Much of the discussion surrounding the New York Mets this season has centered on Pete Alonso’s future, specifically whether he will be traded or re-signed. (Both could end up being true.)
One of those discussions is whether the Mets want to keep Alonso, a raw slugger who has been the face of the team since entering the league in 2019, on a big deal that locks him into the organization until his late 30s. His recent piece points to some very real concerns, which rivals warned Will Sammon of The Athletic in 2023 in an article published Thursday.
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A longtime National League scout for a rival team said this to me at the end of last season. “He’s either going to do more damage or start walking more. His tendencies aren’t very good.”
Alonso did nothing to allay those fears, but his .212/.297/.445 slash line (115 OPS+), nine home runs, and 19 RBIs tell part of the story. Just there.
Here’s a look at the 29-year-old Alonso’s future at-bat through 36 games (155 at-bats) (provided by Statcast and FanGraphs).
Maximum exit speed: His 113.8 mph speed is still elite, but not at the level he’s shown throughout his career. His career top speed is 118.4 mph, and he hit 115.7 mph last season, but he’s been on a decline for four years now.
Exit speed: His average exit velocity has dropped to a career-low 86.6 mph, which ranks in the bottom 19th percentile. He averaged 89.5 mph last season.
Barrel rate: At 12.3%, it ranks in the 82nd percentile. That’s lower than last year (14.7%) and lower than his career 14.1%, but he still shows the ability to do damage and hit the ball at optimal angles.
Expected batting average: His .234 batting average is the lowest of his career, continuing a downward spiral over the past three seasons. His career is .255 xBA.
Expected slugging percentage: His .416 batting average is the lowest of his career, down slightly from last season’s .527 batting average.
Hard hit rate: Statcast defines a “hard hit” as one hit at 95 mph or more. Alonso’s 30.2% is the lowest of his career, marking the fourth straight year of decline. That’s in the bottom 14th percentile. Last season’s hard hitting rate was 40.1%.
Strikeout rate: At 20.6%, it’s very manageable and down from last year (22.9%). According to Fangraphs, Alonso is swinging and missing less (9.7%) but chasing more this year than last year (32.1%). Tracking rate corresponds to the 35th percentile.
Walking speed: Alonso’s walk rate is 9%, about 1% less than last year. As scouts told Sammon, this is an area Alonso needs to improve as he gets older.
There’s still plenty of season left for Alonso to get back on track, but there’s no doubt Mets decision-makers will be watching the slugger very closely as they decide on his future.
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