It’s a gamble that could command a high price.
Already French stock prices have fallen and the mayor of Paris has described the dissolution of parliament ahead of the Olympics as “deeply worrying.” But it is not just the French who have woken up to the new political reality.
The morning after the five-yearly European Parliament elections, populist nationalists and anti-immigration parties across Europe A chaotic night. They lost. The EU had a firm foothold in long-illiberal countries like Hungary and Poland, but its strength in Europe’s heartlands — France, Germany and Italy — has unsettled the EU’s political establishment, signaling a possible shift to the right five months before the U.S. election.
Get caught up in
Summarised stories to keep you up to date
The losers? The Greens, who face a backlash from voters weary of the cost of tackling climate change, and the centrist parties that hold power at Europe’s heartland.
election The results highlight the remarkable transformation of Europe’s far right, once dismissed as skinheads and neo-Nazis, into a politically acceptable entity that is connecting with an ever-growing number of voters. While pro-European parties are still expected to win a majority of seats in the European Parliament, far-right parties also performed well, winning the most seats in France and Italy and coming second in Germany, shifting the EU’s center of gravity to the right.
The outcome is a particular blow to Macron, perhaps the region’s strongest advocate of accelerating aid to Ukraine, while Germany’s center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a potential confrontation with an empowered far-right on a host of issues, including whether to ease environmental policies.
The region’s most powerful leader today is Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. His party won a huge number of votes compared to 2019, even more than it did when he took power in 2022. With political support for his biggest rival, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini of the far-right League, collapsing, Meloni has become Italy’s most powerful prime minister since his leader, playboy billionaire Silvio Berlusconi. With centrist leaders in France and Germany weakening, he could have more influence in European debates over illegal immigration and the region’s Green Deal’s role in tackling climate change.
“Her strength is increased by the weakness of others,” said Nicola Procaccini, a senior member of the European Parliament from Melon’s Italian Brothers party.
The night’s most obvious winner was Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old protégé of Ms. Le Pen whose National Rally party was expected to win 31.5 percent of the vote, more than double Macron’s coalition. He could become prime minister if voters decide to back his party in France’s elections scheduled for June 30 and July 7.
“Jordan Bardella is our candidate for prime minister,” Sebastien Chenut told France’s RTL radio.
Like Le Pen, Mr. Bardella is a eurosceptic nationalist with a hard line on immigration. But like other far-right figures in Portugal and Poland, Mr. Bardella, who has a background in hosting political events in Paris nightclubs, has sought to redefine what it means to be a politician by cultivating a fun, youthful, social media-focused image.
Le Pen’s popularity has soared in recent years, especially among young people, helping to move her movement into the political mainstream.
Mujtaba Rahman, Europe managing director at consultancy Eurasia Group, said Macron is trying to get ahead of this challenge by forcing the country to make a “tough choice” between the status quo and a far-right prime minister. Macron may use the same warning to mobilize more voters in the national elections, hoping that structural differences in elections (high turnout, two rounds of voting) will work in his favor.
Le Pen faces a tall hurdle: To get Macron to appoint Bardella, her party would need to win a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, either on its own or in a coalition, up from its current 88. But even if it fails to achieve that, a major gain for the far-right could cause further political paralysis in parliament and thwart Macon’s policies.
“Is this a smart calculation or a reckless gamble? Probably both,” Rahman said. Even if Macron avoids the worst-case scenario, a strong showing by Le Pen could send him into “even more uncontrollable chaos,” and “he’ll still have to deal with a big storm.”
The possibility that Le Pen will cast a shadow over France not only this summer but until the 2027 presidential election could increase skepticism about Macron’s pledges at the European level, such as aid for Ukraine and increasing the EU budget.
“I think Le Pen has had a far-reaching impact on the credibility of the promises that Macron has been making for quite some time, and now that will play out in a much clearer way,” Rahman said.
The first round of voting on June 30 comes just three days after the European Council meeting where EU leaders will shape their work for the next few years. Less than two weeks after the second round, on July 7, European leaders will meet in London to discuss aid for Ukraine. And on July 26, all eyes will be on the French capital as the Paris Olympics open.
“It’s a bit strange that at this time when there are so many important international deadlines, France is entering a phase of political paralysis where there are elections and nothing can be decided,” said Michel Duclos, an expert at the Institut Montaigne think tank and a former French diplomat.
His success or failure will depend on whether he can mobilize voters with arguments about the nationalist threat and Europe’s survival – arguments that were not accepted in Sunday night’s election.
Ukraine may be a more effective line of attack: Allegations of inappropriate ties with Moscow have dogged the Rally National and its officials for years and likely contributed to Marine Le Pen’s defeat in the second round of the 2022 presidential election.
In one memorable moment from that campaign, Mr. Macron told Ms. Le Pen in a televised debate: “When you talk about Russia, you are talking to your banker,” referring to a loan of about $10 million that her party (formerly called the National Front) received in 2014 from a Czech-Russian bank that has since closed. Mr. Bardera has tried to move past that, announcing last year that his party had repaid the loan in full, but voters may ask him to clarify his position.
While Bardella has condemned Russian aggression, he has said he does not see Russia as an enemy. MEPs known for their close ties to Moscow, such as Thierry Mariani, remain on the National Coalition list.
In Italy, Mr Meloni’s party performed well, cementing its position as a rising conservative star and potential kingmaker in EU negotiations.
In Germany, the far-right came in second despite a series of recent scandals: before the vote, the AfD’s leading candidate, Maximilian Kurler, was banned from campaigning after suggesting that not all Nazi SS officers should be considered criminals.
The Green Party, which currently occupies key government posts such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, has lost support by more than eight percentage points compared to the 2019 European Parliament elections.
Ahead of next year’s general elections, Scholz will be forced to tackle the issue of immigration. He will have to strike a balance between speaking to disenfranchised voters without leaning towards populist rhetoric. Scholz and his coalition partners will also struggle to sell climate protection policies and the energy transition during the remainder of his term. State elections this fall in three AfD strongholds in eastern Germany could also strengthen the far-right’s national presence. A strong AfD would make coalition building almost impossible in some German states, as all other parties have rejected cooperation with the far-right. This complex situation could play out again, albeit to a lesser extent, after next fall’s general elections.
Mr. Faiola reported from Rome and Mr. Timsit reported from Paris.
