This analysis takes BLS inflation data and recalculates the percentage change at the category level to obtain unrounded numbers. The total count is relevant to BLS, but provides details at a granular level.
April consumer price index
Below is inflation data obtained from BLS. After bottoming out at 0.08% in October last year, the monthly figure is now 0.31%, lower than the past three months, while on an annual basis he is running at 3.7%. Although the monthly numbers were lower than expected, it is clear that inflation has reached new levels.
Figure 1: Month-on-month inflation rate
The year-on-year CPI had been hovering around the low 3% range since June last year, but has picked up in the past two months. This is not unexpected, as the 0.09% month-on-month increase since March last year has slowed. The annual figure is likely to rise next month as well, with May 2023 falling by 0.11%.
Figure 2: Year-on-year inflation rate
Looking at the individual categories compared to the past, it is clear that energy has had a big impact, with shelter remaining up at 0.38% (4.7% per year).
Figure 3: Monthly change and TTM
The table below provides a more detailed breakdown of the numbers. The actual numbers reported by the BLS are shown side by side with the recalculated, unrounded numbers. The weight column shows how each value affects the aggregated number. Please see the BLS website for details.
Figure 4: Inflation details
Looking at the Fed numbers
The Fed uses a different category methodology than the BLS, but the total numbers are similar. Below are the numbers reported by the Fed. According to the Fed category, 6 out of 8 categories outperform 12-month trends. Apparel has been up significantly over the past month. Only food and shelter are below his 12-month trend.
Figure 5: Current and historical
historical perspective
Below is a longer view of inflation and interest rates from the Fed and BLS (at an aggregate level, the data are the same).
Figure 6: FRB CPI
BLS category data is shown below. Again, this doesn’t seem like a wave that’s going to drop to 3% anytime soon. Looks like a decline before further gains.
Figure 7: Historical CPI
Data source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
Data updates: monthly updates within the first 10 business days
Last updated: April 2024
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