Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-toku was sworn into office on Monday, despite wars breaking out abroad and rifts in the United States over U.S. security priorities; In these turbulent times, the island nation faces difficult choices about how to protect its democratic future. How can we maintain the fragile peace with China?
Lai began his four-year term as Taiwan’s president in a morning ceremony, before delivering an inaugural address outside the Presidential Building in Taiwan’s capital Taipei, outlining his priorities to an audience.
He said he would continue to strengthen ties with the United States and other Western countries while countering the Chinese threat and strengthening Taiwan’s defense. But if Chinese leader Xi Jinping sets aside the key precondition of accepting Taiwan as part of China, he could tentatively extend an olive branch to Beijing and open new talks. There is a possibility that it will be welcomed.
“The emphasis will be on national security, cross-Strait issues and foreign policy continuity,” said Li Wen, who will be the new leader’s next press secretary. His Democratic Progressive Party is pushing for Taiwan’s separation from China.
But Mr. Lai, 64, faces hurdles in trying to stick to the course set by his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen.
Unlike Tsai, Lai is inexperienced in foreign policy negotiations and has a history of belligerent rhetoric, which can come back to haunt him. He will also have to deal with two valiant opposition parties that won a majority of seats in parliament earlier this year, a challenge Tsai has not faced in her eight years as president.
When Tsai took office in 2016, Xi’s hardline policies were beginning to stir opposition in the West. However, Western countries are currently also troubled by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Mr. Xi is trying to weaken the alliance built against China. And with the US election looming, there is growing uncertainty about the direction of foreign policy.
“The international environment will be much more difficult for Lai in 2024 than it was for Tsai in 2016,” said Caris Templeman, a researcher at the Hoover Institution think tank at Stanford University who studies Taiwanese politics. “The war in Ukraine, China’s shift toward further domestic repression, the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, and the past eight years of cross-strait hostilities have placed Mr. Lai in an even more difficult position.”
The Chinese government has already made it clear that it dislikes Lai more than Tsai. In the coming weeks and months, he could seek to weaken his presidency by increasing military and trade pressure on Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s team of officials is also actively lobbying Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang Party, which supports closer ties with China and won the most seats in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan in this year’s elections.
Lai is not the reckless agitator that Chinese officials imagine him to be, but Beijing is unlikely to let go of his 2017 statement that he was a “pragmatic activist for Taiwan’s independence.” said Brent Christensen, former director of the American Institute. A Taiwanese man whom Mr. Li met when he was a fledgling politician. (Washington has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and the institute is its de facto embassy.)
Mr. Christensen, now an adjunct professor at Brigham Young University, said of Mr. Lai that he “has a long memory of Beijing and a very deep distrust of him.” “They will continue to test him over the next few years.”
Officials close to Mr. Lai said that continued U.S. aid to Ukraine does not threaten Taiwan’s security lifeline with the United States. On the contrary, they say.
Taiwan’s outgoing foreign minister, Joseph Wu, said in a recent article in Foreign Affairs that “an expression of our undiminished and unquestionable determination to defend democracy does not undermine the defense of a place like Taiwan. ” he said. “In fact, this is an important deterrent against adventurism on the Chinese side.”
Still, there is debate in Taiwan about how much the United States can help Taiwan build up its military in the coming years, while continuing to deal with the Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars, both of which are expected to end soon.
Eric Gomez and Benjamin Giltner of the Cato Institute think tank in Washington estimate that Taiwan’s undelivered order backlog for weapons and military equipment from the United States has grown to nearly $20 billion by late April. It went up. In his email, Gomez said the additional funding for Taiwan recently approved by Congress “helps, but is not a silver bullet.”
Opponents of Lai in Taiwan say he risks pushing Taiwan into a security impasse, is unable to talk to Beijing, and is unprepared for any confrontation. Fu Kunchi, a Taiwanese Nationalist Party lawmaker who recently visited China, cited Ukraine as a warning.
“Since ancient times, people from small countries and regions have not fought against the largest neighboring country,” Fu said in an interview. “Is it really in the interests of the Americans to go to war across the Taiwan Strait? I really don’t think so, but is it possible for the United States to face three battlefields at the same time?”
Domestic political divisions that could linger in Mr. Lai’s government were agitating in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan last week. Lawmakers from opposing parties shoved, shouted and scuffled over proposed new rules for vetting government officials.
Taiwanese government officials and many experts say it is unlikely that Mr. Lai will clash with Beijing immediately after taking office. Mr. Xi’s desire to stabilize relations with the United States and focus on repairing China’s economy has made him less willing to risk exposure to a crisis over Taiwan.
For now, Mr. Xi is likely to apply military, economic and political pressure on Taiwan instead. In recent months, China has dispatched coast guard vessels near the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen Island near mainland China, with the aim of deterring and threatening a potential conflict that could involve the US government.
Experts say Mr. Lai could begin to calm tensions with Beijing by offering reassuring words in his inaugural address. That could include emphasizing its commitment to a constitution that calls Taiwan the Republic of China. Others close to Mr. Yori were skeptical that a significant improvement in relations was possible.
Lai Chun Lai, chairman of the Prospect Foundation, a government-funded think tank in Taipei, said Mr. Xi “wants to advance unification and wants to see that progress.” are not related). “However, Taiwan cannot make any further concessions on this point. That is why Lai Ching-de is in the predicament he faces in relations with China.”
