After the polls closed, exit polls generally predicted a landslide victory for the ruling party.
Exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Five exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the ruling BJP-led NDA: Republic Bharat- P Marq (359), India News- D-Dyanamics (371), Republic Bharat- Matrize (353-368), TV 5 Telugu (359) and Jan Ki Baat (362-392). Further, the exit polls have predicted the NDA to win in Karnataka and Maharashtra, and win landslide victories in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, while the Left alliance is predicted to suffer a major defeat in Kerala.
The 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections were held in seven phases. The election process began on April 19 with the first phase taking place on April 26. The second phase was then held on May 7, May 13, May 20, May 26 and the final phase on June 1.
When and how are exit polls conducted?
Exit polls are surveys conducted outside polling stations, where voters are asked about their choice immediately after casting their vote. This method aims to take advantage of the freshness of voter’s memory and obtain accurate responses. Unlike pre-election opinion polls, exit polls provide immediate feedback on voters’ preferences after casting their vote. Importantly, these polls are not conducted by government agencies, but by private companies or media organizations.
The data collection process uses structured questionnaires to ensure consistent and analysable information. Over the years, sample sizes for exit polls have increased significantly to reflect advances in survey methodology. While a large sample size is important, the representativeness of the sample is equally important. The Centre for Development and Social Studies (CSDS) emphasises the importance of having a representative sample to make accurate predictions.
As the country awaits the final election results, exit polls are offering a glimpse into the likely outcome and giving India a hint of what to expect on June 4.
A look back at 2019: How accurate were exit polls in predicting Lok Sabha election results?
In 2019, multiple polling companies released exit polls after the final round of voting on May 19. A compilation of eight prominent exit polls, including Axis My India, Ipsos, Today’s Chanakya, VMR, CNX, Polstrat, Cvoter and CSDS, projected the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win 312 seats and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to win 114 seats.
2019 forecast accuracy
The actual result was that the NDA won the Lok Sabha by winning 353 seats, far more than expected, while the UPA only managed to win 91. Of these, the BJP alone won 303 seats, while the Indian National Congress won 52.
Exit polls correctly predicted that the NDA would retain power with over 300 seats, but most underestimated the size of the NDA’s victory. Among the exit polls, India Today-Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya were the most accurate, predicting the NDA to win over 350 seats and the UPA around 93-95 seats.
In contrast, the ABP-CSDS badly miscalculated the results, predicting that the NDA would win 277 seats and the UPA only 130. The poll suggested that the BJP would fall short of a majority and would need the support of its allies, but this prediction turned out to be far from the actual outcome.
