After two Game 7s (including one instant classic) to conclude the second round on Sunday, the conference finals are set for the 2024 NBA Playoffs. In the East, the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics faced the No. 6 seed Pacers, and the team lost in a big way, similar to the 2021 Hawks. In the West Division, the 3rd place Timberwolves, who defeated the Nuggets and secured the new championship for the 6th consecutive season, will face off against the 5th place Mavericks.
Think about the young legacy that’s beginning to be built here. By the end of June, one of Anthony Edwards (22), Tyrese Haliburton (24), Luka Doncic (25) or Jayson Tatum (26) will have won their first championship. All of these players will be younger than LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, Nikola Jokic or Dirk Nowitzki to register as first-year champions.
So who will it be? Well, first we have to decide on the conference finals. With that in mind, here are our expert picks.
Eastern Conference Finals: Celtics vs. Pacers
Botkin: Celtics are 4th. I don’t think Indiana will get a game here. Boston has too many weapons. Indiana won the 2021 Hawks with a completely broken bracket heading into a surprise conference finals game against two injury-hit teams in the Bucs and Knicks, but that dream ends here. And it ends quickly.
Herbert: The Celtics are fifth. These two are great offensive teams, and if the Celtics aren’t as sharp as they should be, it’s going to last much longer than this. But Boston’s defense is much better than Indiana’s, and coach Joe Mazzula will make sure his team understands that it all starts with decision-making. If the Celtics can take care of the ball and space the floor properly, they should be able to limit the offense. Pacers in transition are the most dangerous.
Quinn: The Celtics are fifth. Game 7 proved how dynamic the Pacers can be when the shots are falling. The Knicks’ remaining series shows how vulnerable they can be when they aren’t. Even without Kristaps Porzingis, Boston is much stronger than the depleted Knicks. The Celtics offered Indiana’s weak defense no place to hide, and Boston scored 126 points per 100 possessions against Indiana this season. The Pacers will win the game on shooting alone, but lose the series overall.
Ward-Henninger: The Celtics are sixth. Defense will be a big issue for Indiana, but I think the Pacers’ ability to put up high point totals will help them against a Celtics team that tends to be a little patchy offensively in places. That said, talent will win out, especially if Kristaps Porzingis can return late in the series. It was an incredible run for Indiana, but it ended here.
Wimbish: Celtics 6th place. The Pacers have benefited from injuries to both opponents so far, with Porzingis currently playing against Boston. But even if KP doesn’t play a single game in this series, the Celtics have enough firepower to get past Indiana. But I’ll give the Pacers two games because they have a chance to ignite their offense.
Botkin: Timberwolves are seventh. This feels like another coin toss, and as we approach the end of the series, I’m going to win with great defense. It all started with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for Dallas, and the Timberwolves have a wave of defenders to throw at them and a wave of big bodies behind them. OKC played a lot of perimeter defense, which was particularly successful in limiting Irving’s ability as a scorer, but it opened up opportunities for shooters, and P.J. Washington made a shot. One, we’ll never see Washington take shots like that again, and two, Minnesota is even better at getting over screens and interfering with ball handlers, and this one… This means that in hard doubles like this, the off-shooter may not need to be helped as much.
Herbert: Timberwolves are fifth. On the other hand, the Mavericks weren’t all that great offensively against OKC, but now they’ll be facing an even longer team that can’t be bullied. On the other hand, the Timberwolves weren’t that great offensively against Denver, and now they’ll face a team with the league’s third-best offensive line looking disjointed. This is not an easy choice, but I choose Minnesota because I have confidence in our role players.
Quinn: Timberwolves are 7th. This is going to hit the nail on the head. Oklahoma City threw doubles to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and tried to force their teammates to beat them. Minnesota will probably try to protect them right up front, at least early on, and they have defenders who can make them work. Dallas owned the paint in the final round. Minnesota was much, much bigger than Oklahoma City. Derrick Jones Jr. will give Anthony Edwards trouble. Mike Conley plays through injury, but can he take on more creative duties? At the end of the day, I follow home court advantage. This could go either way.
Ward Henninger: Timberwolves win in 7. Seeing how the Wolves were able to suffocate the defending champions, it’s hard to think that the Mavs, who have struggled offensively for much of the postseason, will be able to improve. That being said, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are unique talents who can consistently attack even the best defenses. One of the reasons I picked Minnesota in the last two rounds was because I didn’t trust their clutch offense, and I’m still not confident, but I’m a convert to Anthony Edwards, so I won’t play him again. I don’t blame you.
Wimbish: 7th place Mavericks. The Timberwolves will be a difficult matchup for Dallas, but with Gobert and KAT closing in, it will be difficult to score points at the rim. Say goodbye to the lobs of Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, and Derek Lively II. But I’m betting their defense will cause problems as well, with the Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving duo going to be more consistent stars.
