President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Beijing was a great success, according to Russian and Chinese media.
That’s what they always say.
But what is the reality? Are Chinese and Russians really in an “unrestricted partnership” or a shotgun marriage that lasts until either one is free to stab the other in the back?
A friend asked me for my take, so here it is.
This is not good. The strategic interests of President Putin and President Xi Jinping are aligned, and there is a whiff of weakness and confusion on both sides. They will continue to apply pressure, including by using proxies such as Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba. And they will stoke more fires as they go, including encouraging separatists from New Caledonia to Yap to Guam.
The Russian and Chinese militaries have been conducting joint training and exercises since the early 2000s, and they have become more serious since the 2010s. They conducted joint air and sea operations in and around Japan, as well as in the South Atlantic, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean Sea, South China Sea, Indian Ocean, and even near Alaska. Ground exercises are also being conducted in Siberia.
Some suspect that the two leaders are seizing an opportunity unimaginable four years ago and are aiming to gain an advantage over their enemies, especially the United States and its allies.
Yes, but…
Don’t Russians have a deep-seated hatred towards Chinese people? Yes, they do it. But it doesn’t matter. Not now, anyway.
Doesn’t China want to regain the territory it lost through conquest and unfair treaties against Russia over the past centuries? Yes, they do – and they think they’ll get it back when the time comes.
It doesn’t matter for now. They will get it “when the time is right” – as they said in 1974 when Portugal offered to return Macau but Beijing wanted to resolve the Hong Kong issue first. .
Is President Putin not afraid of being swayed by China, which he considers to be at a disadvantage? Or maybe he woke up and realized that on his side of the eastern border he had five Shenzhens. There are very few Russians there, but on the other side there are tens of millions of Chinese. probably. Will it affect his decision? no.
For now, he and Xi Jinping are seizing the opportunity to reset the world and intend to keep up the pressure in as many places as possible.
In March 2023, as he bid farewell to President Putin at the Kremlin, President Xi said, “Changes like we have not seen in 100 years are occurring today, and we are driving these changes together.” ” he said.
President Putin reportedly replied, “I agree.”
Given the nature of the two regimes, this should surprise no one.
Yes, there may be limits to military cooperation between the two countries, but they serve to put the United States and its friends (and potential friends) at a disadvantage, and are ultimately mutually reinforcing. It is something to do. Meanwhile, much of the so-called Global South (developing world) sees the Russians and Chinese as having the upper hand.
Look at what happened recently in Niger. The Americans were told to get lost and the Russians were told, “Welcome aboard.”
And what really matters is the geopolitical backstop. As if that were possible, consider how the United Nations was completely crippled.
North Korea sanctions? Died.
Resistance to sanctions
Ultimately, both countries will be shielding themselves from sanctions, further weakening the deterrence power of the United States and the free world, much less their ability to deter China and Russia one-on-one or both.
Consider the economic benefits for Moscow and Beijing. Russia gets cheap energy and food from Russia, while Russia gets essential military components from Russia. And China’s proxies, Iran and North Korea, provide Russia with all the drones, missiles, ammunition, and artillery shells it needs.
And there is a possibility that Russia and China will break free from the US dollar’s stranglehold. This is perhaps the biggest hammer the United States still has in its toolset.
the adults in the room
President Putin is as smart as he is ruthless. Perhaps he was only an intermediate KGB agent, but for 25 years he played with world leaders and won.
Remember George Bush – “I could feel his soul.” Barack Obama’s message on the contentious missile defense issue, conveyed through Putin’s Vice President Dmitri Medvedev Remember: “This is my last election… After the election, I can be more flexible.” France’s Emmanuel Macron and Japan’s Shinzo Abe also responded to President Putin. It was no different.
Xi Jinping hasn’t been around as long as Putin, but he’s been just as successful.
Who on Team Biden scares the Chinese and Russians? No one.
Biden’s foreign policy team loudly exclaimed that once 2021 arrives, “the adults” will be in charge.
They even revealed US intelligence to China in 2022 while Putin was building up troops on the Ukrainian border. The theory was that Beijing would use its influence to deter Putin from invading. In return, the Chinese side passed on the information and gave President Putin the go-ahead.
Since then, the “adults” have done nothing to slow down the Russians or Chinese or Iranians or North Koreans or anyone else.
It may be no wonder that President Putin and President Xi Jinping are wondering, “If not now, then when?”
But come on, Newsham, are things really that bad?
I admit there may be a silver lining to all of this. But if there is, it appears to be well hidden.
Some may hope that the “adults” don’t work their magic for another four years. Putin and Xi probably won’t care.
President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Beijing was a great success, according to Russian and Chinese media.
