You can’t get any closer.
Six months before Election Day, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump trailing 37% to 37, with millions of Americans’ votes still at stake. The percentage is the same.
While the country’s intense polarization has shaken many political preferences, one in four (24%) registered voters say they may change their minds ahead of the November election, with 12% saying they may change their minds ahead of the November election. He says he hasn’t made a choice yet. New research offers a roadmap of who is most amenable to appeal in a campaign shaped by sharply divided views on abortion, immigration and the former president’s unprecedented criminal trial currently underway in New York. .
Additionally, 8% currently support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and an additional 5% support other third-party candidates. Most of their supporters acknowledge that they may switch allegiance before voting.
One of those surveyed, Tiffany Batton, 43, an independent from Chicago, plans to vote for Biden. “He inherited a lot of problems from the previous administration,” the social worker said in a subsequent phone interview. “I think if we have a chance, and we have four more years, we can accomplish some of our campaign promises.”
Preparing to vote: See who’s running for president and compare their positions on important issues with our voter guide
But what happens in the Middle East and elsewhere may change her mind. “The war in Israel has really weighed on me,” she said.
Brett Watchum, a 36-year-old Denver delivery clerk and independent, supports Kennedy because of his positions on housing and because he is “the only person who isn’t part of the horrible United Party machine.”
He acknowledged that he may switch support “if a Libertarian candidate turns out to be a better candidate.”
The poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted Tuesday through Friday by landline and cellphone, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Candidates have a limited amount of time to make their case.
David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University, said: “Given the upcoming election campaign with 26 weeks to go, I think people will be less interested in politics and the conventions in July and August.” There must be,” he said. “That means a candidate has only 17 weeks to actively campaign, but when you factor in states where early voting starts weeks before Election Day, he actually has 13 to 14 weeks. .
“We’re basically on the verge of an election, and the outcome is a coin toss.”
Biden gains among black voters, Trump loses among young voters
A new poll shows that Biden’s standing against Trump is gradually improving, albeit within the poll’s margin of error.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk poll conducted in January showed Biden trailing Trump by 3 points (34% to 37%), and in March he trailed Trump by 2 points, at 38% to 40%. It was getting worse. Now it’s even.
Since the beginning of the year, Mr. Biden has been gaining support among some key voters, while Mr. Trump has been losing ground.
- Since the January survey, Mr. Biden has gained 1 point among voters under 35, while Mr. Trump has lost 12 points. Biden currently holds a 34% to 25% lead, which is not the overwhelming lead he had in the 2020 election.
- Biden’s support among Hispanic voters remained unchanged, but Trump’s support fell by 11 points. Biden currently leads 34% to 28%, still short of his 2-1 advantage in 2020.
- Among independents, Biden gained 5 points and Trump lost 4 points. Currently, the two are almost evenly matched, with Trump at 27% and Biden at 26%. A similar number, 22%, are undecided, and 23% support a third-party candidate.
- Among black voters, Mr. Biden has gained 7 points since January, while Mr. Trump’s ranking has remained unchanged. They now support Biden 64% to 12%, which is better than before but still far behind the 87% who voted for Biden in 2020.
The White House recently announced policy decisions and aired political ads that particularly appeal to some young, floating voters, including moves to loosen federal regulations on marijuana and relieve some college student debt. This month, Biden is scheduled to give a commencement address at Morehouse College, a historically black school.
Who is participating?Young voters, Hispanic voters, independents, RFK supporters
The strength of third-party candidates can be built on sand.
Eight in 10 Kennedy supporters say they may change their minds before voting. So do 88% of independent Cornel West supporters, 65% of those planning to support a Libertarian candidate, and 58% of Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Support for third-party candidates typically declines as Election Day approaches, but in close elections, the impact of only a few thousand voters in battleground states can swing the outcome.
In 2016, Green Party candidates stole votes from Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, but ultimately lost in the key states. In 2020, Libertarian candidates drew voters away from President Trump in key states that Trump lost: Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.
“I’m leaning toward Joe Biden, and I’ll tell you why. I look at his economic record,” said Al Wilson, 56, an independent and production manager for an automaker from Shelby, Michigan. “I did,” he said. . He credits the president with helping the economy recover after the COVID-19 pandemic.
He also referred to Biden’s “demeanor” as president, implicitly drawing a contrast with Trump. “We need leadership that is not always involved (in) the news cycle,” he said. “I’m sick of it. I don’t want to hear that. I don’t want to hear arguments. I don’t want you to be in arguments all the time.”
Other floating voters, including 43% of independents, also say they may change their minds by November. Almost half of independent women, 47%, were persuaded, which is one reason why the Biden campaign is so focused on abortion access as an issue.
Some groups that the Democratic Party relies on in national elections say their views are not solidified. This includes 37% of Hispanic voters, 27% of black voters, and 44% of voters under 35.
More than two-thirds (69%) of those surveyed said the country was “on the wrong path”. Less than one in four (23%) said they were heading in the right direction. This is slightly less positive than the national mood in the March survey.
“I haven’t made up my mind yet,” said Emily Weller, 39, a Republican from Indianapolis. “I won’t vote for former President Trump, and I don’t think I’ll vote for President Biden either,” said the stay-at-home mom. “My vote matters to me and I want to vote, but it’s not that simple.”
“Everything is better under Trump.”
And there are voters who clearly aren’t participating.
Among those who currently support Biden, 84% to 14% say they are firm on their views. Trump supporters similarly range from 83% to 16%.
“Everything was better under Trump,” declared Mike McCombs, 67, a Republican and independent insurance agent in Lincolnton, Georgia. “The economy is better. Fuel prices are better. Biden has suffocated the middle class.”
Even if Trump is found guilty in his current trial on charges related to hush-money payments to porn stars, his views won’t change. “I would probably support him more because this is a rigged trial anyway,” he said.
Candidates from both major parties solidified their positions within their ranks. 87% of Democrats now support Biden, up 7 points from January. 84% of Republicans support Trump, an increase of 5 points.
They ignore 2% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans and cross the aisle to support the other major party’s presumptive nominee.
“I liked the way he ran the country when he was first president,” said Stephen Harrison, 52, a small business owner and Trump supporter from Manhattan, Montana. “The economy comes first. He’s done a good job of running things and staying open as best he can during the pandemic.
“The only thing that would change my mind is if he’s not on the ballot,” he said.
Frances Spitale, 60, a Democrat from Charleston, South Carolina, who is caring for a newborn, said her support for Biden is unwavering.
“Are all policies perfect?” she asked. “No. But I respect him as a good, decent human being, and he was able to accomplish more in two or three years than many other presidents have been able to accomplish.”
She dismissed those who argue that Biden, at 81, is too old to serve another term.
“No one ever said the[Rolling]Stones were too old to do a concert. Bruce Springsteen is 73,” she said. “If you’re a highly productive person, you don’t need to skateboard or ski to be more efficient.”
