History seems to be repeating itself with eerily regularity in the scenic but politically unstable region of Jammu and Kashmir, but this time unrest linked to political disillusionment and economic issues is emerging from the Pakistan-occupied parts of the divided region.
In 1987, a coalition of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and the Indian National Congress, led by Farooq Abdullah, came to power after elections for the state assembly were widely criticised as rigged. The government increased electricity tariffs as part of power sector reforms, sparking protests in the old city of Srinagar, leaving four people dead in police firing.
The protests quickly spread, sparking calls for azadi (freedom), and marked the beginning of a long, Pakistan-backed insurgency that has raged in the region for more than three decades.
Recent events in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK, also known as Azad Jammu and Kashmir, AJK) reflect this pattern: a rise in electricity tariffs at a time when inflation in Pakistan has soared to 17 percent has sent residents into the streets in protest, leaving four people dead. The civil rights movement achieved its immediate demands but highlighted continuing problems with governance and economic instability.
India controls about 55% of the land area of the former state of Jammu and Kashmir, where 70% of the population lives. Pakistan controls about 30% of the land area, including the so-called Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, and China controls the remaining 15% of the land area, including the Aksai Chin region, the sparsely populated Trans-Karakoram region, and parts of Demchok district. Pakistan gave Gilgit-Baltistan its own administrative arrangement, separating it from the rest of the country. On August 5, 2019, the Indian part of the state was divided into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
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The districts of Neelam and Muzaffarabad in Kashmir border Kupwara and Baramulla districts in the Kashmir Valley. But most of the region, including Bagh, Parindri, Rawalakot, Kotli, Mirpur and Bhambar, is on the other side of Jammu Division.
Although the territories controlled by India and Pakistan have little in common in terms of race or language, they are linked by a boundary drawn in the Amritsar Agreement of 1846 that is still marked on official maps. Although peoples on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) are indifferent to each other’s affairs, their political futures are inextricably linked to the territorial claims and counterclaims made by each government.
Historically, Pakistani Kashmir has not been a hotbed of political unrest. The last time there was major unrest was in February 1992, when the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front encouraged people to cross the Line of Control. Clashes with Pakistani forces were bloody, leaving 12 people dead and 150 injured.
Three Prime Ministers in Four Years
In a parallel with the “unpopular” Farooq government of 1987, Pakistani Kashmir has had three prime ministers in the four years since the 2021 general elections. That year, Sardar Abdul Qayyum Niazi was appointed head of government after then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party won a majority, but he was ousted and replaced by businessman Tanveer Ilyas.
A year later, Chaudhry Anwar-ul-Haq, also from Khan’s party, came to power with the support of Pakistan’s major political parties opposed to Khan, which, according to Justice Manzoor Gillani (retired), former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Arabia and Kashmir, eroded public confidence in the government.
Journalist and analyst Arif Bahar argues that viewing Pakistani Kashmir solely in security terms has undermined leadership and exacerbated the problem. He says the leadership-at-a-distance strategy has failed, as the Joint Action Awami Committee (JAAC) movement has demonstrated.
The government of President Anwar-ul-Haq introduced reforms such as abolishing slush funds, awarding government contracts through electronic bidding, and cutting government spending by more than 90 percent. Austerity measures such as biometric employee attendance tracking and a crackdown on tax evasion proved unpopular among the region’s 127,000 civil servants.
Lack of credibility makes it difficult for governments to implement economic reforms without facing public backlash. Lt. Gen. Asad Durrani, former director of Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI, said, “We have found that governments that lack the trust and support of their people cannot afford to implement reforms such as cutting subsidies or increasing electricity tariffs. Reforms are best implemented by administrations that have the confidence of their people.”
Nabila Irshad, a lawyer and leader of the Jammu and Kashmir Democratic Party, said: Frontline She said the unrest was not directed at the Pakistani state, but acknowledged that successive Pakistani governments had interfered with the term of elected governments to achieve certain objectives, with serious consequences.
“Earlier, the weakness of the people was giving representation to undeserving people on the basis of caste, community and regional affiliation. This incompetent leadership has failed to make the Union government aware of the national interest and instead made it focus on self-interest,” she said.
She said the way forward is to implement true democratic principles, develop competent leaders and ensure that government serves the people fairly.
Another politician from the region, Maria Iqbal Tarana, said the current wave of protests was a sign of change in the region and reflected growing public frustration over economic hardship and discrimination by the federal government in Islamabad. “JAAC’s demands highlight a wider sense of discontent and a desire for fundamental change,” she said.
