Guilty?
By nearly 3 to 1, Americans expect former President Donald Trump to be convicted of all or some of the felonies he faces in a New York courtroom, an outcome unprecedented in U.S. history.
An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll reveals 34 charges that President Trump tried to influence the 2016 election by paying hush money to porn stars and then falsifying business records to cover it up. Of these, 65% expect a guilty verdict on at least some of the charges.
Only 23% of those surveyed, a disproportionate number of Trump supporters, said they thought Trump would be acquitted.
“From what I’ve read and heard, there was no violation of any law,” said Jack Hunnicutt, 76, a real estate agent in Warner Robins, Georgia, who is a Republican and supports Trump. He called the trial a “travesty.”
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“I hope he’s not convicted, but you never know in New York,” Hunnicutt said in a subsequent phone interview.
Never before has a former president faced criminal charges, and never before has a major party’s presidential nominee been indicted so close to election day.
Trump supporters are divided on whether there will be a conviction, with 44% expecting a guilty verdict on at least some charges and 43% expecting a not guilty verdict on all charges. I expect it to go down.
But nearly all of President Joe Biden’s supporters, 86% to 7%, expect Trump to be found guilty on at least some charges.
“It’s about time we caught him and brought him to justice,” said Beth Corliss, 77, a retired biomedical engineer from Tucson, Arizona. A political independent and Biden supporter, she said Trump had previously engaged in financial fraud in business transactions. “I’m happy that it’s finally on sale.”
The poll, conducted between April 30 and May 3 among 1,000 registered voters via landline and mobile phones, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Overall, 15% expect Trump to be convicted of all 34 felonies, 50% expect him to be convicted of some felonies, and 23% expect he will be convicted of none. There is.
The jury will decide, but the public’s opinion will resonate.
Of course, public opinion does not determine the outcome of the trial. That will be up to the 12 jurors listening to testimony in Manhattan Criminal Court, with President Trump sitting in front of them in the defendant’s box.
But the public’s assessment will influence subsequent consequences, including whether Americans accept the jury’s verdict as legitimate.
President Trump has blasted the trial, claiming without evidence that the charges were orchestrated by Biden and accusing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of being politically motivated. President Trump lashed out at Judge Juan Machan, who found him guilty of contempt of court for mocking a witness after being warned not to do so.
President Trump’s complaint has received some attention, with 44% to 39% of those surveyed overall saying the trial was not fair. Independents were split 37% to 37% on the fairness of the trial. Among men, white voters, Hispanic voters, and people over 65, more say the trial is unfair than fair.
That includes an overwhelming 85% of Trump supporters, compared to just 11% of Biden supporters.
“It’s basically a charlatan,” said Debbie Walta, 67, a retired Republican and Trump supporter from Helena, Montana. “If they actually thought they had legs, they would have done it before he was re-elected.”
Unfair in another sense: Special treatment for Trump?
Some of those surveyed argued that unfairness is a benefit to Trump, not a danger to him.
“I think it makes sense that he should go to trial,” said Karima Muhammad, 57, of Tallahassee, Fla., a policy analyst for the state government. She is a Democrat who supports Biden. “But it’s unfair in that if someone else had a gag order and violated it as often as he did, they would be in jail.”
Even those who are hopeful of a conviction in the justice system do not know how much of an impact it will have on the political movement.
“His supporters will be even more emboldened because they will be seen as a government that is exploiting Donald Trump,” said Stephen Dombrowski, 76, a retired Democrat from Grand Island, New York. Told. “If anything, I think they will provide more concrete support. Either way, I don’t think we will lose.”
