TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan’s new president was sworn in on Monday, extending the rule of a party viewed with suspicion by China, which claims the autonomous island democracy as its own territory.
Former Vice President Lai Qingde is expected to largely inherit the policies of his predecessor, but the Chinese government views him as a “separatist” and “troublemaker,” and the Chinese government is threatening to use force to push for unification with Taiwan. Exercise is not ruled out either. During the island’s elections in January, voters warned they were choosing between war and peace.
Lai, also known by his English name William, was sworn in at the Presidential Office Building in central Taipei. In a nearby plaza, crowds gathered to watch marching bands and performers and hear Mr. Lai’s inaugural address.
A bipartisan delegation of former U.S. officials, including former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, traveled to Taiwan for the inauguration. A senior Biden administration official told reporters last week that this is consistent with past practice.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Lai on his appointment in a statement, saying the United States would “advance our common interests and values, deepen our long-standing informal relationship, and maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” We look forward to working with Mr. Rai.” ”
Taiwan’s status is one of the most sensitive issues in the relationship between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China. Mr Lai rejected China’s claims of sovereignty and said only the island’s 23 million people could decide its future.
The United States has no formal ties to Taiwan but is Taiwan’s most important international backer and arms supplier, approving more than $8 billion in military aid last month. U.S. support is key for Taiwan as China seeks to isolate the island diplomatically. Taiwan is currently recognized by only 12 governments in the world.
Last week, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office opposed “‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities and interference by outside forces” and said Lai faces a clear choice between peaceful development and conflict.
Lai, 64, served as vice president under President Tsai Ing-wen and has worked to promote herself as “Tsai 2.0,” said political scientist Lev Nachman, an assistant professor at Taipei’s National Chengchi University. .
But the Democratic Party, anyone in the Democratic Party, He said it was a “deal breaker” for the Chinese government.
“For the past eight years, I have not answered any of Tsai Ing-wen’s calls. Even with the William Lai administration, that will not change,” he said.
China has increased military and other pressure on Taiwan in recent years, particularly since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. China sends military planes and warships toward Taiwan almost every day, and many planes cross the median line. The long-awaited Taiwan Strait served as an unofficial buffer zone.
The Chinese government is likely to express its opposition after Monday’s inauguration; It is unlikely to come close to the scale of the response to Pelosi’s visit, which included live-fire drills surrounding the island.
That’s partly due to recent support from former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou and a group of lawmakers from the pro-China opposition Kuomintang Party, who have visited China separately in the past few weeks. After these visits, some of the frozen cross-strait tourism and trade resumed.
“I think there’s a reason for them to keep things quiet in order to grow such a small but meaningful exchange from a Kuomintang perspective,” Nachman said, using the Kuomintang abbreviation. Told.
Following Pelosi’s visit, she said China’s escalating threat has become the new normal, to the point where “massive incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone don’t even make the news.”
Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday that it had detected 45 Chinese military aircraft around Taiwan, the highest number in a single day this year.
Nachman said Taiwan’s China policy is unlikely to change under the Lai administration for several reasons. The first is public opinion. The majority of public opinion supports maintaining the status quo without formally declaring independence or becoming part of China.
Second, neither the DPP nor any other party won a parliamentary majority in the January elections, limiting Lai’s ability to pass legislation at a time when Taiwan is grappling with a number of domestic issues. A dispute over parliamentary reform erupted in Taiwan’s parliament on Friday, with members shoving and tackling each other.
Finally, “the United States has made it clear that the Democratic Party will not cross any red line that changes the status quo,” Nachman said.
China has never publicly laid out a timeline for reunification with Taiwan, and U.S. officials say President Xi Jinping has ordered the Chinese military to be ready for invasion by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. However, experts believe that President Xi Jinping will prepare the Chinese military to unify Taiwan. Prefers to avoid conflict.
“As long as Beijing believes that peaceful unification with Taiwan is still possible, there will be no war over Taiwan,” said Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security Strategy and a former colonel in the People’s Liberation Army. he wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine last week.
“If you doubt that the prospects for peaceful unification are forever exhausted, that calculus will change.”
Zhu Feng, dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Relations, also said he believed it was unlikely that a direct military conflict over Taiwan would occur during Mr. Lai’s tenure.
“Mr. Lai Chingde is adamant about Taiwan’s independence, but he is also well aware that pursuing de jure Taiwanese independence and fully challenging mainland China to the bottom is definitely not good for Taiwan.” Stated.
Barring an unforeseen crisis, Nachman said the situation in Taiwan is likely to remain unchanged at least until the US presidential election in November.
“If Donald Trump is re-elected, all predictability and certainty will disappear and everything we have to say about cross-strait relations will change dramatically,” he said.
Janis Mackey Frayer reported from Taipei and Jennifer Jett and Larissa Gao from Hong Kong.
