China’s Xi Jinping emphasizes Europe’s divisions ahead of expected Putin visit

Hong Kong
CNN
—

Xi Jinping may have begun his recent European tour in France answering tough questions about trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine, but the Chinese leader ended his stay late last week with friction with much of the continent. Regardless, China still ended its stay expressing a close message with China. We have fans in several European capitals.

In Belgrade and Budapest, the Chinese government exerted its unifying influence, with streets decorated with Chinese flags. When President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan landed at the airports in both cities, folk dancers performed on the tarmac, and in contrast to the subdued reception the couple received in Paris, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Hungarian President Prime Minister Viktor Orbán welcomed them. they.

Chinese state media touted China’s “iron-clad” ties with Serbia and its “golden friendship” with Hungary in headlines, touting its benign diplomacy. The two countries, both major recipients of Chinese investment, announced improved ties with China during the visit, a symbolic victory for Xi Jinping, and analysts say they will continue to improve relations with China over trade, security and human rights challenges. We believe that it may play a role in softening Europe’s China policy in certain areas.

But in other parts of Europe, analysts say the red carpet welcome from Mr Vučić and Mr Orbán – both widely seen as illiberal and pro-Russia – may not go down so well. A very warm embrace that underlines the decreasing number of European capitals that Mr. Xi meets with.

Relations between China and Europe have been soured by the European Union’s growing list of economic grievances against China, which could escalate into a full-blown trade war. Also mixed in are suspicions across Europe about Beijing’s global ambitions and influence, particularly its support for Russia. This includes allegations that the Chinese government is supplying dual-use components to support the war against Ukraine.

Xi, on his first visit to Europe in five years, was pressed about these issues by French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen early last week. Both men are sure to closely monitor the expected upcoming summit between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in China.

Xi stressed in Paris that China has no role other than “contributing to achieving peace” in Ukraine and denied that “excess production capacity” in Chinese industry was flooding the European market.

Those tensions disappeared when Mr. Xi met with Mr. Vučić and Mr. Orbán.

His visit to Serbia and Hungary “sends a very good message to the Chinese (domestic) audience that ‘we have close friends in Europe…Hungary and Serbia are real friends with whom we can do business,'” the senior said. said Philippe Le Collet. He is a researcher at the Center for China Analysis at the Asian Social Policy Research Institute and spoke at an event hosted by the center as Mr. Xi’s tour began last week.

However, Le Collet said that Orbán and Vučić had attended the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing last October with Putin, so it was a no-brainer for Paris that the countries were on his itinerary. He added that he was “embarrassed.”

Xi’s visits to Serbia and Hungary helped him move toward another goal: chipping away at a world order that he sees as dominated by the United States.

With the signing of the joint statement, Serbia’s Vucic became the first European leader to commit to joining China in building a “community of shared future.” Loosely formulated, the concept calls for cooperation based on common interests and suggests that countries should not interact on the basis of alliances or be judged on the basis of domestic politics or human rights records. are doing.

“This is the highest level of cooperation between our two countries, and I am proud to have had the opportunity as President of Serbia to sign that declaration with President Xi Jinping,” Vučić said on Wednesday. I talked about this. Other promises from President Xi include expanding agricultural imports and direct flights.

Mr. Xi also touted a common worldview in a meeting with Mr. Orban in Hungary, which is a member of both the EU and NATO. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose increasingly authoritarian rule has raised alarm in the EU, has ignored the growing ties between the two countries and upgraded his country’s relationship to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership.”

Not only is this another symbolic victory for Mr. Xi, it could also prompt a backlash from Mr. Orbán against efforts within the EU to “de-risk” supply chains and impose tariffs on Chinese goods. Yes, analysts say. President Xi seemed to hint at this when he met Orbán in Budapest on Thursday, saying that he hopes Hungary will use its rotating EU presidency starting in July to “promote the stable and healthy development of China-EU relations.” “We hope to promote this,” he said.

The two leaders have also signed some 18 cooperation agreements, which Orbán said include areas such as railways, IT and nuclear power. Xi declared that the two countries would “deepen economic, trade, investment and financial cooperation” and advance “major projects” including the Budapest-Belgrade railway.

Serbia and Hungary are already major destinations for Chinese investment, and Hungary is becoming an increasingly important European production base for Chinese car suppliers, including electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers. In France earlier this week, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told reporters that he “welcomes” Chinese company BYD to open a factory in France. But the EV giant already appears to have chosen its first foothold in European car production, pledging to open a factory in Hungary late last year.

Beijing may also want other countries on the continent to take note, and analysts say all of this could lead to Europe’s rise in contrast to other countries emulating U.S. efforts to contain China. It has been linked to Xi’s efforts to frame the region as benefiting from a clear-headed view of China.

“Proximity to these countries fits into China’s domestic narrative that there are ‘smart countries’ in Europe that truly understand China and do not support the United States, and that China has We are cooperating with countries,” Liu Dongshu said. Assistant Professor of Public and International Affairs at City University of Hong Kong.

However, some point out that Mr. Xi’s itinerary also highlights his limitations within Europe. This includes Central and Eastern Europe, where the Chinese government has made extensive efforts to deepen ties and win goodwill, including through Xi’s flagship One Belt, One Road infrastructure initiative.

China’s mechanism to strengthen ties with 16 Central and Eastern European countries has failed to materialize on the scale of investment expected, and China’s recent support for Russia in areas with a history of Soviet domination has soured relations. As a result, it is gradually losing support. .

“The unrestricted partnership and Beijing’s moral and material support for Moscow has infuriated the leaders and peoples of many (Central and Eastern European) countries,” said Tamás Matula, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. Stated. “This clearly weakens China’s position in Europe.”

Meanwhile, long-standing tensions with the Nordic countries, Italy’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road initiative earlier this year, and recent visits to China by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have all made these countries less likely to It wasn’t ideal for his visit. Mathura added. He said Beijing likely sees France as creating the possibility of diplomatic opening, given its insistence on Europe’s strategic autonomy from the United States.

However, despite Macron and von der Leyen’s emphasis on the importance of dialogue, and despite Xi’s two-day visit with the French president, which included a more personal visit, the trip did not involve Western European countries or There were few concrete signs that friction with the EU would ease. Dispatch to the Pyrenees and conclusion of 18 cooperation agreements.

And despite having limited economic influence, with a population of 16 million and a combined GDP of about one-tenth that of France, according to IMF statistics, Serbia and EU member states Hungary could become increasingly valuable to China as tensions with the EU continue and threats persist. A trade war is on the horizon.

Associate Professor Gabor Scheiling, a former member of the Hungarian parliament, said: “Both Orbán and Vučić are illiberal leaders who have positioned their countries between competing geopolitical blocs and are overly dependent on one or the other. We want to avoid that,” he said. He studied comparative politics at Georgetown University in Qatar. “They don’t care about democracy or human rights. For them, foreign policy is strictly about practical economic interests.”

And that could be a boon for China.

“Hungary and Serbia are strategic gateways to Europe for Beijing…The value of both countries as gateways to Europe will increase as the trade war intensifies,” he said.