Analysis of voter turnout after five rounds of voting revealed that of the 409 seats with data available for comparison with 2019, turnout declined this year in 258 seats (almost two-thirds), and 88 seats (more than one in five people) saw a decrease in the total number of voters compared to five years ago.
Seats with low voter turnout or low absolute votes are not evenly distributed but are concentrated in a few states: for example, all 20 seats in Kerala saw a decline in voter turnout, with 12 of them seeing fewer voters than in 2019. In Uttarakhand, all five seats saw a decline in voter turnout and three of the six seats saw fewer voters this time around.
In Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, almost half of the seats saw a decline in absolute number of voters, and turnout fell in almost 90% of seats in these states. Turnout also fell in three-quarters of seats in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, but in these heartland Hindi-speaking states, only about one-third of seats saw fewer voters than in 2019.
In Gujarat, 25% of seats saw a decline in votes compared to 2019.
In Gujarat and West Bengal, turnout was lower than in 2019 in all but one seat, but in Bengal the increase in the number of voters more than offset the decline in turnout, with no seats experiencing a decline in voter turnout. In Gujarat, voter turnout decreased in about a quarter of seats. Similarly, in Bihar, turnout was lower than in 2019 in 21 of the 24 seats, but only one seat saw an absolute decline in voter turnout.
In Maharashtra, voter turnout fell in 20 of 48 seats, but only six saw fewer people turn out to vote on election day. Interestingly, of the six seats nationwide out of the 409 analyzed here that saw a decline in voter numbers compared to 2019, five were in Maharashtra, including Pune and Mumbai South. But only three of the five saw a decline in voter turnout this time around.
In Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Odisha, Telangana and West Bengal, no constituency saw a lower turnout than in 2019, but there were several constituencies with lower voter turnout in all states. Chhattisgarh was the only major state where both voter turnout and absolute vote total were higher in all constituencies.
While the Election Commission does not release data on the absolute number of votes for each seat, the fact that voters are known and turnout is known to two decimal points means that it is possible to calculate a rough estimate of the number of votes. This analysis is based on that estimate. Of the 428 seats for which voting took place, 14 in Assam and five in Jammu and Kashmir have since been redrawn, so only 409 seats can be compared to 2019.
Seats with low voter turnout or low absolute votes are not evenly distributed but are concentrated in a few states: for example, all 20 seats in Kerala saw a decline in voter turnout, with 12 of them seeing fewer voters than in 2019. In Uttarakhand, all five seats saw a decline in voter turnout and three of the six seats saw fewer voters this time around.
In Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, almost half of the seats saw a decline in absolute number of voters, and turnout fell in almost 90% of seats in these states. Turnout also fell in three-quarters of seats in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, but in these heartland Hindi-speaking states, only about one-third of seats saw fewer voters than in 2019.
In Gujarat, 25% of seats saw a decline in votes compared to 2019.
In Gujarat and West Bengal, turnout was lower than in 2019 in all but one seat, but in Bengal the increase in the number of voters more than offset the decline in turnout, with no seats experiencing a decline in voter turnout. In Gujarat, voter turnout decreased in about a quarter of seats. Similarly, in Bihar, turnout was lower than in 2019 in 21 of the 24 seats, but only one seat saw an absolute decline in voter turnout.
In Maharashtra, voter turnout fell in 20 of 48 seats, but only six saw fewer people turn out to vote on election day. Interestingly, of the six seats nationwide out of the 409 analyzed here that saw a decline in voter numbers compared to 2019, five were in Maharashtra, including Pune and Mumbai South. But only three of the five saw a decline in voter turnout this time around.
In Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Odisha, Telangana and West Bengal, no constituency saw a lower turnout than in 2019, but there were several constituencies with lower voter turnout in all states. Chhattisgarh was the only major state where both voter turnout and absolute vote total were higher in all constituencies.
While the Election Commission does not release data on the absolute number of votes for each seat, the fact that voters are known and turnout is known to two decimal points means that it is possible to calculate a rough estimate of the number of votes. This analysis is based on that estimate. Of the 428 seats for which voting took place, 14 in Assam and five in Jammu and Kashmir have since been redrawn, so only 409 seats can be compared to 2019.
