents may overshadow the bigger picture. He accused the military of doing so. In the same way.
“We can happily watch the images of Russians[soldiers]being torn apart forever,” the deep state writes, “but there are other places nearby that need our attention. The Muscovites have taken the village under control. The (Ukrainian) Defense Forces are inflicting fire damage on them, and two-thirds of the villages are under the control of at least 10 villages. You can repeat this a billion times, but the reality is completely different. ”
This assessment that two-thirds of the village of Solovyové is under Ukrainian control was made on Ukrainian television on Saturday by Nazar Voloshin, a spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group. He said Ukraine still controlled two-thirds of nearby Oceletine and had possessions.
Meanwhile, the deep state has taken a different view, assessing that Russian forces have been in control of the center of the village of Oceretine, including the train station, for at least three days. The watchdog site made a similar complaint against the military last week, accusing “some spokespersons” of incompetence.
The commander of the Ukrainian military, Shirushkyi, addressed these concerns in a Telegram post on Sunday, appearing to suggest that the fluidity of the deployment was the cause of the misunderstanding.
“The situation is dynamic and some positions change multiple times a day, obscuring our understanding of the situation,” he wrote.
But he also acknowledged that the situation in Ukraine as a whole is deteriorating.
“The situation on the front is intensifying. In an effort to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front, the enemy is concentrating its main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means.” he added.
Narciso Contreras/Anadolu, via Getty Images
On March 4, Ukrainian military personnel aboard an armored aircraft carrier returned from the Seminivka battlefield near Avdiivka.
Russia last made small advances in the area in late January and early February, but the deep state estimates it has made an additional 1-2 km of inroads into the village of Kisliuka. Overall, the front in the region has remained relatively stable since Ukraine recaptured large tracts of territory in the Kharkiv region in late summer 2022.
Russian forces are also moving west of Donetsk and invading the industrial city of Krasnokhorivka from the south and east.
Heavy fighting was reported to have broken out around a large brick factory. One Russian military blogger wrote about the significance of this battle: “The liberation of the refractory factory (sic) actually means the collapse of the Krasnokhorivka fortress, since the northern outskirts of the settlement are privately owned buildings and, if attacked, would be very difficult to defend. The plant is lost. ”
Anatoly Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
Local residents sit at the entrance to an apartment building destroyed by shelling in Oceretine on April 15.
Many Western analysts, as well as Ukrainian officials, see Russia’s current increased pace as a harbinger of a larger attack attempt later this spring. The Russian government is also thought to be hoping to take advantage of its significant ammunition advantage before supplies from the United States, which were given the go-ahead last week after six months of political stagnation, reach the front lines.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that although there will be no major strategic defeat, there will be more short-term setbacks for Ukraine.
The paper said, “Russian forces are likely to make significant tactical advances in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for U.S. security assistance to arrive on the front lines, but there is a possibility that they will overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.” remains low.”
Ukraine’s other major quantitative weakness, which also helps explain its recent battlefield trajectory, is human resources. A new mobilization law will go into effect next month, which is expected to improve conscription procedures. However, it turns out that while Moscow continues to increase the number of soldiers, Kiev is very reluctant to say clearly how many more soldiers are needed.
“The quality (of Russian jets) will change, of course, but quantitative superiority is a serious problem,” Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Institute wrote in a post on X.
“Without a manpower advantage, Russia’s artillery and air power superiority will not be enough for Russia to gain on the battlefield. “Relative human resource conditions are likely to be the most important factor determining the trajectory of the war, whether conscription can be sustained or not,” Lee added.
