The season of political change has arrived in Mexico. On June 2, millions of Mexicans will head to the polls to elect a new president, state governors, and federal, regional, municipal, and city council members. In total, nearly 21,000 positions are expected to be filled in this election.
But Mexico’s election season is also a season of political violence. From 2018 to March 2024, there were 1,709 targeted attacks, murders, assassinations, and intimidations against political and government workers or government and political party facilities. Most of these attacks occurred in the run-up to the elections. This year is no exception.
In fact, if current statistics are followed, Mexico’s 2024 election season is likely to be the deadliest in the country’s history. In the first two months of this year, 33 political figures were assassinated. And that number has steadily risen as the election approaches.
Violence against Mexican politicians is common. But the country’s powerful organized gangs have stepped up political violence during elections as they seek to ensure compliance and business opportunities for incoming candidates.
Mexico’s most famous political assassination occurred 30 years ago, in the run-up to the 1994 general election. Luis Donaldo Colosio, a charismatic presidential candidate who vowed to reform a historically authoritarian political culture, was shot and killed during a campaign rally in the border city of Tijuana.
Associated Press/Alamy Stock Photo
His murderer was an apparently apolitical factory worker, Mario Aburto Martinez. But critics have long rejected official confirmation that Mr. Aburt acted alone. They claim drug cartel leaders and others with vested political interests were behind the assassination, fearing a future crackdown on their activities.
Colosio’s reformist policies advocated a shift further to the left, away from pro-market privatization policies. This weakened both the criminal fraternity and the established political order.
It’s not just high-ranking politicians who are at risk. Mexican politicians at all levels, especially those holding or seeking regional positions, continue to be targeted by organized crime-related violence. For example, on April 20, 2024, her two mayoral candidates were killed in separate attacks in different regions of the country.
One of them, Alberto Garcia, was running for mayor of San Jose Independencia, in the southern state of Oaxaca. Victims of such violence come from all political walks of life and political parties. But gangs fear changes to the status quo and most often target candidates who challenge the incumbent.
gangs have a lot to lose
Elections present a great business opportunity for Mexican criminal organizations. Previously, their economic interests were strictly limited to drug production and retail. However, in recent years they have sought to diversify their economic interests and take advantage of new opportunities.
In Mexico, local governments have considerable economic power. They receive state and federal funding to work on infrastructure projects in the area, such as building roads, schools, and hospitals. Gangs have started demanding to be the providers of these projects, which could result in misallocated funds being siphoned off from project management.
Research shows that drug cartels exert their will not only through political assassinations, but also by fielding their own candidates or funding the campaigns of candidates who allow drug cartels to operate. It is known that When there is opposition from rival candidates, it often leads to heated debacles.
This sentiment was echoed by outgoing Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador in early April. he said: [the cartels and criminal gangs] We make a deal and say, “This person is going to be mayor.” We don’t want anyone else to register to run,” and anyone who registers, well, they know. [what to expect]”.
Another factor contributing to the acceleration of political violence in Mexico is the fragmentation of criminal organizations within the country. Previously, there was a clear vertical organization of the cartel hierarchy. This has allowed certain cartels to nominate candidates for certain political positions with little meaningful opposition.
Front Page/Shutterstock
However, Mexico’s major cartels have split into separate branches. As they did so, competition intensified and they began to face candidates from opposing camps. This led to more direct violence against political candidates competing for the same posts.
Simply put, the continued violence against politicians and political candidates in Mexico reflects competition between various organized crime groups for territorial consolidation and lucrative business opportunities.
Fear of angering criminal organizations often prevents well-intentioned politicians from running for office. In some of the most rural parts of the country, where organized crime groups are most powerful, cartels’ preferred candidates have historically won races unopposed. And a wave of violence ahead of the 2024 election has already forced dozens of candidates in several states to withdraw from the race, fearing for their lives.
In a region of the world marred by coups, counter-coups, and dictatorships, Mexico has always been a shining example of a nation adhering to strict democratic credentials. This record is now at risk of being tainted by the violent interference of criminal organizations in the country’s political process.
