India surprises as PM Modi gets historic third term

1. The BJP, which had set a target of 370 seats and the NDA’s target of over 400, seems to be lagging far behind, disappointed by Uttar Pradesh, which has as many as 80 members in the Lok Sabha. As of 8 pm, the BJP is leading with 241 seats and the NDA with 291. The Indian Union is leading with 232 seats and the Indian National Congress with 100 seats.

2. The BJP’s camp appears to be in disarray in its heartland, Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party and Indian National Congress are leading in 44 of the 80 seats as of 7 p.m. The BJP is leading in 32. The BJP won Uttar Pradesh in a landslide victory in 2014 and retained the state in 2019, and most exit polls had predicted it would win this time around.

3. The BJP is also in a weaker position in two of its other battleground states. In Bengal, its big hope, it was leading in just 11 seats as of 3 p.m., potentially doing worse than in 2019. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress appears to have regained much of its lost ground and is leading in 31 seats.

4. Maharashtra appears to have voiced its condemnation of the political machinations of the Shiv Sena and the Congress Party. Uddhav Thackeray’s faction is ahead of the Shiv Sena with 11 seats to its 5. Congress leader Ajit Pawar’s faction is ahead by just one seat and his uncle Sharad Pawar’s by seven. The BJP and the Congress Party are neck and neck with 12 and 11 seats respectively.

5. As expected, the BJP’s losses have been offset by losses in Odisha, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and, to some extent, Telangana.

6. In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu is on track for a landslide victory with a clear lead in 158 of the 175 constituencies. Sources said the swearing-in ceremony will take place on June 9. In Odisha, the BJP wants to put an end to the 25-year rule of Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal.

7. The election campaign has been intense and protracted, making it difficult to gauge the mood of the electorate in this election. Three exit polls have projected the BJP-led NDA to win more than 400 votes. The rest differ only in the margin of victory for the NDA, but the opposition has rejected these conclusions. Exit polls have always produced mixed results in the country.

8. As in every election, the BJP unleashed a strong electoral machine early and launched a star-studded campaign focused on development, the economy and its vision for the independence centenary, backed by the fulfilment of its promises of abrogating Article 370 and building the Ayodhya Ram temple.

9. The big difference is that the Opposition has gone on the offensive against the ruling alliance, a far cry from the lack of cohesion seen in 2019. Like the Congress vs Trinamool fight in Bengal and the Congress vs AAP fight in Punjab, it had a shaky and partly unstable beginning, but the narrative around constitutional reform and abolishing reservations has had an impact.

10. Voting for the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament was held in seven phases and ended on Saturday. The majority is 272 seats.

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