This moist and unstable air mass will persist until a strong cold front dissipates Monday night.
Listen to the daily DC weather forecast: Apple Podcasts | Amazon Echo | Other options
Until tonight: The highest chance (about 50 percent) of strong storms will occur late in the evening and overnight. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy. Lows will drop to the mid to near 70 degrees with an uncomfortable dew point. Scattered fog is possible near sunrise as relative humidity could reach 100 percent.
See the Washington Post Current Weather.
Memorial Day (Monday): Partly cloudy and sunny conditions will be more likely. Morning showers and storms are possible, but severe storms with prolonged heavy rainfall appear unlikely. Widespread, potentially damaging storms are more likely in the afternoon and evening.
Non-stormy wind gusts out of the south-southwest could reach about 25 mph, providing some relief from the oppressive temperatures in the low to mid 80s F. By midnight, most showers, storms and breeze will die down as an active cold front moves through. By sunrise, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s F.
look Molly Roby’s midweek forecastCome chat tomorrow upon Youtube, Facebook, Instagram and X! 20 minutes Holiday Monday Sunset Live Q&A Starts at 8:25 p.m.
Two-Part Briefing: Tonight’s and Tomorrow’s Storms
Tonight’s Part 1: Severe storms similar to last night’s are possible, likely to be strongest after 10pm.
We need to keep an eye on the Ohio Valley tonight, as we have a storm complex moving toward the Appalachians well ahead of tomorrow night’s cold front. This complex may weaken as it approaches our area, but given atmospheric conditions, it’s usually best to exercise a little caution. Here’s a sample radar forecast from 8 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday:
The storm could move through central Virginia and along Interstate 64 later tonight, but the National Weather Service said it sees limited concern and an overall severe threat as “marginal at best due to moderate instability and shear.”
Part 2, tomorrow: The widespread storms, which will develop between about noon and 9pm, could become very organized and powerful.
“The combination of an approaching cold front, upper level disturbances, unstable air and strong winds aloft will produce numerous thunderstorms” — likely in the form of waves of intense thunderstorm cells or columns of cells, said storm specialist Jeff Halverson. “Some storms will be locally intense and severe thunderstorm watches may be required.”
Many threats are expected, with wind gusts of at least 58 mph being the main threat. Lightning, hail, and tornadoes are also possible. Due to the fast-moving storm, heavy rains will be short-lived and flooding will be less of a concern. Tomorrow’s simulated radar will be active from noon to 9 p.m.
Halverson said all of these elements could come together for thunderstorms to form in the region. Clouds are one unknown variable — more clouds tomorrow could mean fewer thunderstorms — but high levels of convective potential energy and wind shear (when winds change at different heights in the atmosphere) could result in a large thunderstorm “supercell” along with a tornado or two.
Stay tuned. The next severe weather update will be issued tomorrow morning as we evaluate the latest data on this potentially dangerous weather. If you plan on being out on your day off tomorrow, please keep a weather watch on you. Tomorrow’s forecast will discuss the storm and cover the weather for the shortened week ahead. Holiday Monday Sunset Live Q&A YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and XThe 20-minute chat begins at 8:25 p.m.
subscribe Please respond to my 5am weather email.
