The ruling BJP-led NDA and the opposition Indian Union have embarked on a fresh battle, especially in Maharashtra and Haryana, after the Rajya Sabha (RS) secretariat notified vacancies in 10 Lok Sabha seats in seven states which were elected to the Lok Sabha in the recent general elections.
However, BJP candidates are likely to win vacant Senate seats in five states.
The Election Commission is yet to announce the dates for the Rajya Sabha elections for these 10 seats. Of these 10 seats, seven are held by the BJP, two by the Indian National Congress and one by the RJD. Both the Indian National Congress and the RJD are major constituent parties of the Indian Bloc.
Of the BJP’s Rajya Sabha members elected to the Lower House, three are Union ministers – Sarbananda Sonowal (Assam), Jyotiraditya Scindia (Madhya Pradesh) and Piyush Goyal (Maharashtra).
Of the vacant seats, two each are in Assam, Bihar and Maharashtra, and one each in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tripura.
The BJP has enough seats in the relevant legislative assemblies to retain its Rajya Sabha seat in Assam and one seat each in Tripura, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
In Bihar, both the BJP and RJD are likely to win one seat each as both the NDA and INDIA alliance parties have sufficient numbers in the state assembly.
However, the BJP is likely to face a tough fight in the elections to vacant seats in Maharashtra and Haryana.
Haryana’s current strength in the 90-seat assembly has fallen to 87. The BJP has 41 seats, while the Indian National Congress has 29, with Mullana MP Varun Chaudhary elected to the Lok Sabha from Ambala. Dushyant Chautala’s Jawaharlal Nasional Party, which broke with the BJP just before the Lok Sabha elections, has 10 seats, five independents and one each from the Indian National Congress (INLD) and Haryana People’s Party (HLP). Rakesh Daurtabad, an independent from Badshahpur, died last month. Another independent, Ranjit Singh, resigned from the assembly to join the BJP and contested in the Lok Sabha elections from Hisar, but lost to Jai Prakash of the Indian National Congress.
As a result, in Haryana, with the support of independent MP Nayan Pal Rawat and Haryana MP Gopal Kanda, the BJP’s tally in seats will be 43.
The remaining 44 state assembly members appear to be in the opposition camp, at least on paper, including 29 from the BJP and 10 from the Janata Party. Of the four remaining independents, Somvir Sanghwan from Dadri, Randhir Singh Goren from Pundri and Dharampal Gondar from Nilokheri have declared their support for the BJP. Another independent from Meham, Balraj Kundu, is supporting neither the BJP nor the BJP. Abhay Chautala of the Bharatiya Janata Party has also not declared his support for any party so far.
The BJP hopes it can defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party in Haryana if it can get the support of all opposition lawmakers, but this seems unlikely.
At least six JJP legislators are upset with Dushyant, including two of them, Jogiram Sihag and Ram Niwas Surjakhela, who have declared their support for the BJP. The JJP has written to its president Gian Chand Gupta, seeking action against the two legislators under the No Defection Act.
So unless the entire opposition unites, the Congress may not be able to muster the number of seats needed to win the only vacant Senate seat in Haryana.
In the Haryana Assembly elections held in June 2022, the Congress Party won enough seats to win, but its then candidate Ajay Maken failed to win due to cross-voting.
The BJP currently claims to have the support of 45 state legislators (41 BJP, 1 Independent, 1 HLP and 2 JJP). However, the Indian National Congress has said that JJP state legislators cannot toe the party line, a claim denied by JJP “rebel” state legislators who have pledged their support to the BJP.
In Maharashtra, too, it is likely to be a tough battle for the BJP as the Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Ajit Pawar, are at odds over the BJP’s failure to secure a ministerial post in the new NDA government at the Centre.
The Shiv Sena, which won seven seats in the Lower House of the Rajya Sabha, is unhappy that other NDA allies with fewer seats won ministerial posts: LJP(RV) five, JD(S) two and HAM(S one. The NCP was offered ministerial posts but did not accept as the party wanted ministerial posts. The Shiv Sena won one ministerial post (independent charge).
The Indian camp in Maharashtra comprises the Indian National Congress, Sharad Pawar’s faction of the NCP (SP) and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT).
Congress leaders who won in the Lok Sabha elections to fill the two vacant Upper House seats include KC Venugopal (Rajasthan) and Deepender Hooda (Haryana).
The BJP will easily win the Assembly seat in Rajasthan as it has an absolute majority in the state assembly.
