The recently concluded elections in the Maldives saw President Mohamed Muiz’s party, the People’s National Congress (PNC), secure a supermajority in parliament.The ruling party currently rules directly. 73 out of 93 items Domestic seats. Domestically, Muiz appears to have overcome his toughest political challenge yet. His strong control over the country’s parliament is likely to further strengthen his policies to diversify relations with India and strengthen cooperation with China. But a realistic and rational policy could persuade him not to completely alienate India.
Evaluation of election results
PNC’s victory can be attributed to several factors.First, as some Maldivian journalists suggest, In every parliamentary election since 2014, voters have empowered the president to run the government without issue. In this respect, it seems that this election is no exception. Secondly, there were many cases. abuse of national resources.some new projects have been done announced or takes office during or immediately before an election. The government also secured votes by offering political appointments.Since taking office, Mr. Muiz has appointed: 300 ministers served in his cabinet and approved several political appointments. state-owned enterprisesmany Even for free before the election. Third, Muiz’s nationalist rhetoric and India’s troop withdrawal appear to have increased public confidence in his campaign promises and massive infrastructure development. finally, buying votes This was also a tactic primarily carried out by all political parties in the election.
Two political strategies also likely worked in Muiz’s favor. First, to avoid further factionalism within the PNC, particularly between Yameen supporters and individuals loyal to Muiz, the ruling party encouraged some of its supporters to: Contest Independently. Second, the PNC, which had been alienated from the larger parties, made some concessions to the smaller parties. By not fielding a PNC candidate from the constituency, leader Muiz appears to have persuaded three parties – the Maldives Development Alliance (MDA), the Maldives National Party (MNP) and the Jumhooree Party (JP) – to contest from the limited number of seats.
These factors and strategies helped Muiz garner support from the PPM-PNC voting base, as well as floating voters and members of the JP, MNP, and MDA (see Table 2). This gave his party an overwhelming majority of 66 votes. Then, sflat Eleven independent MPs who were supported by Muiz have returned to his party. Support from MDA (2 MP), JP (1 MP), and MNP (1 MP) further increased his overall force to his 77 MP. thus giving Muiz and his PNC party significant power.
Table 1. Party representation in parliament and contested seats
|
political party |
reserved seats in parliament |
contested seats |
|
PNC |
66 people (+7 independents) |
90 |
|
Democratic Party |
12 |
89 |
|
Independent |
11(-7) |
130 |
|
MDA |
2 |
Four |
|
Japan |
1 |
Ten |
|
MNP |
1 |
2 |
|
Democratic Party |
0 |
39 |
|
AP |
0 |
Four |
sauce: Election Commission
Table 2. Number of party members and votes received
|
political party |
membership |
Total number of votes in Majlis elections |
Total number of votes during the presidential primary |
|
Democratic Party |
51,919 |
64,650 |
86, 161 |
|
PPM |
35,987 |
– |
– |
|
PNC |
28,236 |
101,120 |
101, 635 |
|
Japan |
18,186 |
3,141 |
5,460 |
|
AP |
8,746 |
2,538 |
– |
|
MDA |
8,516 |
4,071 |
– |
|
MNP |
7,807 |
1,060 |
1,907 |
|
Democratic Party |
4,404 |
4,635 |
15,839 |
|
Independent |
– |
29,175 |
– |
sauce: Election Commission
Meanwhile, the opposition parties, particularly the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), will be marginalized with only 12 members despite being eligible to serve on some parliamentary committees. The Democratic Party has not been able to attract more votes than the regular electorate. The party also received a significant drop in votes compared to the presidential primary (Table 2). They also failed to win seats in their traditional homelands. Adu. Dissatisfaction with the MDP leadership, corruption issues, and Muiz’s post-election parliamentary control appear to have cost them dearly.
Parties aligned with the Democratic Party also faced humiliating defeats. The MDP’s coalition partner, the Adaras Party, failed to secure any seats for the second consecutive term. The splinter parties splintered from the MDP and PPM-PNC, the Democratic Party and the People’s National Front, won zero seats despite being led by two former presidents. Democratic votes are limited to their voting base and have declined significantly since the presidential primaries (Table 2), indicating a decline in the Democratic Party’s importance in the political landscape. Thirty-five independent candidates recommended by the PNF and Yameen also failed to secure seats. Overall, opposition parties, especially mainstream parties, appear weakened and cornered in both the executive and legislative branches.
