Why the BJP-led NDA is likely to have an advantage in the 2024 elections

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have entered the halfway stage after completing four phases, with only three phases remaining. Low voter turnout was a central topic of discussion in this election, but this trend reversed in the fourth stage, with turnout slightly increasing compared to 2019.

Against this backdrop, opposition leaders began to claim that the number of members of the Bharatiya Janata Party was decreasing. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said his Bharatiya Janata Party would win 180 seats, but a few days later revised that figure to 150. TMC supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has given more seats to the Bharatiya Janata Party compared to Rahul, who seems very tough on the numbers for the Bharatiya Janata Party. BJP — 195 people at most. However, when it comes to allocating numbers to the Bharatiya Janata Party, AAP supremo and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal appears to be more liberal than Gandhi and Banerjee. He predicted that the saffron party could win 220 seats.

At an election rally in Krishnagar, West Bengal, this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, as opposition leaders do their best to publicize how difficult it is for the Bharatiya Janata Party to even cross the 200 mark. , the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA claimed that it was the people’s decision. We are looking forward to not only securing 370 seats, but exceeding 400 seats. Such claims are routinely made by politicians during elections to energize front-line workers and attract swing voters.

However, what drew attention was the assertion by some journalists and political analysts that the BJP is unlikely to win a majority on its own and that even the NDA may struggle to win a majority on its own. It is said that there is a sex. Yogendra Yadav, an antiquarian turned political leader and activist, gave a rough figure of around 233 seats to the BJP and 268 seats to the NDA based on his own ‘evidence assessment’.

Looking back at the 2019 election

Before analyzing this election, let us first look back at the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which are often cited by many journalists and political commentators today. According to this section, this year’s elections, unlike the 2019 elections, do not have a dominant narrative, with the wave of nationalism generated by the Pulwama terror attack and subsequent Balakot terror leading to the BJP-led NDA It is said that he took on a great mission and won. Airstrike. Interestingly, some on the campaign trail claimed that 2019 was an “uneventful election”. Nevertheless, following the results, they concluded that Mr. Modi came to power for the second time solely because of the opportunity presented by the Pulwama terror attack.

This argument is flawed, and we need to reexamine the 2019 election. According to the Lokniti-CSDS post-opinion poll, the Pulwama terror attack and Balakot airstrike were important issues to just 0.4 per cent of voters during voting. The survey indicated that development was an important issue for 14.3% of voters. This was followed by the unemployment rate, which was important to his 11.3 percent of voters. Other issues include economic growth, corruption, rising prices, and water-related issues. Although these numbers have been publicly available for the past five years, it is surprising that they are still being misinterpreted by prominent journalists and political commentators in this country. The 2019 elections were decided mainly on the basis of Pulwama and Balakot.

Despite complaints, Modi’s popularity remains high

In the run-up to the 2024 elections, Lokniti-CSDS released a pre-opinion poll in April, and the data pointed out that satisfaction with the Modi government had fallen by about 8.1 percentage points, which is lower than the Bharatiya Janata Party’s This is an expression of serious concern. Increasing unemployment (12.2%), rising prices (7.6%) and falling incomes (4.1%) are some of the key issues that matter to voters in the survey. The preliminary poll also points out that support for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as the next prime minister has increased by about 5 percentage points (26.5 percent) compared to the 2019 preliminary poll. Interestingly, support for Narendra Modi as the next prime minister has also increased by 2 percentage points to 47.5 percent. This came despite a decade of anti-incumbency protests.

Why Narendra Modi’s popularity remains undiminished

Many journalists and political commentators are seen arguing that Ram Mandir in Ayodhya is not a poll issue. First of all, this is not a specific election issue. Ram His Mandir is a sentiment against Hindus. However, it remains an issue in this election. Preliminary polls show that for his 7.5 per cent of voters, Ram Mandir is an important issue when voting, and a further 2.3 per cent of his voters individually list Hindutva as an important issue when voting. Masu. Clearly, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Hindutva policies remain an important factor for his 9.8 per cent of voters this election, although a minority of them may be anti-Hindutva voters.

