Barasat Lok Sabha elections: TMC gains slight advantage by banking on Muslim votes

Barasat constituency is one of the 42 assembly constituencies in West Bengal. The constituency comprises the constituencies of Habra, Ashoknagar, Rajarhat New Town, Bidhannagar, Madhyamgram, Barasat and Deganga, all of which are held by the Trinamool Congress.

Current Members of Parliament: Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar (TMC)

Top contenders: Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar (TMC), Swapan Majumdar (BJP)

Election Date: June 1, 2024 (Phase VII)

Political dynamics

• TMC banking on minority votes to retain Barasat: The Trinamool Congress had won Barasat Assembly constituency in 2019 by a margin of 110,000 votes. The Congress has retained its sitting MP Kakori Ghosh Dastidar, who is now taking on the BJP’s Swapan Majumdar. In terms of ground presence and intensity of campaigning, the TMC and the BJP are neck and neck, with both parties working round the clock to ensure victory.
• The TMC has a slight advantage going into the polls, but the incumbent party’s prospects could take a hit as the polling day approaches and Modi campaigns for the BJP candidate. The TMC is heavily dependent on Muslim voters in the constituency, who make up 27 percent of the total electorate.
• The Muslim vote is expected to go in TMC’s favour across the board, but this is expected to give impetus to reverse polarisation among Hindus, especially Matuas.
• The TMC is also trying its best to attract women voters by promising development and upliftment of the area apart from the fact that the West Bengal government is currently paying monthly allowance to women under the Lakhsmir Bhandar scheme, which is being appreciated by women voters not only in Barasat but across West Bengal.
• However, the fallout from the Sandeshkari incident and the horrific incident in which a woman was allegedly assaulted and raped has dealt a blow to the TMC’s image as a women-friendly party across the state. Though the Sandeshkari incident was unexpected, voters in West Bengal know that this phenomenon is not confined to that region alone. It is a widespread issue that affects women across the state.
• The TMC is also expected to be hit by the fact that its district secretary for North 24 Parghanth and former West Bengal minister Jyotipriya Malick is currently in judicial custody for his alleged involvement in a multi-crore ration scam. As such, he is unable to campaign for the party and his absence has left the TMC with a vacuum on the ground that will be difficult to fill.
• The TMC, which is expected to bag all the Muslim votes, could benefit from the ongoing three-way contest in Barasat. The AISF’s decision to field a candidate from the district has turned the election there into a four-way contest between the Trinamool Congress, BJP, AISF and the All India Forward Block. A possible three-way split in the anti-incumbency vote will come as a relief to the TMC this time around, preventing the BJP from achieving a near-total Hindu consolidation in the constituency.
• Also working in TMC’s favour is the fact that the party holds control of all the seven assembly districts under Barasat LS, an advantage the BJP cannot easily make up for, with TMC legislators galvanising their individual support bases in support of Kakori Dastidar.
• BJP raises big challenge: The BJP is taking on the TMC with a bang. That being said, the battle in Barasat is close. The saffron party has fielded Swapan Majumdar from the constituency and it will be a tough fight to wrest the seat from the TMC.
• For the BJP, a win in Barasat would be special because it would prove that the party has been able to rally a large number of Hindu voters under its banner despite unfavourable demographics. While the TMC is banking on minority votes, the BJP is hoping that intra-Hindu rivalry will boost its prospects.
• The Matuas are now crucial for the BJP. Their majority presence in two constituencies here — Habra and Ashoknagar — will be to the BJP’s advantage. The Matuas are a backward-class Hindu community who came as refugees from Bangladesh. With the promulgation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, it is expected that the Matuas will vote in large numbers for the BJP. To an extent, this will help the BJP neutralise Muslim unity and support the TMC.
• Also encouraging for the BJP is the fact that its vote share in Barasat has been on the rise since 2014. In 2014, the BJP increased its vote share to 27.75% from just 5.40% in 2009. In 2019, the saffron party’s vote share further increased to 38.57%. It is hoped that it will surpass its existing vote share in the upcoming elections as well.
• The Lakshmir Bhandar scheme now seems to have emerged as the biggest hurdle to the BJP’s prospects in West Bengal, and Barasat is no exception. The party had denied the impact of Mamata Banerjee’s scheme but has now promised to increase the amount given to women under it. BJP leaders have now promised to increase the monthly stipend to Rs 3,000, a clear sign of the impact the scheme has had on the ground.
• The BJP also faces the challenge of not having any strong leaders, other than Suvendu Adhikari, Dilip Ghosh and Sukanta Majumdar, who can speak fluent and engaging Bengali. Adhikari, Ghosh and Majumdar are all important leaders and the BJP cannot confine its campaign to Barasat alone. Most of the leaders who fly in from Delhi do not speak Bengali, putting the BJP at a slight disadvantage.
• The key is that the Modi factor is alive and well in Barasat. Voters are closely watching the Prime Minister’s utterances and taking his words seriously. There is no sense of resentment towards him. In fact, the Modi factor is so pronounced that Mamata Banerjee has to play a defensive battle to ensure that the visible anti-incumbency sentiment towards her and especially the local TMC leaders does not adversely affect the party’s fortunes in this election.

