Knut Bergmann and Matthias Diermeyer discuss the economic origins and development of Germany’s right-wing party Alternative for Germany, and how its rise will help mainstream parties control the future of Germany’s vibrant manufacturing industry. Discuss how it reflects voters’ concerns that they are not being protected.
Until the past decade, electoral studies have shown that, unlike in most European countries, populist radical right parties have permanently established themselves in Germany since the collapse of the National Socialist German Workers’ Party (Nazi) in 1945. I’ve been trying to understand why there isn’t. Founded in 2013, For Germany (AfD) has since filled this void at all three electoral levels of Germany’s political system (national, federal state, local government) and has expanded its influence is expanding.
The AfD’s initial rise can be attributed to its opposition to debtor countries during the European sovereign debt crisis following the Great Recession. Several countries in southern Europe and Ireland, with large public debts and failing banks, looked to the European Community, especially Germany, for a bailout. Many Germans were reluctant to fund these relief measures. Still, the AfD failed to win more than 5% of the vote in its first federal election in 2013, and was unable to enter the German Bundestag.
A few years later, Europe faced another crisis, with Germany receiving an influx of nearly 1 million refugees in 2015 and 2016 from countries such as Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. The AfD took advantage of growing anti-immigration sentiment among German voters, securing a record 12.6% vote share in the 2017 federal election. The AfD’s support level remained around this level from the end of the decade until the pandemic, when the party condemned lockdown measures and called for compulsory vaccinations.
But starting in 2022, the AfD has nearly doubled its support level to 20%. It once again exploited the economic security of the ongoing crisis, this time due to soaring energy prices sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Immigration has also returned to the forefront of the national political agenda, to the AfD’s advantage.
Modern German political economy and the sources of AfD’s strength ahead of the 2024 elections
Voters are now increasingly supporting the AfD’s criticism of the country’s tolerance for immigrants, economic sanctions against Russia, and the government’s attempts to implement ambitious policies to combat climate change. Economically, these voters see the German state as failing to protect the competitiveness of manufacturing.
In short, the AfD brings together voters from different social classes who are worried about their economic security and who want sanctions on Russia, support for immigrants and refugees, or a greener economy. The German state has been accused of sacrificing welfare for the transition. This perhaps explains why the AfD is making strong progress in regions with traditional car manufacturing hubs and where employment is based in energy-intensive industries. Although these regions are relatively wealthy, voters are feeling pressure from rising energy prices and the structural changes needed to meet Germany’s goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2045. The AfD will take part in the 2023 state elections in Bavaria, Germany’s largest and second richest state. In manufacturing areas, it defeated the Greens by an impressive 10.7 percentage points.
Despite concerns about their economic security, AfD supporters are highly critical of social welfare policies, an attitude similar to that of pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) voters. . This is particularly evident in AfD voters’ recent opposition to the introduction of more generous social welfare schemes, rent freezes, and plans to extend targeted welfare to poor children. In a recent opinion poll, 67% of AfD supporters said that “Social Security has been expanded so much that it is no longer worth working for,” and 87% said that “Social Security has been expanded so much that it is no longer worth working for.” “It’s an undue burden.” About the German social security fund. ” These were the highest numbers among the political parties surveyed.
Similarly, AfD supporters responded to Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court’s declaration that the 2021 supplementary budget, which transfers unspent coronavirus relief funds to the Climate Change Fund, violates Germany’s debt brake and is therefore invalid. 69% of respondents supported budget cuts and savings, while only 17% supported it. % supported suspending the debt brake. Only 5% supported tax increases. When asked why they support budget cuts, 84% of AfD voters cited cuts to social welfare, cuts to military aid to Ukraine (86%), and rebuilding the economy to be more climate-friendly. (82%).
As polling data shows, it is not just a sense of (economic) insecurity that is driving the AfD’s popularity among voters, but a sense that their security is being sacrificed for the sake of “non-Germans” That’s the awareness. Recently, the German government was forced to cut its budget again to comply with the debt brake. AfD representatives accused the government, led by a coalition of the pro-business FDP, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Greens, of “all recklessness”. […] These are the left-wing dreamers, the socialist ideologues, who are ruining Germany and its hard-working people. ” Their opinion is that only the welfare of “pensioners, employees or German citizens in need” should not be cut.
However, it remains unclear what economic policy proposals the AfD will actually implement if it follows its less radical sister parties across Europe to power. Like most European right-wing populists, the AfD focuses on free market policies such as taxation, labor markets, and energy policy, and should actually be able to gain support from the business community. In the run-up to the 2023 federal elections, the AfD has proposed income tax cuts comparable to those proposed by the FDP. The party strongly opposes phasing out coal-fired power generation and shutting down nuclear power plants. But the AfD also supports corporate policy, including ending the immigration of skilled workers (or any immigrants), rejecting free trade agreements, denying anthropogenic climate change, and, perhaps ironically, opposing vibrant state-run industries. Represents a position that the representative deems harmful. (They oppose state intervention in free markets). The party also supports the possibility of exiting the eurozone or European Union (Digigit), which some party officials say would free Germany from financial debts owed by less wealthy member states. He believes that budgets will be freed up and German companies will be freed from EU regulations.
While the party’s stance is nationalist, it is often economically liberal. This has led to inconsistency in the party’s stance, making it difficult for local, state and federal governments, including the AfD, to predict what it actually means for policy. For example, on a recent talk show, AfD economic policy spokesperson Leif-Erik Holm tried to dismiss the party’s consideration of Dixit, which party and parliamentary group leader Alice Weidell called a “last resort”. . When the government abolished agricultural subsidies, the party called for red diesel car tax and car tax breaks for farmers, contrary to its long-standing opposition to the issue and its general neoliberal position. Such a setback, similar to what Italy has seen under the rule of the right-wing populist Italian Brothers, will not push forward all of the extreme policies that the AfD is currently flaunting, but will remain moderate on other issues. It suggests that it will become. What matters is which of the current policies they decide to continue pursuing.
Regional policies, not social policies, could win back votes from AfD
The AfD is expected to do well in the upcoming 2024 EU elections, although centre-right candidate Ursula von der Leyen has a good chance of being re-elected as EU Commission president. Nevertheless, it is likely to be at the regional level that the future of the AfD will be determined, with mainstream parties and more centrist parties (FDP, Greens, SDP, sister centre-right Christian Democratic Union and Christian Democratic Union) (including social alliances) may be best at the local level. I’m ready to vote again. To regain popularity, centrist parties will need to explain how they will support Germany’s manufacturing industry, the backbone of the rural economy. This will require the country to explain how it will keep energy prices low despite sanctions against Russia and efforts to transition the country to a sustainable economy. It will also need to minimize regulatory burdens and provide the necessary infrastructure, such as hydrogen pipelines and equipment to capture carbon emissions. Unlike the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, regions dependent on German manufacturing continue to thrive. The recent rise of his AfD comes with a setback in this sector and the regions that depend on it. If centrist parties do not address these concerns, voters will continue to flock to the AfD, and in Germany there is a good chance that local and state governments in manufacturing hubs will be taken over by populists, as has happened in the developed countries mentioned above. .
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