Defense Ministry revamp lets ‘Putin’s chef’ grant wishes in the afterlife

Berlin
CNN
—

The firing of a long-time defense minister is nothing new, but the arrest of five of his senior staff members makes it clear that this is not just a talent-hunting move, especially in President Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

The shock ouster of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu two weeks ago was followed by a wave of arrests of senior Defense Ministry officials and the dissolution of the Cabinet under the guise of an anti-corruption drive.

As interesting as the arrests and personnel changes are, the timing is. After nearly three years of defeat on the Ukrainian battlefield, Russia is finally gaining the upper hand. In recent weeks, it has nearly succeeded in its northern offensive towards Kharkov and has also won victories in the Donbas region in the east.

Ukraine’s severe manpower shortages and dwindling ammunition supplies (exacerbated by the U.S. Congress’ delay in approving a military aid package for months) have also contributed to Russia’s reversal of fortunes.

So the question is, why now to overhaul the ministry responsible for winning the war?

Analysts who spoke to CNN described the Ministry of Defense as one of the most corrupt in the country. Russian state media has exposed staggering amounts of military contracts and publicly criticized senior Defense Ministry officials and their lavish lifestyles. But as one analyst told CNN, we are witnessing a “very complex, polycentric game” with implications to timing and Putin’s raison d’être as he seeks victory over the West.

This upheaval is haunted by the ghost of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner mercenary group who was once known as “Putin’s chef.”

Before his death, he had expressed his hatred for President Shoigu and Russia’s top commander in chief, Valery Gerasimov, in a foul-mouthed denunciation, accusing them and the Russian ministry of corruption and incompetence.

Prigozhin started a revolt in Moscow that was supposed to end with the overthrow of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Instead, he put the president in an awkward position and challenged his authority. Putin responded by calling Prigozhin a traitor and stripping him of his assets. He later died in a mysterious plane crash along with his most senior advisers.

Since then, Putin has tried to keep the Russian Defense Ministry’s arms procurement inefficiencies, the failed invasion of Ukraine and corruption allegations out of the public eye, and to appear not to make a knee-jerk reaction after the uprising that might call into question his authority and power over the Russian people.

Putin was likely waiting for his re-election by the Russian people in March before intervening in the Defense Ministry. The personnel changes came on the heels of a seemingly cordial Victory Day ceremony on May 9, where Putin and Shoigu appeared side-by-side at a ceremony marking Victory Day.

Despite being dismissed as defense minister, Shoigu has been moved to a new role as secretary-general of the Security Council, keeping him within Putin’s sphere of influence.

Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center, told CNN that it doesn’t matter whether Prigozhin was right about official corruption: in Russia, “there is no right or wrong in politics, only profit matters,” she said.

Putin is concerned with maintaining order at home, but more urgently with winning in Ukraine, and the Defense Ministry will play a central role in how that war ends.

Putin appointed civilian economist Andrei Belousov as the new defense minister and signaled that he wants his hugely budgetary ministry to procure weapons more quickly and economically.

Russia’s 2024 budget aims to spend 6% of GDP on defense, the highest in modern Russian history and more than on social welfare, a sign of the country’s transition to a wartime economy.

Corruption in question – Shamarin and Ivanov

“Shoigu’s group is one of the most privileged among the Russian elite – more privileged than, say, some of Putin’s inner circle,” Mikhail Komin, a Russian political scientist and visiting fellow at the Vienna-based European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.

Last Friday, Lt. Gen. Vadim Shamarin, head of Russia’s military communications headquarters, was indicted on charges of “accepting particularly large bribes” of 36 million rubles (about $393,000) from a factory that supplies communications equipment to government ministries and agencies. In return, Shamarin allegedly awarded the company lucrative government contracts.

According to Russian state media, Shamarin has pleaded not guilty.

Russian state media has also helped report on the Kremlin’s crackdown on ministries. After Shamarin’s arrest in May, the state news agency RIA Novosti reported that his wife bought a Mercedes-Benz GLE for 20 million rubles (about $218,000) in 2018. At the time, Shamarin’s income was less than $34,000. Another report said his wife earned 872,000 rubles ($9,740) that year.

The most high-profile of the five arrested officials is Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who was also placed under house arrest in late April on suspicion of accepting bribes.

Ivanov had been the focus of an anti-corruption foundation set up by Alexei Navalny, who was murdered in a Russian prison in February. Mr. Navalny and the foundation exposed the lavish lifestyle enjoyed by Ivanov’s partner – visiting invitation-only jewelry stores, wearing expensive clothes and owning a villa in the chic ski resort of Courchevel, France. They questioned how she could afford such a lifestyle when her husband’s official annual income was $175,000.

Russian state media, citing its own sources, reported that Ivanov maintains his innocence.

Duplication is not tolerated, but corruption remains

For Stanovaya, the reason for replacing people like Ivanov and Shamarin is simple: “Part of Putin’s logic is that he cannot appoint someone to this position (defense minister) from which his predecessor made a huge profit.”

To help clean up the Defense Ministry, Putin appointed former Russian Auditor General Oleg Saveliev as deputy defense minister, who “is aware of the corruption that already exists in the defense sector,” Komin said.

In the wake of the president’s sweeping reforms, rumors are swirling about the position of Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, another target of Prigozhin’s tirades.

“He was [Gerasimov] “Mr. Gerasimov may be dismissed soon,” but the fact that he has managed to avoid dismissal so far “gives him an opportunity to start fighting for his own interests,” Stanovaya added. “Mr. Gerasimov is fighting his enemies and trying to secure his own future,” she said.

Komin agreed that Gerasimov is likely to keep his position for the time being, as Putin has said he does not intend to make any other changes.

Importantly, Komin suggested that Gerasimov is lucky in that, as with Shoigu, there is no position he can publicly replace without completely tarnishing his reputation: “Finding new people is not a big problem. Finding a place for the old ones is much more important.”

In Putin’s Russia, the president is committed to victory in Ukraine, but recent developments suggest his support base may be shifting and he is prepared to act ruthlessly in his quest for victory.