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When Xi Jinping arrived in Italy as a state guest in 2019, he received a lavish welcome that included a private tour of Rome’s landmarks and a dinner serenaded by opera singer Andrea Bocelli, but on top of that was the crowning glory: Italy’s decision to join Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road initiative led to the highest level of excitement. Road infrastructure initiatives.
Five years later, the Chinese leader returned to Europe in a completely different environment. President Xi arrived in France on Sunday, and while the pomp and ceremony may remain during his six-day European tour, views of China across the continent have changed dramatically since his last visit.
In the past few weeks alone, the European Union has launched trade investigations into Chinese procurement of wind turbines and medical equipment, and raided the offices of Chinese security equipment maker Nuktec as part of a subsidy investigation. Germany and Britain have also arrested or charged at least six people in recent days on suspicion of espionage and related crimes linked to China.
And in March, Italy formally withdrew from the Belt and Road Initiative, losing its only G7 member to the program and dealing a blow to China and its leaders.
The move comes as economic dissatisfaction grows, the EU prepares for a possible major trade conflict with China, and China deepens its ties with Russia due to its war with Ukraine. This has led to growing suspicions about Beijing’s global ambitions and influence.
“In many European capitals, China is increasingly seen as a multidimensional threat. However, there is no question of how quickly and to what extent we should move forward in addressing concerns about China, both economically and security-wise. Opinions are divided even within Europe,” said Noah Barkin, a Berlin-based visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
Mr. Xi’s current tour, which includes stops in France, Serbia and Hungary, is an opportunity to win over his critics, but while views have hardened in some parts of Europe, others It is also an opportunity to show that China is still welcomed with open arms.
The move would come at a bad time for the country’s struggling economy, as Beijing is keen to weaken European efforts to address allegations of trade distortion. He also wants to prevent Europe from getting any closer to the United States, especially with the outcome of the next U.S. presidential election uncertain.
Unless President Xi is prepared to make surprise concessions, a major breakthrough with China’s harshest critics will be difficult. And analysts say the visit could instead highlight divisions not just between Europe and China, but within Europe that could work in China’s favor.
Abaka Press/Sipa Pres/Sipa/AP
Italian President Sergio Mattarella and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Quirinale Presidential Palace in Rome, Italy, March 23, 2019.
Mr. Xi’s visit is expected to begin with one of his harshest critics.
The Chinese leader is scheduled to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday, along with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Ms von der Leyen spearheaded the EU’s call to “jeopardize” supply chains from China due to concerns over the security of key technologies, and France’s support for the influx of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). is promoting a high-stakes anti-subsidy investigation. Import to Europe.
The move is seen as retaliation for China’s investigation into the price of EU brandy earlier this year, which could hurt France’s cognac sector.
At the meeting, Mr. Xi is likely to reinforce Beijing’s message that “risk aversion” from China is dangerous for Europe, but he will also emphasize Europe’s response to China’s overcapacity and subsidy allegations. It will likely push aside concerns and instead emphasize the role that Chinese EVs can play in European and global mitigation efforts. Fossil fuel use.
President Xi used similar rhetoric during a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Beijing last month, in which the German leader asked China about recent signs of divergence over China policy between Brussels and Berlin. It was criticized by critics as being too lenient.
But without concrete trade or reciprocal market access commitments, von der Leyen hopes such talks will find a way to address perceived trade distortions in the run-up to EU parliamentary elections in June. It is unlikely to move his needle, observers say.
Ahead of Xi’s visit, Mr Macron also signaled his desire to promote economic ties.
“I am asking for an ‘aggiornamento’ because China currently has overcapacity in many areas and is exporting a lot to Europe,” the French president told French news agency La Tribune. – In an interview with Dimanche on Sunday, he used the Italian word for modernization.
But Mr Xi believes he may have a better chance of winning friendship during his one-on-one time with Macron, which includes not only talks in Paris but also what Elysée sources say will be in the south of France. It is expected to include more “personal” time in the Pyrenees. .
“France has developed a reputation of being a fairly independent actor within the EU and willing to create some space with the US,” said Chong Jia Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
“Mr. Xi may want to work with Mr. Macron to see if it is possible to bring North America closer to the European side,” Chong said, while at the same time establishing ties with this important EU player. He said he wants to strengthen the relationship.
In a statement released by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs after his arrival, Xi said that through their relations, the two countries have demonstrated “a model for the international community of peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation between countries with different social systems.”
Jack Witt/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron visited the garden in Guangdong province during Macron’s state visit last April.
The Ukraine war, a key sticking point in Europe-China relations, is also expected to be on the agenda at the meeting early this week, with Mr. May try to strengthen it.
“President Xi will brief President Macron on China-Russia relations…China can be an intermediary to bridge the gap between Europe and Russia,” said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. He pointed out future relations with China. A peace summit to be held in Switzerland as a potential forum for promoting diplomacy.
But despite repeated efforts by President Xi to leverage his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Beijing has done little to move the Kremlin toward a European vision for peace in Ukraine. looks like. Russian state media said President Putin plans to visit China this month.
Xi’s visit comes as the United States and its European allies become increasingly concerned that China’s exports of military and civilian products to Russia are fueling a war machine. Beijing defends the trade as a normal part of bilateral relations.
Mr. Macron and Mr. von der Leyen are likely to warn Mr. Xi that relations between the two countries “risk further deterioration” if China continues to provide these supplies, Mr. Barkin said in Berlin.
But “there is little evidence that these messages are leading to any significant changes in the behavior of the Chinese government,” he said, adding that “in the near term” Europe could be more aggressive in imposing sanctions on Chinese companies selling these goods. He added that there is a possibility that he will make a decision on the matter.
Xi’s trip to Serbia and Hungary is likely to be less controversial, and observers say Beijing likely took that into account when planning the trip.
“In Belgrade and Budapest, President Xi doesn’t have to listen to the criticism he hears in other European capitals,” Barkin said. “Their leaders welcome Chinese investment and see no problem with China’s deepening ties with Russia.”
Xi’s visit to Belgrade coincides with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which killed three people. The attack, part of a broader NATO bombing campaign in the Balkans in spring 1999, sparked Beijing’s deep hostility toward the alliance, even though the United States claimed it was an accident.
President Xi’s commemoration of the event could highlight deep rifts between China and NATO, with Beijing calling it an embodiment of US overreach and a threat to Europe’s security challenges. The view is that this is the root cause of this, and that this is bringing China closer to Russia.
President Xi may also consider highlighting Chinese investments in both Belgrade and Budapest in messages to other European countries.
Non-EU member Serbia, which Beijing described as an “ironclad” friend earlier this week, has strengthened trade and investment ties with China under President Aleksandar Vučić.
In January, the Balkan countries announced a deal that would see more than $2 billion in Chinese investment in wind and solar farms and hydrogen production facilities, Reuters reported at the time.
In Hungary, Mr. Xi will seek to deepen ties with increasingly authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is a valuable ally of China in the European Union, where he has blocked or criticized EU efforts to hold China accountable on human rights issues.
The Central European country is also becoming increasingly important as a European production base for Chinese car suppliers, including EV manufacturers. Analysts say this situation could help Chinese companies avoid existing and potential EU tariffs.
That means Mr. Xi is likely to end his tour in a completely different way than he started.
“At least we can say that Mr. Xi’s support is quite widespread,” Chong said.
