Many observers and analysts of the Afghan situation consider Pakistan-Taliban relations puzzling. It is widely known, both inside and outside Afghanistan, that Pakistan created and nurtured the Taliban for its strategic objectives in the region and brought them to power with its unconditional support. Moreover, the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan was seen as a major regional achievement for Pakistan and a setback for Indian influence. However, verbal tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, coupled with occasional expressions of anger, raise important questions. Moreover, the complex relationship between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban, known as the TTP, and the challenge posed by the latter group to the Pakistani military raise further questions. The Pakistani Taliban maintain an irreconcilable hostility towards the Pakistani government, and their interactions with the country’s military, whether during ceasefire or conflict, have never led to a definitive resolution.
The complex relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban has perplexed Afghan politics and has had perplexing consequences for many individuals and groups. Some political activists in Afghanistan see Pakistan as the main cause of the country’s wars and insecurity over the past half century and are upset by some Taliban leaders’ critical stance toward Pakistan. . Although they oppose the Taliban, they support the group’s opposition to the Pakistani government and claim to support the Taliban in this regard. Some politicians opposed to the Taliban see Pakistan as the Taliban’s most important backer, and interpret tensions between the two countries as a positive sign, reflecting the sharpness of some Pakistani leaders against the Taliban. He praises his provocative statements. They perceive this as an indication of a change in Pakistani policy and speculate that the loss of their most important supporters has put the Taliban on a decline and that its decline is imminent.
The confusion doesn’t end there. Some Afghan politicians believe that distancing the Taliban from Pakistan could pave the way for other countries to influence the group, allowing Iran, Qatar, Turkey and even Russia to change direction of the Taliban. I believe it is possible. The Taliban may seek reconciliation with other groups to prevent the regime’s collapse. Conversely, those who express concern that Pakistan’s tensions with the Taliban could prompt Pakistan to support other extremist groups, including ISIS, and lead Afghanistan into renewed chaos of widespread conflict and insecurity. There are some too. On another front, some Afghan political and social activists fear that tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban could further weaken Pakistan and even lead to its collapse, in retaliation for long-standing hostility towards Afghanistan. Some people hope that there will be.
Although each of these analyzes may contain aspects of multidimensional truth, they cannot paint a comprehensive picture that leads to a complete understanding of the problem. To reduce confusion about this issue, we need to distinguish between tactics and strategy. For example, Pakistan has had no better ally than the Afghan militants for half a century. These groups, which have influence on both sides of the Durand Line, are ideal guardians of Pakistan, contribute directly to national security, and are vital to Pakistan’s interests. Neither Pashtun nationalists in Pakistan or Afghanistan nor other political groups in northern, central and southwestern Afghanistan can play such a role. Pakistan will never lose such a force and cannot replace it with the Taliban or any other force. Still, while the Taliban can engage tactically with other countries, no country is as strategic a haven for them as Pakistan, and no country can come to their aid in times of trouble. Therefore, the Taliban will not replace Pakistan with any other country.
If so, you may ask why some Taliban leaders are dissatisfied with Pakistan. Why are the enemies of this government, the Pakistani Taliban, receiving support from the Afghan Taliban? Why do some Pakistani leaders praise groups that oppose the Afghan Taliban? These questions arise when common complexities in the world of politics are not taken into account. For example, some Taliban leaders may not be happy with Pakistan, but personal feelings and the organization’s strategic interests are different, and the latter prevails in politics. Furthermore, Taliban leaders are aware that over-reliance on Pakistan impedes the state’s legitimacy, and argue that controlled and limited tensions with Pakistan are necessary to demonstrate independence. There is. This is understandable for Pakistan.
However, the positive sentiments expressed by some Pakistani politicians towards other political groups in Afghanistan carry no significant weight within Pakistan’s deep state and are not indicative of strategic decision-making. It’s important to distinguish between momentary, emotional statements and long-term strategic planning. These statements could serve as a means of putting pressure on the Afghan Taliban to limit their support to the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan’s friendship with other political groups in Afghanistan is more of a tactical ploy to control the Afghan Taliban than a shift in the country’s strategic position. Pakistan’s friendly relations with the Afghan Taliban are understandable and accepted within the country, but the key factor is the extent to which these relations extend and should not exceed certain limits. The Afghan Taliban strive to ensure that their relationship with Pakistan remains within bounds that respect Pakistan’s core interests.
But in the long run, supporting extremist groups like the Taliban, whether in Pakistan or any other government, harms the people of the region. It undermines the stability and sustainable development of these countries. It is like a ticking time bomb, where any regional or global dynamic change can cause a significant and devastating explosion. Sound policy prioritizes the interests of the people over the interests of individuals and political groups, and avoids sacrificing countries in the region for narrow individual or group objectives, a pattern that has been observed to date. It is. Just as it is difficult to accurately predict global events, the future of the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan is also uncertain, and unless there is a strategic shift in Pakistan’s policy, the relationship will remain unstable. Dew.
The Persian version of this editorial note can be read here.
Thank you very much
