Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to visit Beijing next week It will formally launch the next phase of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While the first phase, launched in 2015, focused on infrastructure and energy, CPEC-II will see greater agricultural cooperation as well as further development of the 3,000-kilometer network linking China with Pakistan and the Arabian Sea.
Construction on CPEC-II has already begun, with work due to officially commence in June, but conditions along the corridor have not always been smooth, raising frustration in Beijing over CPEC’s progress. question mark About its fate.
The most relevant is Fresh Waves Extremist attacks targeting Chinese people in March Worker, investmentand site The geopolitically significant incident has prompted Beijing to publicly express concern over insecurity in Pakistan. “We urge Pakistan to take effective measures to safeguard the safety and security of Chinese nationals, institutions and projects,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a recent statement. statementIt called on Chinese citizens and businesses to “take special security measures” in Pakistan and to “exercise maximum vigilance against terrorist attacks.” Beijing’s concerns have been expressed more explicitly privately.
Diplomat In meetings this month with Pakistani officials, Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong and Li Chunlin, vice-chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the Chinese government is known to have made it clear that the future of CPEC depends on protecting Chinese people and investments.
“There is understandable anger over CPEC in China. They are not happy with the lack of security nor the lack of progress on CPEC since 2018,” said a Planning Ministry official familiar with the Joint Cooperation Committee meetings.
Government officials further made it clear that the civilian and military leadership had a political motive to boast about the rapid turnaround in CPEC’s fortunes. I want to pin it The latest setback for jailed former prime minister Imran Khan. Under Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government, Islamabad Renegotiate The conditions for CPEC were such that Khan’s advisers publicly called the project “On hold. ”
“What’s interesting is that, among all the nonsense in the United States over the past two years, Plotting for Imran Khan’s resignation“There is no mention of how much China wanted him ousted because of the incompetence of his government,” said a senior politician from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz faction.
But while the civilian and military leadership would like to establish Khan as the root of all evil, at least before world powers, the inability to demonstrate any significant progress on CPEC is preventing the recognition the current administration so desperately seeks.Inevitably, a major cause for concern is the rise of militancy with terror attacks already at a fever pitch. Six-year high That was the case even before the surge in violence over the past four months.
There total Pakistan saw 129 attacks last year, up from 87 in 2022. Of those, 125 took place in the western provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Of the attacks in 2023, 82% were organized under the umbrella of jihadist groups such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, as well as the ethnic separatist group Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). And it appears that jihadists and Balochistan’s separatist militias have found a common enemy: China.
“Whenever there is an attack on Chinese people in Pakistan, it is worth celebrating. But now the Pakistani army is strengthening its own proxy forces for similar attacks in Afghanistan,” said a former TTP spokesman. Ehsanullah Ehsan He told The Diplomat.
In recent years, there has been growing concern among Islamist parties and groups about China’s treatment of Islam. Uighur MuslimsMany see the Pakistani government as complicit in Beijing’s crimes. “The Pakistani government should declare jihad against anyone who marginalizes Muslims anywhere in the world. What’s the point of being the only Islamic nuclear power?” said Ejaz Ashrafi, co-founder of a radical Islamist political party. Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan.
As the TTP’s attacks on Chinese people intensify, Islamabad is taking its own steps to respond. Customary claims The attack originated in Afghanistan. The Pakistani government and the Afghan Taliban government have condemned it. Blaming the other person Allowing our territory to be used for transnational terrorist activities is Pakistan’s Decade-long Quest The goal is to restore the Taliban to power. Currently, with the jihadist groups and the de facto government in Kabul acting independently, the interests of Islamabad and its global investors are simultaneously undermined by those who see the Pakistani state as a common enemy.
“Balochistan’s rugged terrain makes Balochistan militants and the Taliban natural allies. Eliminating these groups in Pakistan will require a thorough military operation. But without transferring the economic benefits of infrastructure projects to local people, it will be difficult to eliminate the militants themselves,” said Lt. Gen. Talat Masood, a former director-general of Pakistan’s Ministry of Defense Production.
While separatist militias may be allied with jihadists, human rights groups and activists have warned against conflating Baloch nationalism with radical Islamism. “Our nationalist movement is purely for the basic human rights of local people and their right to control their own resources. Fighting for the right to rescue missing people or questioning arbitrary killings is not the same as using violence to impose your own agenda,” says a veteran activist. Qadir Baloch He said in a recent interview.
Baluchistan as “OccupiedAs a result, the BLA has not only targeted Chinese nationals, investments, or other supposed symbols of Sino-Pakistani “imperialism”; ConsulateFive Stars Hoteland the Stock Exchange – Someone has been murdered Worker The Baloch movement has been forced to retreat from other parts of Pakistan, especially Punjab. With the militant stance strengthening, it becomes easier to discredit the Baloch movement as it targets everyone who is not Baloch, which further worsens the plight of the Baloch people.
Most significantly, this trend reflects a growing gulf between the Baloch and other ethnic groups, with Pakistan’s Punjabis being viewed as colonial proxies. This is further supported by the extra layer of protection offered to Punjabis. For reference, of 129 terrorist attacks last year, only one took place in Punjab.
But for most locals, the biggest concern is the basic rights that the Baloch people have long been denied. Gwadar Go Hak Door “Give Gwadar its Rights”, the bill, which carries the slogan, points to the marginalisation of Baloch people in the port city, where most of Balochistan’s CPEC projects are located in recent years.
But while many observers see a correlation between the provision of financial benefits to the Baloch people and an improved security situation and therefore the continuation of CPEC, others believe the corridor will continue anyway. “China’s risk appetite is so high that it is unlikely to back down even with increased attacks on its people and interests,” the analyst said. Adnan AamirIt focuses on Chinese interests in Pakistan.
While local insecurity and politics have hindered CPEC’s development,Debt TrapFor Pakistan, It has been warned for a long time They do not want IMF funds to be used to repay loans Pakistan has taken from China.
Islamabad is currently Meeting with the IMF To finalize the next relief package, The fund will continue to support Pakistan I was on the verge of bankruptcy. The IMF’s Vicious Circle It comes with conditions attached, including a realignment of the CPEC agreement.
“We have no choice but to get along with both the US and China. Transparency is essential for any project or agreement. [is a trap or not]”This was pointed out by former foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri, who visited Beijing earlier this month and held a meeting at the Ministry of External Affairs on behalf of his think tank, the Institute for Peace and Connectivity Studies.”
“I did not get the impression that CPEC is being reconsidered in Beijing, but unless we improve the security situation significantly, there will be no investment in Pakistan from either China, the US or Saudi Arabia,” he added.