Tarana, who is also secretary-general of the Pakistan People’s Party’s human rights wing, said the region has its own government headed by a prime minister and supported by a Legislative Assembly, but Islamabad has significant influence over its day-to-day affairs. “Following the abrogation of Article 370 in Indian-administered Kashmir in 2019, there have been concerns about the possible incorporation of Pakistan-administered Kashmir into Pakistan. However, the ongoing unrest is primarily driven by economic grievances and local political demands, rather than fears of assimilation or annexation,” she said.
Tarana said Pakistani Kashmir has not been fully integrated into Pakistan legally and is not recognised as a sovereign state. He said the Pakistani government needs to heed calls for economic relief and political fairness to restore peace in the sensitive region.
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Violent protests have erupted in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir over soaring prices of food, fuel and basic goods, while Islamabad is increasingly complaining about discriminatory practices by the federal government.
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Pakistan has had three prime ministers in the four years since the 2021 general election, and a lack of credibility has made it difficult for the government to implement economic reforms without a public backlash.
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With traditional local politicians not taking the lead in voicing popular grievances, self-proclaimed nationalists have taken a leading role, supporting the creation of a separate state of Jammu and Kashmir based on the pre-1947 borders.
Prime Minister’s Dissatisfaction
Long before the protests took an ugly turn, Anwar-ul-Haq himself had told a meeting of Pakistan’s Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue that he belonged to the last generation of Kashmiris (as the people of Pakistani Kashmir also call themselves) and that he still felt affection for Pakistan.
A video recording of the meeting that has gone viral online can be seen explaining that the new generation is unhappy with the way the Pakistani regime is treating the region.
During his presentation, he said that 2,600MW of electricity is produced in his area but consumption is only 350MW. He wants electricity at the same price as that generated by Mangla Dam in Mirpur. He said the dam produces electricity at 3-4 PKR per unit, which is given to the national grid and power company and further sold to the government at 30 PKR per unit.
A demonstration in Karachi on May 13 in support of civil rights groups protesting in Muzaffarabad. Photo by AKHTAR SOOMRO/REUTERS
“My electricity is unavailable. It first goes to you, then to the Central Power Purchasing Board, then to the Electricity Board. They then write the loss in our account. Every June, they tell us we have a deficit of Rs 600 crore and we cannot pay this amount and they deduct it from our share in the central budget,” Haq said.
He said huge amounts of money were being withheld at source while the government prepares its budget every June and waits for the funds.
He said in the Pakistan Senate that when Pakistan had to build the dam, his region gave up land and sacrificed big cities like Mirpur. He asked Pakistani politicians why they could not build the Kalabag dam on their territory.
“Why are the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh opposed to its construction and why are they not as keen to sacrifice themselves for Pakistan as the people of AJK are,” he questioned.
He warned that successive governments in Pakistan-administered Kashmir have been subjected to breathless pressure. “My generation will be the last generation that has any attachment or love for Pakistan. Relations are weakening with each passing day. The distance between us is getting smaller and smaller. If we speak up, we will be labelled as nationalists, people who are against Pakistan,” he said.
In contrast to the homogenous population of the Kashmir Valley, the demographic makeup of Kashmir is complex. The region is divided into a caste system, i.e. Baradari It is this system that determines voting behaviour. The main groups are Gujjars, Sudanese, Jats, Rajputs, Mughals, Awangs, Dhunds and a small number of Kashmiris. The main language is Pahari, which is close to Hindu and Punjabi.
Kashmiri speakers make up the majority of the Indian population (52.46 percent in the state of Jammu and Kashmir as a whole and 86 percent in the Kashmir Valley) and just 5 percent in Pakistan.
Wider Discontent
Observers say the protests over specific economic grievances reflect broader resentment over disenfranchisement and frequent interference from Islamabad. There are fears that Pakistan, under the pretext of ensuring law and order, will try to integrate Kashmir into neighboring provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, in the process diluting the region’s distinct cultural and political identity and costing its people the privilege of calling themselves Kashmiris.
Pakistan’s response to the crisis will not only determine the future of its governance of Kashmir, but also the country’s diplomatic engagement and strategic posture on the global stage.
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With traditional local politicians not taking the lead in expressing popular discontent, self-described nationalists have taken the lead. These groups have garnered support by taking a stance against both India and Pakistan and by supporting the creation of an independent state for Jammu and Kashmir based on the pre-1947 borders.
Though they barely have a foothold in the Indian part of Jammu and Kashmir, the region is known for its political mishaps and twists and turns, and as such, developments in Kashmir are closely monitored in Srinagar and New Delhi as they could impact stability in this region that is crucial for both India and Pakistan.
Iftikhar Gilani is an Indian journalist based in Ankara.
