With just six simple words, Mike North, the NFL’s vice president of broadcast planning, inadvertently pulled off a pretty important curtain when it comes to competitive fairness in professional football.
they owe us.
It wasn’t until North uttered that word in reference to the Jets’ 2024 schedule that the NFL exploited the incredible power it has to make things easier or harder for certain teams based on their game schedule. Few people paid attention to the question of whether this was actually the case. I played.
The Jets haven’t been to the playoffs since 2010, but they haven’t done anything to earn them a high-profile game. However, he acquired a number of players last year in the Aaron Rodgers trade. This year, the Jets got him seven games, his first solitary game in his 11 weeks. Because, as North said, “They kind of owe us one game.”
So did the Jets’ lack of success in 2023 lead to a more challenging schedule of three games in 10 days to start the season? That makes no sense and goes against the league’s general approach of competitive balance from one year to the next.
“Good” teams should have a more mixed schedule, “bad” teams should play most of their games on Sunday afternoons, but as TV rights fees rose, the league decided to pick teams based on who could handle the strain of playing more games with less rest and under greater scrutiny.
The Chiefs clearly have a hopscotch schedule in reserve, and they have been successful in shouldering that obligation in the past.
“They were our bell cow for a while, right?North recently told Adam Schefter: “They’re used to hauling our water for these unique opportunities here.”
Still, in the same interview, North also acknowledged (contrary to those who think everything is rigged in the Chiefs’ favor) that the league has presented a very tough challenge for a team that has won back-to-back championships. .
“We probably gave the Chiefs the toughest schedule in the league,” North said. “I think they’ll be in it by playoff time.”
The Chiefs will too, but it won’t be easy. It won’t be easy for the Jets, either, for reasons unrelated to their recent on-field accomplishments.
The broader point, which I didn’t understand until North said “they owe us,” is that the league has a lot of influence over the competitive fairness of the season based on the schedule of games. They can (and do) give some teams a tough schedule, and they know it.
There should be a formula based on how teams performed the previous year. The final four teams should face the greatest strain of limited rest due to primetime bingo and rest inequality due to playing teams coming off bye weeks. Teams not in the playoffs should play the majority of their games on Sundays at 1pm (or 4:05pm).
Instead, the league is free to do whatever it wants with no guardrails. While the obvious goal is to create the most attractive single-game schedule, there are many other biases and agendas that can come into play. Last year, for example, teams that dared to opt out of the Thursday night flex option seemed more likely to play multiple Sunday and Thursday games.
The broader lesson for anyone looking to bet on wins, division titles or Super Bowl winners is to wait.
Specifically, wait until the schedule is announced before placing any such bets, as placing a bet before then will make the bet even more silly than it is now.
In recent years, some have been surprised by the attention given to schedule announcements, as the “when” has simply been added to the “who” and “where” of the 272-game schedule. However, “when” means everything. Especially as processes become less and less random and structured, and more and more strategic and planned.
