Maryland’s U.S. Senate race is already the most expensive political race in the state’s history, but that’s only in the Democratic primary.
Maryland’s U.S. Senate race is already the most expensive political race in the state’s history, but that’s only in the Democratic primary.
U.S. Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are vying for the Democratic nomination to succeed longtime U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin.
Normally, the winner of the May 14 primary would advance the runway to the Senate in a blue state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1.
But this is not a time for normal politics.
The winner of the Democratic primary is expected to face former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who won two terms in Annapolis and is popular for his formidable fundraising skills.
In addition to shaping up as Maryland’s most competitive U.S. Senate race in decades, the race has national implications for Washington Republicans as they seek to regain control of the Senate.
“Democrats have a slim majority in the Senate, so the stakes are very high,” said David Karol, an associate professor in the University of Maryland School of Political Science.
“It’s going to be very difficult for them to maintain a majority like this, and I don’t see how they’re going to maintain a majority if they lose this seat in Maryland. So here in the Maryland Senate race. There is a lot at stake for national politics in a very unusual way.”
unprecedented campaign costs
Tron is currently spending well over $50 million of his own money on his U.S. Senate campaign.
No candidate in Maryland has ever spent this much money on a political seat before, or even close. The 2016 Democratic Senate primary race between current Sen. Chris Van Hollen and former Rep. Donna Edwards totaled nearly $15 million.
Mr. Albrooks has criticized Mr. Tron for wasting so much money, but the lawmaker has made no apologies for spending his own money.
Mr. Tron, the founder of Total Beverage and More, is not just trying to defeat Mr. Alsobrooks, but because he believes he is the only one with the money to defeat Mr. Hogan in the general election. , said he plans to use whatever he needs.
The biggest difference between the two candidates is campaign finance. Mr. Allbrooks has raised just under $8 million for his campaign, a significant amount but only a fraction of Mr. Tron’s war chest.
There is little clear day between the two on this issue, with each advocating positions similar to the Democratic Party on many issues.
Were the Democrats blind?
In any case, Tron would have spent a lot of money on his campaign, but the delay in Hogan’s candidacy clearly changed the balance of power on the Democratic side.
Mr. Karol said that when Mr. Tron and Mr. Alsobrooks entered the race, they did not expect to be running against “serious Republican opponents.” As he pointed out, Maryland hasn’t had a Republican senator in more than 40 years, since Sen. Charles Mathias was reelected in 1980.
“I think they were blindsided by this,” Karol said. “And right now, the election potential is a key concern, especially given the fact that there is not much separation between Mr. Tron and Mr. Allsbrooks on the issues.”
Hogan was on record as saying he had no interest in running for Senate until he decided to jump into the race in February.
Given Mr. Hogan’s formidable political talent, Democrats are reconsidering their primary.
Karol said it’s natural for many Democratic voters to ask themselves, “Okay, who among these can secure a victory?”
Republicans have high hopes for Hogan.
It’s no secret that Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell thinks some of the 2022 Republican Senate candidates are lackluster.
But Republicans have a favorable map to regain the Senate majority this fall, and allowing Hogan to run in Maryland is a no-brainer for the Republican Party, where Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said It was a major political coup for him.
Daines is a key figure in the Republican Party who helped elect Republicans to the Senate.
“I think it’s a huge benefit for the Republican Party,” Karol said of Hogan’s candidacy.
Karol points out that with Sen. Joe Manchin not running for re-election in West Virginia, Democrats have effectively lost a Democratic seat in the heavily red state.
Therefore, if former President Donald Trump is re-elected, Republicans could regain the majority in the Senate by winning just that seat, which would be a 50-50 tie.
Even if President Biden were to win re-election, Republicans would only need to pick up more seats to make it 51-49. And Democratic incumbents face tough Senate races in states like Montana and Ohio.
“So, before Democrats got the news that the Maryland race would have to be seriously fought to hold the seat, they were in a bind and faced a huge challenge to hold onto the Senate. I didn’t expect that,” Karol said.
As a result, Maryland will receive national political attention.
Senate Minority Leader McConnell recently told Politico that Maryland is a mix of four states with Republican intervention.
But first, voters will decide the Democratic nominee for the Senate on March 14, as well as the Republican nominee.
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