The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to win any seats in Tamil Nadu in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but it still managed to secure 11.3% of the votes on its own. Does this mean the party has established a foothold as a third force in state politics? Here are two charts that answer this question.
This time, the coalition led by the DMK won all 39 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in the state, but its vote share fell by 5.6 percentage points compared to 2019. The vote share of the alliance led by the All India Dravida Maharaja (AIADMK) fell by 7.7 percentage points between 2019 and 2024. The BJP contested the elections as part of the AIADMK coalition in 2019, so a comparison of its vote shares is not straightforward. (See Figure 1)
How has the BJP performed in the longer term? The party won 11.3% of the votes, its highest in any Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu. Indeed, some of the increase could be due to the BJP contesting more seats this time. The last time the BJP contested more than 23 seats in this election was in 1996, when it fielded candidates in 37 municipal constituencies. The only times the party contested double-digit seats in Tamil Nadu were in the 1991 Lok Sabha election and in 2009, when it contested 18 municipal constituencies. Is contesting more seats the only reason for the BJP’s increased vote share? Not necessarily.
The BJP’s contested vote share in 2024 is 19.6%, higher than in most previous elections. The only years in which the BJP’s contested vote share was higher were when it contested between 5 and 9 seats, which could be a result of alliances with larger parties or remaining on a relatively strong base in the state. The BJP’s growing contested vote share in this election, in which it is contesting a majority of the seats in the state, suggests that at least part of the BJP’s growth in the state is due to its growing popularity. Except for 2014, the BJP was in alliance with either the DMK or the AIADMK in all five elections in which its contested vote share was higher than in 2024 (1998, 1999, 2004, 2014, and 2019). Even in 2014, the BJP contested only nine PC seats. (See Figure 2)
At whose expense has the BJP achieved these gains?
This question is not easy to answer. Even if a party contests a PC, its vote share may not be entirely its own if it has formed an alliance. However, assuming that the BJP was the main supporter of the camp in 2024, a PC-level analysis offers some insights. Of the 23 PCs in which the BJP contested, the DMK alliance lost its vote share in 21 PCs compared to 2019, the AIADMK alliance in 19, and parties other than the DMK/AIADMK/BJP in 18. As these figures show, all three groups, the DMK group, the AIADMK group, and parties not aligned with the DMK group or the BJP, lost their vote share in most of the PCs in which the BJP contested.
Who were the biggest losers in each PC? The AIADMK coalition was the biggest loser in 11 PCs, the DMK coalition was the biggest loser in 6 PCs, and the non-aligned parties were the biggest losers in the remaining 6 PCs. Indeed, the BJP contested elections in 3 of the 23 PCs (Kanniyakumari, Coimbatore, and Sivaganga) in 2019 as part of the AIADMK coalition. The AIADMK coalition has not matched the BJP’s 2019 vote share in any of the three 2024 PCs, and is lagging far behind the BJP in Kanniyakumari and Coimbatore. This indicates a major upswing in support for the BJP at least in the latter two PCs. That the AIADMK group also lost more vote share in other PCs than the DMK group suggests that the BJP is gaining more votes than other parties in the state at the expense of the AIADMK. This seems broadly consistent with the perceived trend of the BJP leading the attack on the DMK.
The only question that remains is whether the BJP can maintain this momentum when the state assembly elections are held in 2026. After all, the AIADMK remains the larger opposition party than the BJP in the state, meaning its claim of being the main challenger to the DMK-led government will carry more weight.
