Siri Ars Rustad
New data shows number of armed conflicts at record high
Last year saw the highest number of conflicts between nations since 1946. Moreover, a new analysis of conflict trends shows that the past three years were the most violent in the past 30 years.
2023 was one of the most violent years since the end of the Cold War, with a record number of 59 conflicts recorded. However, it wasn’t all bad news, as the number of countries experiencing conflict fell from 39 to 34.
“Global violence is at its highest level since the end of the Cold War. The figures show that conflict situations are becoming increasingly complex and that more parties to conflict are operating within the same country,” said Siri Aas Rustad, research professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and lead author of the report. PRIO Conflict Trends: Global Overview report.
The report analyses global trends in conflict from 1946 to 2023, providing policymakers and practitioners with a deeper understanding of the context in which they operate. The paper uses data collected annually by the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme at Uppsala University.
“The increase in inter-state conflict is due in part to the expansion of the Islamic State into Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and the increasing involvement of non-state actors such as Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen in conflicts,” Professor Rustad said. “These developments make it increasingly difficult for actors such as aid agencies and civil society organisations to gain control of conflict situations and improve the lives of ordinary people.”
The data also shows that while battle deaths fell last year, the past three years were the highest in conflict-related deaths in the past 30 years. The dramatic increase in battle deaths was driven by three conflicts: the civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the bombing of Gaza. Overall, there have been 122,000 battle deaths in 2023, including more than 71,000 deaths in Ukraine and almost 23,000 deaths in Gaza in less than three months in 2023.
Africa had the most interstate conflicts per year (28), followed by Asia (17), the Middle East (10), Europe (3) and the Americas (1). The number of conflicts in Africa has nearly doubled from 15 in 2013 to 10 years ago. Over the past three years, more than 330,000 people have been killed in fighting in Africa.
The continuing decline in the number of conflicts in the Middle East has been reversed, increasing from 8 to 10 from 2022 to 2023. In 2022, there were just over 5,000 battle-related deaths in the Middle East, the lowest since 2011. However, in 2023, the number increased to almost 26,000. Of these, it is notable that about 23,000 were recorded in Israel and Palestine. This indicates that violence in the Middle East continues, but is driven by different conflicts than before.
“The figures for the Middle East offer hope that extreme violence and complex conflicts like those in Syria may decline. On the other hand, it is an ongoing concern that extremely violent conflicts are occurring more frequently than before,” Professor Rustad said.
For more information or to schedule an interview, please contact:
- Contact: Michelle Delaney, Communications Director, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) | michelle@prio.org | Mobile 0047 941 65 579.
- Click here to download the full PRIO textPorts, conflict trends: a global overview, 1946-2023.
- Uppsala University’s statistics for 2023 will be published in the July issue of the Journal of Peace Research.
