Indian Lok Sabha elections: Caste calculations favour BJP, likely to win

Bhadohi is one of the 80 Indian Parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. Currently, Bhadohi Lok Sabha constituency consists of five Vidhan Sabha constituencies namely Pratappur (SP), Handia (SP), Bhadohi (SP), Gyanpur (Nishad Party) and Aurai (BJP).

Current Members of Parliament: Ramesh Chand Bhind (BJP)

Top contenders: Vinod Kumar Bhind (BJP), Lalitesh Pati Tripathi (TMC)

Election Date: May 25, 2024 (Phase VI)

Political dynamics

• BJP predicts easy victory: In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had defeated Bhadohi by a margin of around 43,000 votes. The saffron party is said to be in the lead again and the gap between the BJP and the Indian Union is said to have widened since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election campaign on May 16.
• The BJP changed its candidate and fielded Vinod Kumar Bhind from Bhadohi. The incumbent MP Ramesh Kumar Bhind lost the seat. Interestingly, Ramesh Bhind is not a very well-liked leader among the BJP’s local and state leadership, nor has he done any special work for the constituency in the last five years. The feeling that he is a backward MP is cited as one of the biggest reasons why the party lost him this time.
• Vinod Bhind, the BJP candidate in this election, is actually a member of the NISHAD Party but is contesting under the lotus symbol. Bhind is currently a member of the state assembly from the Marjawan constituency.
• Naturally, Ramesh Bindu is not taking the BJP’s decision to lose out coolly. In an interesting development, he is said to have been subtly urging his supporters to vote for the Samajwadi Party-backed TMC candidate. Ramesh Bindu’s display picture on Facebook has been changed to a bike instead of a Lotus. This has fuelled speculations that the sitting BJP MP may switch to the Samajwadi Party.
• However, given that the caste calculations are completely in the saffron party’s favour, the BJP is expected to win the Bhadohi constituency with relative ease. The largest caste groups here are the Brahmins and Bhinds, both with over 300,000 voters each. The Bhind community is expected to wholeheartedly support the BJP and at least half of the Brahmin voters will also side with the saffron party.
• Meanwhile, Mauryas, Patels and Jogis are also expected to vote in large numbers for the BJP, giving the party a considerable advantage over the opposition Hindustan Party. These communities are also known to turn out in large numbers to vote.
• The BJP is capitalising on the fact that the Samajwadi Party-Indian National Congress alliance chose to cede the Bhadohi Lok Sabha seat to the TMC. The subtle message it is trying to send is that the TMC is an alien party to Uttar Pradesh. It also highlights how Mamata Banerjee’s party has institutionalised bad governance in West Bengal.
• Additionally, the BJP is also keen to highlight the work it has done at the centre over the past decade. Schemes such as the PM-Awaas Yojana, which provides housing, electricity, water and other basic amenities, feature prominently in the BJP’s election campaign. Free ration to the poor has also emerged as a major issue that is expected to benefit the saffron party. PM Modi’s focus on infrastructure has also been continuously highlighted.
• The TMC is venturing into uncharted territory and is hoping that the SP will deliver results for Bhadohi. As part of the Indian Union, the Samajwadi Party has decided to give the Bhadohi LS seat to the Trinamool Congress. Bhadohi is the only seat contested by the TMC in Uttar Pradesh.
• The TMC has fielded Lalitesh Pati Tripathi against the BJP’s Vinod Bhind. Tripathi is a Brahmin and the TMC is hoping to rally Brahmin support here. But there are no signs of Brahmins moving away from the BJP in any significant way. Hence, the TMC’s gamble is not expected to yield any concrete results.
• The TMC does not have an organisational base in Bhadohi, or indeed in the entire state of Uttar Pradesh. In Bhadohi, the party is completely dependent on the Samajwadi Party and the Indian National Congress. It would have been impossible for the TMC to take on the BJP without the support of these parties.
• Despite having the full support of the SP and the Indian National Congress, the TMC remains an alien political organisation in Bhadohi. Many voters have never heard of the TMC, do not understand why it is contesting from their constituency and above all are unaware of the party’s symbol. Voters who have traditionally voted for the BJP’s lotus, the BSP’s cycle, the Indian National Congress’s hand or the SP’s cycle for most of their lives cannot be expected to suddenly vote for the TMC’s two flower symbol.
• The TMC has no one else apart from Akhilesh Yadav who can garner votes in Bhadohi. The Muslim-Yadav combine is expected to shift votes from the SP to the TMC but that alone will not be enough to defeat the BJP. The saffron party, on the other hand, has PM Modi and PM Yogi, who are widely respected across the constituency.
• SP leaders privately admit that the TMC has no support base of its own and is totally dependent on the Samajwadi voters. In essence, the fight here is between the BJP and the SP. In any case, the BJP holds an advantage in Bhadohi.