That’s what they always say.
But what is the reality? Are Chinese and Russians really in an “unrestricted partnership” or a shotgun marriage that lasts until either one is free to stab the other in the back?
A friend asked me for my take, so here it is.
This is not good. Putin and Xi Jinping’s strategic interests are aligned, and there is a whiff of weakness and confusion on both sides. They will continue to apply pressure, including by using proxies such as Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba. And they will stoke more fires as they go, including encouraging separatists from New Caledonia to Yap to Guam.
The Russian and Chinese militaries have been conducting joint training and exercises since the early 2000s, and they have become more serious since the 2010s. They conducted joint air and sea operations in and around the waters near Japan, as well as in the South Atlantic, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean Sea, South China Sea, Indian Ocean, and even near Alaska. Ground exercises are also being conducted in Siberia.
Some suspect that the two leaders are seizing an opportunity unimaginable four years ago and are aiming to gain an advantage over their enemies, especially the United States and its allies.
Yes, but…
Don’t Russians have a deep-seated hatred towards Chinese people? Yes, they do it. But it doesn’t matter. Not now, anyway.
Doesn’t China want to regain the territory it lost through conquest and unfair treaties against Russia over the past centuries? Yes, they do – and they think they’ll get it back when the time comes.
It doesn’t matter for now. They will get it “when the time is right” – as they said in 1974 when Portugal offered to return Macau but Beijing wanted to resolve the Hong Kong issue first. .
Is President Putin not afraid of being swayed by China, which he considers to be at a disadvantage? Or maybe he woke up and realized that on his side of the eastern border he had five Shenzhens. There are very few Russians there, but on the other side there are tens of millions of Chinese. probably. Will it affect his decision? no.
For now, he and Xi Jinping are seizing the opportunity to reset the world and intend to keep up the pressure in as many places as possible.
In March 2023, as he bid farewell to President Putin at the Kremlin, President Xi said, “Changes like we have not seen in 100 years are occurring today, and we are driving these changes together.” ” he said.
President Putin reportedly replied, “I agree.”
Given the nature of the two regimes, this should surprise no one.
Yes, there may be limits to military cooperation between the two countries, but they serve to put the United States and its friends (and potential friends) at a disadvantage, and are ultimately mutually reinforcing. It is something to do. Meanwhile, much of the so-called Global South (developing world) sees the Russians and Chinese as having the upper hand.
Look at what happened recently in Niger. The Americans were told to get lost and the Russians were told, “Welcome aboard.”
And what really matters is the geopolitical backstop. As if that were possible, consider how the United Nations was completely crippled.
North Korea sanctions? Died.
Resistance to sanctions
Ultimately, both countries will be shielding themselves from sanctions, further weakening the deterrence power of the United States and the free world, much less their ability to deter China and Russia one-on-one or both.
Consider the economic benefits for Moscow and Beijing. Russia gets cheap energy and food from Russia, while Russia gets essential military components from Russia. And China’s proxies, Iran and North Korea, provide Russia with all the drones, missiles, ammunition, and artillery shells it needs.
And there is a possibility that Russia and China will break free from the US dollar’s stranglehold. This is perhaps the biggest hammer the United States still has in its toolset.
the adults in the room
President Putin is as smart as he is ruthless. Perhaps he was only an intermediate KGB agent, but for 25 years he played with world leaders and won.
Remember George Bush – “I could feel his soul.” Barack Obama’s message on the contentious missile defense issue, conveyed through Putin’s Vice President Dmitri Medvedev Remember: “This is my last election… After the election, I can be more flexible.” France’s Emmanuel Macron and Japan’s Shinzo Abe also responded to President Putin. It was no different.
Xi Jinping hasn’t been around as long as Putin, but he’s been just as successful.
Who on Team Biden will scare the Chinese and Russians? No one.
Biden’s foreign policy team loudly exclaimed that once 2021 arrives, “the adults” will be in charge.
They even revealed US intelligence to China in 2022 while Putin was building up troops on the Ukrainian border. The theory was that Beijing would use its influence to deter Putin from invading. In return, the Chinese side passed on the information and gave President Putin the go-ahead.
Since then, the “adults” have done nothing to slow down the Russians or Chinese or Iranians or North Koreans or anyone else.
It may be no wonder that President Putin and President Xi Jinping are wondering, “If not now, then when?”
But come on, Newsham, are things really that bad?
I admit there may be a silver lining to all of this. But if there is, it appears to be well hidden.
Some may hope that the “adults” don’t work their magic for another four years. Putin and Xi probably won’t care.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine Corps officer and former US diplomat.he is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning to America.
