Attraction of Pakistan and space politics
With the first images of the moon taken by Pakistan’s first lunar exploration mission ‘ICUBE-Qamar’ arriving on Monday, it is clear that the country is making some progress in the space club. Earlier this month, Pakistan launched a cubic satellite into lunar orbit on China’s Chang’e 6 mission. Four days later, the satellite successfully entered the moon’s orbit. The satellite, which will be launched in low Earth orbit, is proposed for research and development purposes only and is intended to image the lunar surface and collect data on the lunar magnetic field.
While ICUBE-Q is an important feat for Pakistan, and its success could lead to bigger space missions such as landing on the moon, the launch also signals a space policy that Pakistan lacks. ICUBE-Q was a research proposal from the Institute of Space Technology (IST), Pakistan’s space university. The IST team designed and developed the program in collaboration with China’s Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Pakistan’s national space agency, SUPARCO. It must be noted that this satellite is not an indigenous effort by Pakistan’s space agency, but was carried on board China’s moon exploration mission. However, this limited thinking about space technology and development is justified by the country’s political and economic crisis.
The ongoing political turmoil intensifies as the February 2024 elections approach, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan disqualified from running and jailed in three cases a week before the elections. Political unpredictability is causing severe fluctuations in the country’s economy as it faces record high inflation. For economically strapped Islamabad, political stability and traditional security issues are understandably pressing concerns, while space and emerging technologies have taken a backseat.
In the race to space, ICUBE-Q cannot be separated from geopolitics. In fact, geopolitical conflicts in South Asia now extend into space.
-Kashun Riza
In the race to space, ICUBE-Q cannot be separated from geopolitics. In fact, geopolitical conflicts in South Asia now extend into space. Pakistan’s cube satellite on board the Chinese mission speaks to the ever-expanding cooperation between Pakistan and China in space research and development. This is not the first time that China has carried Pakistan into space. In 2018, China used a Long March 2C carrier rocket to launch two Pakistani satellites into orbit. China and Pakistan signed a space cooperation agreement in 2019 on the sidelines of China’s Belt and Road Summit. Under the agreement, both countries aim to conduct peaceful exploration and technological experiments in space. With Chang’e 6, China becomes the first country to collect lunar samples from the largely unexplored Antarctic region. Pakistan’s space community hopes to participate in exploration through this cooperation.
Following the successful launch of ICUBE-Q, analysts are speculating about a possible space race between India and Pakistan. It must be noted that ICUBE-Q was developed after India launched the spacecraft Chandrayaan-3 in the south polar region of the moon. Similarly, the China-Pakistan space cooperation agreement was announced close to India’s successful anti-satellite missile test (ASAT) in 2019. In the past, India and Pakistan have engaged in evenly matched defensive postures, including the infamous Pulwama-Balakot attack. Between India and Pakistan, any development in emerging technology that has the potential to disrupt the status quo and destabilize the strategic balance is perceived as a threat to the other country. Therefore, the next possible realm could be space.
Meanwhile, the trajectory of India’s space program is inspired by competition with China. The former chairman of the Indian Space Agency, ISRO, admitted that the premise of India going to Mars was to get ahead of China. India’s ASAT test makes it the fourth country after the US, Russia and China to possess strategic military capabilities in space. Similarly, India’s participation in the Artemis Accords was geopolitically motivated by the China-Russia International Lunar Research Station Agreement. Given the U.S. military’s heavy reliance on space capabilities, the development of ASAT weapons is critical to great power competition.
Considering the geopolitical dynamics surrounding space, it is pertinent for Pakistan to clarify its space policy as political instability limits the country’s growth only to traditional security. This is why there is limited discussion about space missions and ASAT exams in Islamabad. In the long term, Pakistan needs to consider leveraging its dedicated resources to develop its space capabilities and establish itself in the space domain.
– Kashoon Leeza is a policy analyst specializing in technology and foreign policy in the South Asia region. She has previously worked with the Government of Pakistan on national security and foreign policy issues.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News.
