Operation Rafa won’t help Israel escape the loop of political ruin

Israel is moving ahead with plans for an operation in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, which borders Egypt, as ongoing attempts to restore the ceasefire and hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas show signs of success. On May 6, the Israeli military ordered the evacuation of more than 200,000 Gazans in the southwestern Gaza Strip.

More than a million Gazans have been evacuated from Rafah during the war, and most Gazans currently evacuated from Rafah are forced to flee for the second or third time in the past seven months of war. Shortly after, Israeli forces took control of the Rafah crossing. The Israeli government has stated that the operation in Rafah is necessary to achieve war goals, including the elimination of Hamas’s government and military capabilities and the release of hostages held by Hamas.

However, the current government of Benjamin Netanyahu, with or without Rafah, is unable to achieve such a goal. Even if the Israeli army succeeds in conquering Rafah, the real reason why the Israeli government cannot achieve its objectives: the loop of political fate surrounding the question of how to govern Gaza will not be resolved.

The various proposals for Hamas’ next-day governance of Gaza can be divided into two main categories. The first is advocated primarily by Israeli right-wingers. West Bankization of Gaza. This means that the Israeli military junta will take control of Gaza, dividing it into different regions and restricting the freedom of movement of Palestinians between the regions. Further down the line, some supporters of such proposals call for the re-establishment of Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip. The other category is a Palestinian-led government based to some extent on the Palestinian Authority, its allies, and a regional coalition that supports the reconstruction of Gaza. Many proponents of this strategy, particularly the Biden administration, believe it could become part of a broader normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

However, both categories are considered politically impossible for Netanyahu’s government. Prime Minister Netanyahu relies heavily on the settler right to maintain his rule. The ongoing corruption trial has made him a political pariah in Israeli politics, leaving only ultra-Orthodox parties and the settler right as viable political partners. The right wing strongly opposes any form of Palestinian self-government, especially one that suggests ties to the Palestinian Authority or a path to Palestinian statehood, leaving Netanyahu with no room to pursue such a solution. do not have. According to the messianic vision of politicians like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, any strategic gain from normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia justifies concessions to the Palestinians. I can’t.

Conversely, the United States, the international community, and some moderate government ministers are firmly opposed to the establishment of an official military regime in Gaza.In theory, international law states that countries temporary A military government was established as part of the transition period, and a conflict ensued to ensure stability for the local population. However, given the nature of the Israeli occupation since the 1967 war, it is far from temporary and involves many violations of international law and the expansionist settler vision of many Israeli politicians, and the military regime will become a red line that the international community must not cross. .

There is no majority in the Israeli government supporting either vision, but turmoil is spreading throughout the territory Israel has conquered so far in the Gaza Strip. For example, Israel has been in effective control of northern Gaza since early January. However, that part of the Gaza Strip is in the worst condition compared to other parts of the Strip. The United Nations World Food Program recently declared “full-scale famine” in northern Gaza. Israel has failed to establish alternative governance structures through smaller local groups, as promoted by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Instead, the international community needed to alleviate a humanitarian disaster, such as with the water port the Biden administration is building on the Gaza coast.

In other words, even if the Rafah invasion were successful, Israel would still be no closer to “complete victory.” Despite some reports suggesting that Hamas has expanded into other parts of the Gaza Strip in anticipation of Israeli military operations, in order to gain small tactical gains such as dismantling remaining Hamas battalions. Some people justify the invasion of Rafah. But in the larger scheme of things, dismantling all Hamas battalions would not force the Israeli government to make a more positive decision about its Gaza plans. It only fuels the eternal loop of forcibly relocating Palestinians from one region to another in order to enable further military operations against local Hamas and other terrorist organizations. In other words, more destruction and chaos.

One notable beneficiary of this destructive loop is Prime Minister Netanyahu. For him, continuing the war allowed him to extend his term as prime minister. Moreover, he slowly managed to increase his political power after experiencing a major setback in the polls after the October 7 attacks. He still follows Benny Gantz, but Gantz’s ability to form a government is likely to become increasingly complicated. Several successive polls will force Gantz’s potential coalition to rely on votes from the Arab-Palestinian party Ra’am. Mr. Ra’am’s leader, Mansour Abbas, is a very moderate and pragmatic politician who has a strong commitment to the important issues facing the Arab-Palestinian people, such as organized crime, lack of adequate infrastructure, and discrimination in the allocation of resources. He famously agreed to put aside his aspirations for Palestinian statehood in order to deal with it. However, Mr. Raam’s participation in the transformative government that temporarily ousted Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2021-2022 exposed the coalition to ferocious attacks from Netanyahu and the Israeli right-wing, leading to its collapse. A similar right-wing campaign would be even more effective, especially in wartime, when coalition forces would face fundamental questions about Israeli policy toward the Palestinians and would need to continue some military operations in Gaza. Yes, there is a possibility that Prime Minister Netanyahu will be strengthened. Moreover, the reality in Gaza will make it even more difficult to justify cooperation with Mr. Raam’s Zionist regime to Arab Palestinians in Israel.

Until elections are held and Israeli leadership is replaced, the expansion of Israeli military operations into Rafah will not have any different consequences than previous Israeli attacks. Netanyahu’s government lacks the political capacity to reach a political solution. The foreseeable outcome of the operation in Rafah will therefore be to exacerbate Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, spread chaos and anarchy, and support Prime Minister Netanyahu’s campaign for political restoration.

Eyal Lurie Pardes is a visiting scholar in the Middle East Institute’s Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Issues after being awarded the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School LLM Graduate Fellowship. Prior to joining MEI, Eyal worked at the Israel Civil Rights Association, the Zlat Institute for Equality and Human Rights, and as a parliamentary advisor to the National Assembly. X Follow him at @eyalurie