China began two days of military drills around Taiwan after the island swore in its new president, Lai Ching-te.
Lai succeeds Tsai Ing-wen, who has been Taiwan’s president since 2016. Both are from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a pro-sovereignty party hated by Beijing and considered separatist. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to seize it, by force if necessary.
The name of this joint sword training exercise has the suffix “-2024A”, raising expectations that more training will be conducted this year.
How important is training?
This exercise was the most significant since similar exercises began for Taiwan in August 2022 and April 2023. However, the scale of the attack appears to have been small, and no live ammunition was fired near Taiwan on the first day.
Military drills were widely expected around Taiwan this week, and while reaction to Lai’s victory in January was relatively muted, analysts had been eyeing a Chinese show of force in response to the inauguration on May 20.
Vice Adm. Steven Skreka, deputy commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said the exercise was “concerning” but expected. “Normalizing abnormal behavior, that’s what’s happening,” Skreka said.
Coast Guard vessels also participated in Thursday’s exercise, which in recent years has been increasingly used for law enforcement and military-related purposes. After a fatal collision between an illegal Chinese fishing boat and a Taiwanese coast guard vessel near Kinmen Island in February, China stepped up patrols and clarified its maritime boundaries, which had previously been tacitly respected. showed an attitude of refusal.
How big is this military exercise compared to previous ones?
Like previous military exercises, Thursday’s drill appears to be an exercise in blockade techniques. A map of the drill site showed Chinese forces targeting five waters around Taiwan and several smaller waters around Taiwan’s islands adjacent to the Chinese mainland. Taiwan’s smaller islands were not included in the targets in the August 2022 drill.
So far, the training appears to be smaller in scale and lower intensity in terms of activity levels than in 2022 and 2023. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) remained outside the 24-nautical-mile limit in Taiwanese waters and only conducted live-fire exercises inland, not across the strait or at sea. No no-fly zones were declared.
The 2022 exercise will include launching ballistic missiles into the sea beyond mainland Taiwan, and analysts say the 2023 exercise will significantly improve fighter launches from aircraft carriers, increasing “near-war” capabilities. I think so. The People’s Liberation Army Navy began test cruises for its third aircraft carrier this year. Analysts say the carrier’s addition to the fleet will significantly improve China’s ability to maintain a strong presence in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea and East China Sea.
Why does Beijing dislike Taiwan’s new president?
China has said this week’s drills are a “separatist act” – a “punishment” for Taiwan voting for Lai as president.
The Chinese government considers the Democratic Progressive Party to be separatist and cut off contact with the Taiwanese government in 2016, shortly after President Tsai Ing-wen took office. The Chinese government is particularly concerned about Mr. Lai, who has previously strongly advocated Taiwan’s independence. In recent years, and during the presidential election campaign, Mr. Lai has softened this stance, moving closer to President Tsai Ing-wen’s line of not formally declaring Taiwan independence since Taiwan already enjoys de facto autonomy.
Nevertheless, the Chinese government dislikes Lai and took particular exception to parts of his inaugural address that seemed to advocate more strongly for Taiwan’s separation from China than Tsai typically does. . Chinese state media CCTV said in a report on Thursday that Lai “will be glued to the pillars of history.”
Is Beijing planning war?
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made it clear that he views resolving the “Taiwan problem” as part of his accomplishments. Analysts and Western intelligence agencies have cited as early as 2027 as the deadline by which the People’s Liberation Army has been directed to prepare for conflict.
Zhang Zhi, a lecturer at the People’s Liberation Army National Defense University, told state media that this week’s drill sites in the north “sent a warning” to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Zhang, who was not speaking on behalf of the People’s Liberation Army, said the eastern region cuts off Taiwan’s energy imports, support lines from the United States and other allies, and “an escape route for Taiwanese independence forces.”
Zhang’s comments were likely intended to send a message to international audiences that the PLA takes these drills very seriously, and to reassure domestic audiences of China’s strength and dominance.
There are growing concerns that Beijing may not launch an all-out attack, but rather increase non-military “grey zone” activities that would make it difficult for Taiwan and other stakeholders to calculate a response. These have already included increased coast guard patrols around Taiwan’s outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu, changing flight paths to Taiwan’s side of the median line, and frequent deployment of weather balloons. Weather balloons are for civilian use, but they can also be deployed frequently, and they can also collect detailed microclimate data that is useful for weather monitoring; artillery attacks on Taiwanese airspace; and all activities that are presumably civilian, legal, and difficult to respond to, but that nevertheless put pressure on Taiwan.