Key Issues

• Caste Dynamics: Caste will play an important role in Bhadohi. Interestingly, caste is expected to take precedence over the Ram temple factor. The BJP has fielded a candidate from the Bhind caste, which has a population of 300,000-400,000 in Bhadohi. This community is likely to vote primarily for the saffron party.
• As mentioned earlier, Mauryas, Patels, Jogis and Brahmins will mostly support the BJP. The TMC may garner some Brahmin votes but it will mean nothing as the BJP has a comfortable lead among various castes.
• Muslims and Yadavs are likely to side with whichever party the Samajwadi Party tells them to vote for, in this case the TMC, while the BSP has also fielded a candidate from the constituency, which will further worsen the TMC’s prospects by splitting the Dalit vote.
• infrastructure: The biggest boost for the BJP in Bhadohi is the image of PM Modi as a development (Vikas)-oriented leader who has delivered a ton of initiatives in Bhadohi and across Uttar Pradesh. For those who have never seen a government in action and proactive in upgrading and building new infrastructure facilities, the last decade has been a pleasant surprise.
• Basic amenities: The Modi government’s welfare schemes, especially those that have provided housing, water, electricity and LPG connections to underprivileged and poor families, have been widely praised. The DBT transfer has ensured that government assistance reaches those who need it most and free ration distribution has also been a huge success. These and infrastructure developments strengthen the belief that only Narendra Modi truly cares about the poor and marginalized and therefore, he must be brought back to power.
• Carpet industry: The carpet industry of Bhadohi needs no introduction, it is so renowned that the carpet currently laying on the new Parliament building was woven in Bhadohi.
• According to the Uttar Pradesh government, the carpet industry in the Mirzapur-Bhadohi region employs around 3.2 million people, with 2.2 million rural artisans employed in Bhadohi district alone. In recent years, there has been growing disillusionment with the industry.
• The Modi government’s decision to restrict import refunds and remove subsidies has dealt a severe blow to Bhadohi carpet weavers, with weavers and business owners alike unhappy with the government’s inaction.
• However, local sources suggest that the government is beginning to focus on the industry and is working to expand production capacity. In 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the country and the industry was in dire need of help, the two virtual expos proved pivotal in breathing new life into the carpet sector.
• As a result, overseas buyers placed orders worth Rs 25 crore, giving a much-needed boost to exporters of handmade carpets. Now, these exhibitions have become a regular annual event in Bhadohi, helping the carpet industry bag the much-needed big-ticket orders.

Demographics

• Total voters: 19,40,675
• SC: 430,830 (22.2%)
• ST: 1,941 (0.1%)
• Urban voters: 186,305 (9.6%)
• Rural voters: 1,754,370 (90.4%)
• Hindu: 86.4%
• Muslim: 13.11%
• 2019 voter turnout: 53.4%

development

• Kandia Railway Crossing Bridge: The flyover, being constructed at a cost of Rs 6,500 crore, will ease congestion at the bottleneck section and improve connectivity between Bhadohi and Varanasi.
• Varanasi-Bhadohi NH 731 B: The widening of National Highway 731B between Varanasi and Bhadohi will cost over Rs 9,000 crore, Prime Minister Modi announced in December last year.
• Delhi-Varanasi High Speed ​​Rail Project: The project covers a distance of 958 km and is being constructed at a cost of Rs 1.21 trillion.The line will cover 13 stations, one of which is New Bhadohi in Bhadohi Assembly constituency.
• MSME Cluster: Bhadohi has two MSME clusters that have been completed at a total cost of Rs 11,115,000 crore, which will help boost the local economy and generate employment.
• Rail infrastructure: Footbridges have been constructed at Bhadohi, Mondo and Suriyawan stations and new platform shelters have also been installed. Additionally, level crossing number 30 at Katka Madhosing has been replaced with a road bridge. Four male and four female toilets have been added at Bhadohi station, platform improvement using kota stones and installation of water vending machines have been carried out. Seats have been improved at Bhadohi, Mondo, Suriyawan and Modo stations. Low-cost shelters, stainless steel benches, dustbins and roof sheeting for the footbridge have been installed at Gyanpur station. LED lights have been installed at all stations on the Gyanpur Road line. A new ticket booth has been installed at Handra Khas station.
• Amrit Bharat: Bhadohi station is part of the central government’s Amrit Bharat Station Scheme and the extensive upgradation of the station will provide world-class passenger amenities and help transform the station into a logistics hub.

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