Strategic implications:
Mr. Muiz’s attempts to diversify relations with India are coupled with efforts to promote nationalism and garner domestic support. Muiz now has an overwhelming majority and is politically more stable and secure, motivating him to tone down his anti-India rhetoric and reconcile with Delhi. At the same time, however, our relationship with China remains unchanged.his party Continue It enjoys close ties with the Chinese Communist Party and recognizes China as an effective partner. Furthermore, China remains keen to increase its presence in the Maldives and counter India domestically.
China has made significant inroads into the Maldives in the past five months. In January 2024, Muiz signed more than 20 Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) to cooperate in blue, digital and green economy, human resources, disaster reduction, fisheries, agriculture, tourism, health, etc. A notable trend is that, unlike Yameen, China has increased its investment in small-scale community development projects and partnerships in recent years. Provided or donated ambulances, civilian vehicles, laboratory equipment, and 1,500 tons of bottled water. The company has built a desalination plant, a state-of-the-art seafood processing plant, a power plant for power generation, and has also launched smart utility services in the Maldives. With several projects such as the development of Las Mare Island and its residential complexes, the expansion of Velana Airport, the redevelopment of roads in Male, and three years of free maintenance of the Sinamare Bridge, the Chinese government intends to further increase its presence in the country. will be possible. The two countries are also strengthening defense cooperation through the Strategic Comprehensive Partnership and Defense Cooperation. defense agreement. The government also agreed to join China’s Global Security Initiative, World Civilization Initiative, World Development Initiative, and promote the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project.
Meanwhile, the new government is reducing dependence on India and checkmating some strategic investments with India. For example, China Port Engineering Company signed Memorandum of Recapture with Maldives 200 hectares We will clear the land of Utur Thira Farf (UTF) and build an agro-industrial park, which will be equipped with the latest technology such as drones. The project is in the same region as the Indian-funded UTF Coast Guard port, which could help China keep a close eye on Indian projects.So will China Develop A contingent of Indian troops is reportedly stationed at Kaddu airport, but they will soon be replaced by civilian experts. The government also suggestion The Indian government plans to move the Gurifalhu port to Thilafushi and open the latter to private investors, despite claims that Indian exports and imports will fund the reclamation of Gurifalhu and that only Indian companies can develop the port. It is said that Muiz recently claimed that India’s civilian experts in the Maldives will be stationed there as per the agreement. temporarily.Maldives is also trying reduce It depends on India for defence, food imports, health insurance, medicines and tourism.
Recent parliamentary victories are only likely to give Muiz further momentum in this foreign policy.This victory erased China’s previous victories. reservation Muiz had problems such as lack of power in parliament and distancing himself from Yameen.Chinese To welcome Recent election results further signal an intention to expand ties with the island nation over the next five years. With a supermajority in Congress, legislation for a free trade agreement with China could be passed without much scrutiny, projects (including those in India) could be unilaterally canceled, and laws such as There is also a big risk that the bill will be passed. foreign ownership What the islands looked like when Yameen was in power.Additionally, the government has also decided that revive A resort development project on undeveloped islands has been suspended since 2019.Some of these investments come from China, causing serious problems security concerns Before. Overall, India is likely to face increasing challenges from China as Muiz emphasizes closer ties with China.
Permanent status quo?:
This does not suggest that Muiz is politically safe with a pro-China policy for the next five years.
Even with a super majority, there is no guarantee that the government will function without bankruptcy. Like the ruling party, the opposition will likely exploit loopholes in the newly enacted anti-defection law to expand its power and reduce the ruling party’s unity in parliament. Buying votes from members may emerge as a more frequent phenomenon during this parliamentary term. Additionally, the Associated Press, MDP, Democratic Party, and PNF are likely to cooperate with each other to keep Mr. Muiz in check. Although they have no legislative or executive power, They may use their members and street forces to mobilize crowds and pressure governments on various fronts, including external action.
Similarly, a PNC majority would weaken some, if not all, of India’s influence. Weak parliamentary opposition allows Mr. Muiz to unilaterally cancel the project despite the economic costs and diversify the health system, medicines, tourism and food imports from India. However, India’s other strengths, such as its geographic proximity, economic growth, and development assistance, remain immune to elections. And if Mr. Muiz adopts a pragmatic and rational approach rather than being influenced solely by ideology or personal inclinations, he will be able to use these influences to advance the interests of the Maldives. First, he would not want to completely alienate India and reduce his diplomatic strategic options. In that case, Muiz is likely to maintain his pro-China tendencies but accept a cooperative relationship with India.
Aditya Gowdala Shivamurthy He is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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