China’s export growth accelerated in May, helped by surging demand from Southeast Asia and a weakening base effect amid intensifying trade tensions, while its trade surplus widened from April.
Exports rose 7.6 percent in May from a year earlier to $302.4 billion, customs data released on Friday showed, marking the highest monthly figure since September and giving Beijing a brighter path to meet its annual growth target.
“Exports are likely to remain strong in the coming months despite rising Western tariffs,” analysts at Capital Economics said.
“We expect exports to remain strong in the coming months, supported by a weakening real effective exchange rate. Foreign tariffs are unlikely to immediately threaten exports. Rather, they may pick up slightly as companies accelerate shipments to get ahead of the tariffs. Even if tariffs take effect, the impact could be mitigated by changes in trade routes and exchange rate adjustments.”
Meanwhile in other regions, imports rose 1.8% year-on-year, up from an 8.4% increase in April.
“Volume-wise, imports appear to be broadly stable, but we expect them to pick up in the coming months. A new wave of fiscal support – government bond issuance surged to a seven-month high in May – is likely to boost construction activity and demand for industrial goods,” analysts at Capital Economics added.
China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) surged by a strong 22.5% in May, the highest monthly growth since March 2023.
Shipments to the United States also recorded their first year-on-year increase in three months, following a 3.6% increase in May.
Meanwhile, exports to Russia fell 1.96% year-on-year in May, following a double-digit decline in April.
Export data for May showed that the value of automobile shipments increased 16.63% from the same month last year, while ship exports jumped 57.1%.
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US proposes new tariffs on China as trade war escalates
US proposes new tariffs on China as trade war escalates
Exports of integrated circuits also rose 28.47 percent in value terms last month from a year earlier, while shipments of high-tech products increased 8.1 percent.
Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus fell to $82.6 billion in May from $72.4 billion in April.
“A more pronounced recovery in global trade is expected in the second half of 2024, particularly once the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank start to lower their policy interest rates,” the UN said.
