- Written by Chris Mason
- BBC News Political Editor
There was a lot of noise and a lot of numbers.
And many of us don’t get much sleep.
And more results are expected to be announced this weekend.
But what is the current situation?
First, disastrous election results are becoming a dangerous habit for the Conservative Party.
There was a unified local election last year.
Several elections have been held since then.
Rishi Sunak’s situation has been consistently bleak.
If his premiership began with the twin aims of steadying the government’s ship and reviving the fortunes of the Conservative Party, it is no exaggeration to say that he has achieved the first of these.
He exercises various policy instruments. He comes up with ideas with passion. And they seem to have almost no effect on his or his party’s fate.
In contrast, and further darkening the mood for the Conservatives, is the relatively recently discovered winning formula for Labor, which needs to win a general election.
They were good at amassing large numbers of votes in places they had already won, but nowhere near enough votes in places they hadn’t won.
That seems to be changing.
But surprisingly, there is no sign, at least not yet, that this will spark a Tory revolt against the Prime Minister.
why? Because the consequences for them are severe, but perhaps not as dire as feared.
One senior official suggested that Conservative MPs had become “significantly colder”.
The former cabinet minister said the result was “not catastrophic”, but implicitly acknowledged that he had hinted at the possibility of a general election defeat.
Labor is confident of just that – these results show it is on track to win a majority when the whole country goes to the polls.
The Liberal Democrats see evidence of their ability to take advantage of the Conservatives’ woes. Let’s reform Britain too.
And the Green Party’s steady rise in local politics continues.
Essentially, these results will solidify the status quo: Labor will be energized, the Conservatives will be sullen, and the smaller parties will be weakened.
This brings us to the big picture – yes, the Conservatives are in a dire situation and Labor is in a strong position.
But remember: for Labor to win a general election, it needed, and still does, to perform surprisingly well by historical standards.
This central fact, and the relative fortunes of each party, will shape the conversation from now until the general election.