For voters (27.3%), unemployment remains the most important issue when voting. However, it would be a mistake to conclude that all voters who list unemployment as an important issue are necessarily anti-Indiana Bharatiya Janata Party voters. If they vote for the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party, liberals and leftists will label them “blind” to basic issues like unemployment and price rise. Interestingly, 9.1% of voters cited employment as their favorite item, according to a preliminary poll. Modi government’s efforts – second most liked factor after Ram Mandir This is because although unemployment is a serious problem, there are sections that believe that the Modi government is working to address it. means.

Price increases after job loss were cited as an important factor by 23.4% of voters. However, it is worth noting that even though price rise was a key issue in the 2009 elections, his Congress-led UPA gained more seats and came to power. This does not deny voters’ disillusionment with the Modi government over rising prices. However, the welfare system and infrastructure projects cited by 18.1% of voters as the biggest change since Modi took office are likely to support the government, reducing the impact of this disillusionment and potentially increasing votes for the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is possible to prevent this from happening. -led NDA.

PM Modi recognizes reality

Liberals and leftists are not happy with Narendra Modi’s election speech targeting the Congress-led opposition party seeking Islamic appeasement. They claim this is not a serious problem. Although the parliamentary manifesto does not mention wealth redistribution, preliminary CSDS-Lokniti polling suggests that concerns about policies targeting the Muslim community resonate with some voters. There is. According to the survey, 47.3% of voters agreed that Muslims are being unnecessarily coddled, 32.2% disagreed, and 20.4% chose not to respond. Prime Minister Modi’s speech on Islamic appeasement is aimed at opposition parties, especially the Congress, and aims to address the concerns of these voters, who represent nearly 50% of those surveyed, as well as appeal to undecided voters.

Is the NDA ahead of the opposition?

In the all-important state of Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA outnumbers the opposition split between the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and the BSP. Mayawati’s party may be weak, but it is still a force that has the potential to polarize the anti-BJP vote. Not only that, the SP’s experiment in forging social alliances with smaller caste-based parties had some success in the 2022 state assembly polls, but four of the five OBC-based parties ( The party suffered a setback with the defection of the Suheldeb Bharatiya Samaj led by Om Prakash Rajbhar. party, Rashtriya Lok Dal led by Jayant Singh, Apna Dal (Camerwadi Party) and Jan Janwadi Party. Two of them (SBSP and RLD) joined his NDA. Last time, the NDA won 64 out of 80 seats and is expected to win here this time.

In Bihar, the NDA won almost a landslide victory by winning 39 out of 40 seats, although the Janata Dal (United) is certainly still a weak link for the NDA due to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s declining popularity. Voters also recognize that this election is important. It’s not about Nitish, it’s about Modi.

While there is a possibility of losing seats here and there such as Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Haryana and West Bengal, the BJP and NDA will lose seats in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. It is also likely to win some seats in the state, Northeast and Telangana. Also in Tamilnadu. That may reduce the BJP’s tally, but it is unlikely to fall below the 272 mark, while the NDA is likely to cross the 300 mark. This time, Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party is likely to add a significant number of seats to the NDA’s tally.

Arithmetically speaking, the BJP IN 2019 won 224 seats with over 50 per cent vote share. Swings will happen, but for that to happen the opposition has to be strong on the field. As for the Congress, it is competing mainly with the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Hindi-speaking states except Uttar Pradesh, but it lacks a strong operational organization.Just create Mahor It is unlikely that the environment through social media will help win votes during an election period. The BJP-led NDA already lacks an opposition party behind it, and the NDA has been on the ground long before the election season begins. Mr. Kejriwal’s recent statement that the BJP could win 220 seats is likely to make it the single largest party in these seats as well, but even the opposition parties are disappointed that the saffron party lost the election. It gives the impression that there is not much confidence in the claim. This gives the impression that the Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win, and this perception is likely to play a role in adding floating votes to its side.

As the election season progresses, the opposition has been able to soften this perception to some extent, but can this be translated into a vote against the BJP, and if so, to what extent? Will it meet the required criteria to defeat the mighty BJP? This remains an important question. Although the wave of anti-Modi support is definitely stronger than during the 2019 election, there is also a quiet pro-Modi wave without losing much of its 2019 momentum locally.

Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. The views expressed in the article above are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of her News18.