If you thought this year was tornado-heavy, you’d be right: At least 850 tornadoes have been confirmed so far, including several major ones, making this one of the most tornado-heavy years in recorded history.
According to preliminary information from the Storm Prediction Center, this is the sixth-most tornadoes in at least the last 30 years. This number could grow as the National Weather Service continues to investigate and verify damage from reported tornadoes in April and May. Tornado reports in April and May are up significantly from previous years. Even the most seasoned storm chasers have been surprised by the tornado activity so far this year.
“Tornadoes were frequent and we had many ‘big’ days,” said Harold Brooks, a senior scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma.
Tentatively, the US has had four days with more than 30 tornadoes rated EF1 or stronger, compared with an average of two per year, Brooks said, making 2024 likely to be in the top 10% of years.
Dozens killed in spring 2024 tornado
Since April 26, 18 deadly tornadoes have hit the United States, killing 36 people. Half of the victims were living in mobile homes.
- May 27: At least 22 people die in Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Texas.
- May 6-8: Multiple tornadoes strike northeastern and central Oklahoma, killing one person and destroying 30-40 homes in Barnsdall, Oklahoma, one of dozens tornadoes that strike the United States.
- April 27-28: Tornadoes ripped through 12 counties in Oklahoma, killing at least four people and injuring 100.
Cook County, Texas, Sheriff Ray Sappington, a 30-year veteran of law enforcement, was overcome with emotion while speaking to reporters after the deadly tornado struck Saturday night.
“It’s still emotional,” Sappington told USA Today on Tuesday. The EF3 tornado traveled 48 miles through three counties and was one of four tornadoes that touched down in the Dallas-Fort Worth National Weather Service area. Seven people were killed and 100 injured with winds of up to 140 mph, according to the weather service.
Sappington said he has been to countless storms, but “when you’re the sheriff and there’s a storm in your county, it’s different.”
“I told the parents of the two children, ages 2 and 5, that their children had died, I took them there to identify them, and I watched over them,” he said. “It’s really hard.”
Why are tornadoes so active this season?
So far, the weather service has put the number of tornadoes at 857 through May 27, based on preliminary reports.
Meteorologists interviewed by USA Today blamed an active jet stream and a series of powerful storms moving from the West Coast across the central U.S. “We’ve seen a lot of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes” in recent weeks, said Peter Mullinax, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center.
AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok added that the storm was able to absorb very warm, moist air over the Gulf of Mexico.
Both meteorologists said the active jet stream is being fueled in part by the weakening of El Niño, a Pacific weather pattern that affects weather in the U.S. and around the world.
Victor Gencini, an associate professor of meteorology and severe weather at Northern Illinois University, said storm activity this year has come in waves, with unusually warm weather early in the year leading to more storms.
A huge heat dome over Central America and the Gulf of Mexico “is a reservoir of gasoline, or in this case moisture,” Gensini said Tuesday in Texas, where more severe weather is expected over the coming week on the West Texas Plateau and eastern New Mexico.
Typically this time of year, a cold front would move through the region and kill storm activity, but it’s difficult for a cold front to push down into a heat dome, he said. “Moisture stays in place, which is one of the basic ingredients you need for tornadoes.”
Looking ahead, Pastelok said the stormy pattern will continue into June, but it won’t be as busy as May.
Are climate change causing more tornadoes?
More research is needed to understand how climate change is affecting tornado activity, Gensini said: “I think it’s safe to say that climate change is having an effect, but whether it’s 10 percent, 5 percent, or 1 percent, I don’t think we know at this point without more work being done to understand how climate change is affecting these events.”
For example, meteorologists say they’re not sure about long-term trends regarding an increase in the number or intensity of tornadoes — rather, tornadoes are occurring at different times and in different places than in the past, making previous confidence less useful in predicting when and where communities will be at risk.
Tornado Warning:Tornadoes are becoming more frequent and deaths are on the rise in the South
Some of the strange phenomena observed this year include:
- Brooks said the number of tornadoes in April was much higher than normal.
- Some areas have been hit by multiple or repeated tornadoes, such as Gilmer County, Georgia, where four tornadoes touched down on May 8 and 9.
- The Dallas-Fort Worth National Weather Service reported four tornadoes in the area over the weekend, with wind gusts of up to 77 mph reported in Dallas and Arlington on Tuesday.
- Gensini said Illinois experienced several strong storms in February, and while this is certainly a storm-prone time of year, the spacing between them was surprising.
“We saw a tornado in a similar area a few weeks ago,” Gensini said of the Illinois tornadoes. The combination of earlier-than-normal tornado activity and record-breaking temperatures could lead some to wonder why this is happening. “To me, this is a good example of the new norm that’s coming with climate change.”
So far, most cities have been spared.
Although this season has been devastating, the worst of the storms have not hit populated areas.
“We’ve seen horrific disasters and loss of life, but thankfully some of the most intense storms so far this year have avoided populated areas,” Gensini said.
What to do if a tornado warning is issued:Stay safe at home, on the road and in the car
Gensini expects the trend to continue, but is concerned about the spread of the virus in densely populated areas.
“From the perspective of someone who regularly monitors these events, it is only a matter of time before a ‘catastrophe’ occurs.”
