Ah, it’s time for the final bracket predictions before Selection Sunday.
Sunday’s four games did not change the makeup of the NCAA Division I Tournament field, but Princeton’s victory over Penn moved the Tigers closer to earning a top-eight seed. But while Penn State has a winning streak in the top 10, Princeton doesn’t, and the Tigers’ loss to Brown last month meant they were the only teams to qualify for the play-in, other than two teams that could qualify for the play-in. It was the team’s worst loss.
The final at-large bids will likely come from Penn State and Penn State. The Quakers have a top-5 win (at Duke) and Penn State has a top-10 win (Maryland is neutral). Both have four wins in the 11-20 range (Penn State beat Cornell, Yale, Michigan, and Villanova; Penn beat Cornell twice, Villanova and Harvard; (also broke). Both have lost outside the top 20. Penn State has the edge in his RPI.
The guess here is that Penn State will collect that spot, but it’s a closer decision than expected.
One of the adjustments from the morning was to have Princeton play Penn State for the second year in a row and Georgetown play Maryland. Would the committee want to avoid a first-round rematch or a regular-season rematch (Maryland beat Princeton in February)? Or does it matter?
If the final prediction of eight seeded teams is correct, that means all general selections will play at home and all automatic qualifiers will be unseeded, regardless of order. It’s just a rare habit.
The following is based on RPI data available as of Sunday afternoon, May 5th.
Automatic qualifying (9)
team |
WL |
RPI |
SOS |
T5 |
T10 |
T20 |
Loss 21+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| princeton | 11-4 | 9 | 12 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 5-3 | In brown (42) |
| george town | 12-3 | Ten | 20 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4-2 | At Loyola (25) |
| michigan | 10-6 | 14 | 6 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3-5 | Rutgers (28) |
| St. Joseph | 12-3 | 15 | 31 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-3 | — |
| towson | 13-3 | 16 | 35 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | At Loyola (25) |
| lehi | 10-6 | twenty one | twenty five | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2-4 | Loyola (25), Rutgers (28) |
| Utah | 12-4 | twenty three | 43 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | Ohio State University (21), Air Force (38) |
| Sacred Heart | 13-4 | 33 | 65 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 losses 21+ |
| albany | 9-7 | 36 | 42 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 4 losses 21+ |
george town From 1989 to 1994, they joined North Carolina as the only Division I men’s lacrosse teams to win six consecutive conference tournament titles. The Hoyas have won every Big East tournament since 2018 (no tournament in 2020) and will make their 17th NCAA Tournament appearance by winning two overtime games in three days. … princeton They look like a team that has survived the playoffs the last three weeks in lacrosse. The Tigers defeated Penn 18-11, clinching an NCAA trip for the third year in a row and finishing 23rd overall.
michigan They defeated Penn State 16-4 in the Big Ten finals to earn their second straight automatic bid. The Wolverines have to fly somewhere, and someone has to fly to Denver. It’s hard to imagine the Commission inheriting that combination. … St. Joseph They won the Atlantic 10 final, beating Richmond. The Hawks will make their second NCAA trip. The first was in 2022 when they lost to Yale. …
towson They defeated Delaware 15-6 in the CAA, returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. The Tigers will be making their 16th appearance in NCAA history and sixth under coach Sean Nadelen. It seems like… lehi If they win the Patriot League finals, it would be a good fit (both geographically and in terms of competitive balance) to visit the No. 3 seed, which could be either Johns Hopkins or Syracuse. The Mountain Hawks defeated Boston University in the Patriot League finals to earn their fourth NCAA appearance and first since 2021.
Utah will take on Jacksonville in the Atlantic Sun final, and bracket alignment suggests Duke is a likely first-round destination for the Utes. The committee will need three flights to put together a competitive bracket, as the play-in winner from the East Coast will go to Notre Dame and Michigan State will also need a flight. … Sacred Heart They made their NCAA tournament debut by defeating Manhattan in the Metro Atlantic final. The Pioneers are considering Wednesday’s schedule for a play-in game. …
albany They defeated the University of Vermont in the America East final and earned their 11th NCAA appearance since 2018. The Great Danes will likely be headed to a play-in game.
