The 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections, covering 543 constituencies across India, will conclude with the final phase of voting on Saturday, June 1. In the world’s largest democracy, a total of 968 million people are eligible to vote in the 2024 elections, up 6% from 912 million in 2019.
To take power at the centre, a party or coalition needs to win at least 272 of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament. This year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking a third consecutive term, challenged by the opposition Union of India, led by the Indian National Congress party.
The counting of votes for the LS elections will take place under the jurisdiction of the Election Commission on June 4. Prior to that, pollsters and various agencies will release the results of exit polls on the evening of the last day of voting (June 1) and predict the winners and margin of victory.
What are exit polls?
Exit polls are surveys conducted by various organizations immediately after voters leave their polling stations. As part of the survey, voters are asked questions about the candidate or party for which they voted. Exit polls aim to predict the outcome of the election.
These are based on the theory that voters are most likely to tell the truth if they are asked about their candidate choice as they leave the polling station.
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Such surveys are primarily conducted by private companies, with sample sizes and procedures varying depending on the institution conducting them.
History of Exit Polls
The first exit poll in India dates back to 1957, when the Indian Institute of Public Opinion Research conducted a poll for the second Lok Sabha election in the country. In 1996, national broadcaster Durdarshan hired the Centre for Studies of Development Society (CSDS) to conduct exit polls in India. Since then, the practice has become widespread, with several other organisations also becoming involved.
Exit polls: the rules
Exit polls in India are subject to several laws, including Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, which states that “No person shall, during any period notified by the Election Commission, conduct an exit poll or publish or advertise in any print or electronic medium or disseminate in any other manner the results of an exit poll.”
By law, exit polls can only be published within 30 minutes of the close of polls, and as polling on Saturday runs from 7am to 6pm, exit polls can only begin after 6.30pm.
When and where should I look at the exit polls?
The exit polls will be announced by multiple organizations through various channels and social media platforms. Viewers can watch live streaming of the exit polls on Saturday, June 1, from 6:30 pm on all Network 18 channels including CNBCTV18.
Stock Market
The stock market has been volatile throughout the seven phases of the 2024 general election.
According to reports, markets are likely to remain volatile in the run-up to the exit polls, and there is a possibility of seeing sharp fluctuations when the markets open on Monday (June 3rd) when the exit poll results are released.
