Washington
CNN
—
President Joe Biden is leading the world’s richest democracy in sending a reinforced message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the West will not abandon Ukraine, even as a political shock casts doubt on its commitment.
Biden will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Italy on the sidelines of the G7 summit on Thursday, seeking to personally reinforce the commitment he made last week on the battlefields of Normandy, where fascism began to crumble 80 years ago.
“We’re not going away, because if we go away, Ukraine will be conquered, and it won’t be over,” Biden said, surrounded by the last surviving U.S. veterans of the Normandy landings and the graves of more than 9,000 comrades who died in battle. “Ukraine’s neighbors will be threatened. All of Europe will be threatened. … Dictators around the world are watching what happens in Ukraine.”
But Biden’s efforts will face growing concerns in Europe that he is merely an interregnum between Donald Trump’s presidencies, whose term ends in 2021 shattered decades of certainty that the United States would be a stabilizing force in transatlantic affairs and would always keep Europe safe. And the “world dictators” Biden named will no doubt be watching closely as Trump demonstrates his control over the GOP on Thursday, meeting with Republican representatives and senators on Capitol Hill. The show of authority comes two weeks after Trump became the first former president to be convicted of a crime and just under five months before the presumptive GOP nominee asks voters to return him to the White House.
01:31 – Source: CNN
Biden warns about democracy in speech marking 80th anniversary of Normandy landings
Biden’s emotional, political and diplomatic investment in Ukraine is unquestionable and will be a cornerstone of his presidential legacy, but uncertainty surrounding the West’s long-term commitment to the country lingers, fueled by shifting political currents on both sides of the Atlantic and bound to make Zelensky uneasy.
In the United States, Trump, who despises Ukraine, praises Putin and has little interest in European security given his constant attacks on NATO, may be less than five months away from regaining the presidency. The huge gains made by far-right parties in last weekend’s European Parliament elections, especially in the big powers of France and Germany, could complicate future EU support for Ukraine. And Putin’s willingness to throw thousands of Russian lives into a front-line meat grinder without political repercussions in a country where he has purged his political opponents, means there is always the possibility that the West will tire of the conflict before him.
But the wave of new efforts by the U.S. and its allies appears to be an attempt to protect Ukraine’s Western lifeline from Trump and move Kiev closer to the Western economic and defense system in case Biden and the shaky G7 leaders who formed the first wave of aid for Ukraine after the Russian invasion are swept away. But no U.S. president can truly bind his successor to a course of action. And the struggle to get Congress to approve the latest $60 billion U.S. aid package for Kiev underscores how shaky U.S. politics mean future generous U.S. aid is no guarantee, even if Biden wins in November.
Still, Western countries’ latest plans to support Ukraine are sending a strong message of intent.
— Biden’s return on Wednesday, just three days after leaving Europe, symbolizes his role as the Western alliance’s most active leader since President George H. W. Bush. The president’s schedule is a reliable barometer of White House priorities and is closely watched by U.S. allies and adversaries alike.
— While Putin departs for Italy, the administration announces new sanctions against more than 300 individuals and entities, intended to cripple the parallel economies (including the rich China route) that the Kremlin has built to circumvent previous U.S. sanctions. The sanctions target foreign financial companies that support Putin’s war effort and restrict Russian access to U.S. software and information technology. “Russia today has become a war economy,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in announcing the measures intended to raise the costs of the conflict. “Every day Russia continues to mortgage its future in order to continue its unjust war against Ukraine.”
— Biden and Zelensky are expected to sign a bilateral security agreement that commits the U.S. to training the Ukrainian military for 10 years and expanding cooperation in weapons and equipment production. “We want to show that the United States supports the Ukrainian people, stands with them, and will continue to address their security needs not just tomorrow but into the future,” Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters aboard Air Force One. Still, it would not be difficult for a Trump presidency to break this “executive agreement.”
U.S. officials are also optimistic that the G7 summit – which includes the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada – will approve months of negotiations on a $50 billion economic aid package to repair Ukraine’s infrastructure, paid for with interest on frozen Russian assets.
—These measures are expected to be strengthened by a new NATO package institutionalizing military assistance to Ukraine, to be announced at a NATO summit in Washington this summer, but the move comes a long way from fulfilling Zelenskiy’s call for a clear timeline for joining the Western alliance.
These are substantial and credible demonstrations of political, economic and political support for Ukraine. But they come at a fragile time for the country, when Ukraine’s survival is by no means certain.
For example, the latest battlefield assessment from the Hudson Institute noted “alarming trends” of gradual buildups on multiple fronts, including in eastern and northeastern Ukraine.
The report said relentless Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have destroyed half of Kiev’s power production capacity, underscoring why as of mid-June concerns are already growing about the plight of Ukrainian civilians in the coming winter, as Russia is expected to double down on past efforts to weaponize the annual cold.
Russia’s success in rebuilding its military after shocking damage on the road to Kiev two years ago has led some European officials to warn of a growing threat to Europe’s territorial integrity, while the arrival of a Cold War-reminiscent Russian flotilla in Cuba highlights growing tensions between the United States and Russia.
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warned in a Hudson Institute report this month that it would be a mistake to underestimate the power of the Russian military, following the disastrous defeat of the Kremlin’s expeditionary forces early in the war and Western ridicule for their poor leadership and tactics.
“The Russian character, the Russian military is structured to keep going regardless of losses, keep going through bad command decisions,” Clark said. “Don’t underestimate them. Technologically, they’re pretty smart. They’ve got China behind them, they’ve got Iran and the sanctions breakers behind them.”
Ukraine’s heroic resistance to a Russian invasion in early 2022 was an inspiring moment, but more than two years later the blue and yellow flags that once flew across Western cities look tattered and faded.
The extraordinary political instability in developed countries has forced many foreign leaders to prioritize their own countries’ concerns, even as they maintain their support for Kiev. The new war following Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel has diverted attention from the Ukrainian conflict, which simultaneously recalls the horrors of the trench warfare of World War I and the terrifying new era of warfare, with swarms of drones bringing death to soldiers in the trenches.
The exhausted President Zelensky’s interactions with the West were sometimes laced with irritation.
The Ukrainian president made no secret of his frustration at how long it took to roll out the latest U.S. aid package — a delay Biden apologized for when he met with Zelenskiy at the Normandy landings — and also expressed irritation that world leaders did not take up his invitation to meet in Switzerland for a summit after the G7, which was meant to unite the world behind his vision of what a final peace deal to end the war would look like.
Biden will not attend as he is taking a multi-day campaign break to visit Europe; Vice President Kamala Harris will attend instead, along with Sullivan.
Not surprisingly, Zelensky has always chafed at self-imposed limits on Western support for his war effort, a sign of Biden’s overarching objective of avoiding a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. His critics have long accused him of only offering Ukraine the tools to avoid losing the war, refusing to give it the tools to win it. But Biden recently authorized the use of limited types of U.S. weapons under limited circumstances in Ukrainian military operations on Russian territory.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby insisted Biden was determined to “take bold steps to show those of us who support Ukraine’s fight for freedom that time is not on our side and that Putin will not outlast us.”
But with rising political tensions in the West, elections taking on added importance, an ideological divide between globalists and isolationists, and Russia’s leadership relentless refusal to change course at any cost, the West will likely be left with questions about its staying power, no matter how long the war lasts.
