The fourth phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections saw a turnout of 67.3%, lower than the 69.6% in the 2019 general elections, continuing the downward trend seen in the first three phases. Markets are pricing in stronger mandates for the BJP-led NPA alliance this time around, and recent voter turnout figures have spooked equity investors to some extent.
But Bernstein added that based on past elections, there is no clear correlation between turnout and election results, and people shouldn’t read too much into turnout numbers, at least for now.
Mr. Bernstein said it would take more than just a drop in vote share for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s tally to erode significantly for India Inc to start factoring in the case for discontinuity. Bernstein said the anti-incumbent movement, combined with a 2-3 percentage point decline in voters, would likely bring the numbers slightly lower than 2014’s tally.
“Significant declines (more than 5 percentage points) with no major anti-incumbency will likely result in a repeat of 2019 numbers, albeit with small upward or downward revisions; large declines in vote share (more than 5 percentage points) ) and significant anti-incumbency matters.” If elections are to be market-defining events, the fact that opposition parties are united nationally this time should only begin to have a meaningful impact at this stage. ” he said.
Additionally, Bernstein said the turnout data released the same day did not include votes, so any comparisons to 2019 would be apples-to-oranges. Once the ECI released the final data for the first two phases, including voting (11 Phase 1 was delayed by several days and caused a fuss, the turnout increased by 5.5%, closing a considerable gap).
The impact on ballots this time is reportedly greater than in past years, so the impact is likely to be smaller than a direct comparison would suggest, the report said.
Netnet’s Bernstein said that unless we witness both a sharp decline in turnout and a significant contribution from anti-incumbent forces, the overall election outcome is not expected to be significantly affected, and incumbent parties are expected to weather. He said there was some possibility. Repeat or slightly exceed 2019.
The seven-phase election began on April 19 and is scheduled to end on June 1. Election results are expected on June 4th.
Bernstein said there can be many theories designed to fit many narratives, and that the theory that Bharatiya Janata Party voters are overconfident and opposition voters are demoralized is now enough. He said that it is widespread.
Bernstein divided voters into three categories. The first are experienced NDA supporters, the second are experienced NDA non-supporters, and the third are swing voters, those who vote right away and decide who to vote for at the last moment. These are the people who have the potential to make decisions. for.
Bernstein said swing voters were instrumental in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decisive victories in 2014 and 2019. Bernstein assumes that the core voter base for both the Indian People’s Congress and the Indian National Congress (INC) is around 18 to 20 percent, as this is the minimum vote share in both countries. Each political party even went through the worst with INC in 2019 and BJP in 2009.
Bernstein said the election outcome was largely determined by floating voters who overwhelmingly voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014 and 2019. He said it is these floating voters whose abstentions will cause the vote share to go up or down as they are likely to form the core of the vote bank. To come on voting day.
“For example, a lack of connection to issues on the ground or a lack of connection to the opposition can disincentivize these floating votes from voting. This also has interesting consequences. “It just means there weren’t enough floating votes to support INC in 2019 (only 0.5%). So assuming the core voters are about to increase, the loss from floating voters will likely be to the NDA,” Bernstein said. said.
Bernstein said the second thing to remember is that the Bharatiya Janata Party may lose vote share due to voter abstention and anti-incumbency factors, and of that, INC will only gain from anti-incumbency losses. (An abstention vote does not bring any direct benefit).
This required two cases. One is where there is a decline in voting but not very large in anti-incumbent support, and the other is where there is a significant decline.
“We assume a slight decline in overall turnout of 2.5% and a generous INC.
While the anti-incumbency bloc won 75 per cent of the votes, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s vote share was 32.7 per cent and the INC’s vote share was 22.2 per cent. The difference in vote share was only slightly closer to the difference in 2014, but it was still a comfortable victory. Therefore, even for anti-incumbent voters, a small drop in the vote share will not lead to electoral surprises. “Given that we are seeing alliances with the Indian Union, there will be an increase in opposition seats, but it is unlikely that the Bharatiya Janata Party will lose many seats,” Bernstein said.
In the second case, assuming the total number of votes drops significantly by more than 5 percent, that’s when things start to get interesting, Bernstein said.
Assuming the same 75% goes to INC, the BJP’s vote share will drop to 27.8% and INC will start fighting with 25.1%. The difference in vote share decreased to just 2.6%.
“This is a case where we are looking at a scenario where the ruling government starts losing significant seats and as a result the Parliament stalls, given the fact that this time the Bharatiya Janata Party is facing a composite opposition party. , a more extreme case is possible where the Bharatiya Janata Party’s seats could decline rapidly, at the cost of even greater risks to its rival, the Indian Alliance.
On the other hand, in the case of voters who are depressed but not changed, as Bernstein put it, “this time we have depressed and unstable voters who may not have sufficient motivation to vote for the NDA. Even so, they will not vote for INC in the next election.” Therefore, if we set the anti-incumbency coefficient to only 20 percent of total abstentions, case C is possible. Here, even a large drop in turnout will not be enough to move turnout significantly. ”
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