Summary and key points: President Biden declared that the United States would defend Taiwan if China attacked it, marking a shift away from strategic ambiguity.
– A conflict would involve a massive missile attack by China on Taiwan, countered by a US Navy fleet of aircraft carriers and stealth planes.
– The defense of Guam is crucial due to its strategic location. The US could also launch a cyber attack against China.
– A Chinese blockade and amphibious assault would continue. Both sides would likely suffer heavy naval losses, highlighting the need for a military-diplomatic strategy to manage the conflict.
US Military Strategy to Defend Taiwan from China
The United States has long maintained strategic ambiguity about what it would do if China attacked Taiwan, and now President Joe Biden has brought new attention to the issue after many years.
Biden said in an interview with 60 Minutes on September 18, 2022 that the United States would certainly fight to defend Taiwan from China. This follows his remarks in Tokyo in May 2021, in which Biden said the United States would fight to defend Taiwan. Currently, the United States supplies weapons to Taiwan, but the United States also recognizes Beijing’s “One China” policy.
If Taiwan were attacked, what would the United States do militarily?
From a war of words to a war of missiles
Taiwan lies about 110 miles off the coast of mainland China. Beijing claims the island as its own. President Xi Jinping believes complete unification is inevitable and has not ruled out the use of force to uphold the “one China” policy. Any fighting involving the United States would be bloody, with widespread casualties and destruction on both sides.
If war with Taiwan broke out, China would launch a shock-and-awe missile attack on military targets on Taiwan, with hundreds of missiles fired from shore, ships and aircraft exploding over Taiwan.
The U.S. Navy has deployed aircraft carrier battle groups to the area, with supercarriers escorted by destroyers, frigates and cruisers and backed up by submarines. The Navy will try to stay out of range of Chinese anti-ship missiles while firing over-the-horizon missiles at ships or aircraft attacking Taiwan.
The US will also be flying stealth fighters such as the F-35. China will be responding with fighters such as the J-20, which have radar-evading features. There will be a missile exchange between the two countries, and the navy will be using the Aegis combat system to shoot down enemy missiles.
Defend Guam at all costs
Guam could also be subject to attack by China. As the closest U.S. territory to China, Guam is one of the most strategic islands in East Asia. Without occupying Guam, Taiwan would be difficult to defend. China has H-6 bombers capable of reaching Guam and launching cruise and ballistic missiles, including hypersonic weapons. Guam currently uses the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense long-range missile defense system. An ongoing missile defense modernization effort will strengthen Guam’s air defense capabilities, but the upgrade is not expected to be completed until 2026.
The United States could launch cyberattacks against China to disable its radar and sensor systems and disrupt its missile targeting and guidance systems, and China would likely conduct its own cyber operations against Taiwan.
Preparing for landing
Before sending troops to Taiwan, China would likely implement a blockade of Taiwan to prevent its allies from shipping arms to the island. It would also patrol no-fly and no-ship zones in the region to strengthen its control of the air and sea. Finally, China would deploy submarines near Taiwan and launch land-attack cruise missiles toward Taiwan. A Chinese amphibious attack would then be launched.
China can attack U.S. aircraft carriers with missiles in a variety of ways from land, sea, and air. This means the U.S. must plan for one of its aircraft carriers to be damaged or destroyed. While it seems unthinkable, it is time for the U.S. Navy to recognize that this could happen. If that were to happen, the Navy would rely on other aircraft carriers to fill the gap. Meanwhile, China would destroy or damage one U.S. aircraft carrier and continue with its amphibious attack on Taiwan.
This is a frightening scenario for the United States, but one that is possible on both sides: The United States could sink a Chinese aircraft carrier and some of its support ships, which could either strengthen China’s resolve or deter it, creating an opportunity for diplomacy.
What to do in Taiwan?
The US has no good options to defend Taiwan. Every scenario in which China attacks results in losses for the US Navy. The best hope is that military-to-military communication can mitigate the damage, creating room for diplomacy and a ceasefire. Biden may want to reconsider defending Taiwan without first establishing a clear military option. The Pentagon needs to ensure that the White House understands the price that will be paid to defend Taiwan.
About the Author
Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of “Man, Machine, Data: Trends in the Future of Warfare.” He is an emerging threats expert and a former U.S. Army Infantry Officer. You can follow him on Twitter. translation:He holds a PhD in Political Science and Foreign Policy/International Relations.
All images are Creative Commons and Shutterstock.