Key Issues

• Sandeshkari: The Sandeshkari issue has been raised by the BJP on a number of occasions, especially in Barasat. During the Prime Minister’s last visit to the constituency in March this year, a bus carrying women affected by Sandeshkari was reportedly stopped on its way to Modi’s rally in Barasat.
• This has become a major issue in the elections and will play a key role as both the areas fall in North 24 Palganj district.
• Moreover, citizens and opposition parties claim that the state government is trying to suppress the issue. The transfer of mining sites in the Barasat ranges shortly after the Sandeshkhali riots in February added fuel to the fire.
• unemployment: In Barasat constituency, which has a large ethnic minority population, the state government has improved village road networks, infrastructure and public distribution systems. It is also providing Swasthya Sathi health cards.
• However, in the absence of any major industries in the area, tailoring, decorating, construction work and jewellery design remain the predominant occupations, much to the dissatisfaction of the residents. Lack of employment opportunities remains a concern. This has also led to large-scale migration to nearby industrial hubs and urban centres such as Barrackpore, Howrah and Kolkata.
• Connectivity: Road connectivity remains a major issue in rural areas of Barasat due to lack of all-weather roads. Narrow footpaths lead deep into villages, hindering connectivity within the region. During monsoon rains wash away roads, hindering connectivity in rural areas.
• Lack of proper health infrastructure forces rural residents to migrate to urban areas and lack of better roads in the area hinders their movement. Though the state government has been trying to provide better road connectivity to the residents in the constituency, there have been more demands from the residents.
• Healthcare and Education: There is a lack of educational facilities that can provide a proper education. The standard of education provided by government schools is poor and private schools are expensive for daily wage earners.
• Moreover, even the hospital facilities in the region lack basic amenities. In case of falling ill, people have to travel to Kolkata for treatment. Though people have expressed their concerns, the state government remains indifferent to the needs of the people.
• Drinking water: Drinking water is a major issue in Barrackpore. Studies have shown that the groundwater in the area is very hard and contains excessive amounts of magnesium. Moreover, the municipality’s water supply is inadequate and does not reach all households. Problems with burst water pipes also lead to water unavailability in many areas.
• Flooding: Flooding is a big problem in Barrackpore. The sewerage system is inadequate and cannot accommodate the growing population. Moreover, the sewerage system is old and crumbling, meaning that even a short rainfall causes the city to flood. This leaves the city paralyzed for days, trapping people inside their homes and creating major problems for the residents. Moreover, garbage dumped on the streets enters people’s homes along with the water, creating unsanitary conditions and breeding grounds for mosquitoes.

Demographics

• Total voters: 17,16,009
• SC Voters: 326,042 (19%)
• ST voters: 25,740 (1.5%)
• Muslims: 463,848 (27%)
• Rural voters: 607,467 (35.4%)
• Urban voters: 1,108,542 (64.6%)
• 2019 voter turnout: 81.1%

Infrastructure Development

• Metro: Yellow Line or Metro Line 4 is a new line covering a distance of 16.6 km. It connects Noapara to Barasat. The metro line is currently under construction.
• Rail infrastructure: A new station building has been constructed at Sanhati Halt station at a cost of Rs 0.4 crore.
• The signalling system at Barasat station has been improved at a cost of Rs 6.90 crore and the slot system at Barasat/NIC cabin has been replaced with PF at a cost of Rs 0.71 crore.
• Moreover, the signalling system at Guma station has been improved with the installation of an electronic interlocking system at a cost of Rs 577 crore. The signalling system at Ashokenagar station has been improved with the installation of a panel interlocking system at a cost of Rs 324 crore.
• The constituency also saw the construction of an additional platform shelter at Barasat at a cost of Rs 0.8 crore and installation of LED lighting fixtures at Barasat at a cost of Rs 0.961 crore.
• Barasat-Barajagri 4 lanes: The construction of a four-lane expressway linking New Town to Barasat via Madhyamgram is underway. Along with four-laning of the Krishnagar-Berhampore section, an allocation of Rs 5,531.2 crore has been approved under the National Highways (Original) Plan.