Two weeks ago, Donald Trump made history by being convicted of 34 felony counts, becoming the first former president to suffer such a fate. And just a few days ago, President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden became the first child of a sitting president to be indicted on drug and firearms charges. Both Trump and Biden Jr. are awaiting sentencing, which is expected to be handed down within the next few weeks.
The contrasts could not be starker, yet the temptation remains to draw inferences to the November 2024 election. Trump was convicted of paying $130,000 in hush money to an adult actress with whom he had an alleged affair that surfaced during his 2016 campaign. Hunter Biden’s hush money was related to lying to authorities during his gun procurement process and concealing that he was a drug addict.
Republicans, especially the far-right, have long been attacking Hunter Biden, wanting to link him to some of the business deals his son may have had when his father was vice president in Barack Obama’s administration. In fact, the impeachment efforts against President Biden have Hunter Biden involved, but to date, very little has come to light and the impeachment process itself seems to be losing steam. But in Biden Jr.’s Delaware courtroom drama, the right-wing crowd was not making the father-son connection. Even if, in a different context, former President Trump claimed that President Biden sometimes uses drugs to get high, and apparently even suggested at one point that one of the prerequisites for the presidential debates should be that President Biden should be tested, it was something so outrageous that it did not merit a serious response from the White House.
Not an influencing factor
The initial signs are that neither the Hunter Biden trial nor the conviction seem to have had an impact on voters’ minds. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that two-thirds of registered voters said they had heard “a lot” about Biden Jr.’s trial, but 80 percent said it had no impact on their likelihood of voting for President Biden on November 5. As for Trump’s hush money conviction, only 61 percent said it would not affect their voting decision.
Importantly, independent voters, whom both President Trump and President Biden are actively trying to woo, maintain more or less mainstream opinions. Four in five say Biden Jr.’s conviction would not affect their vote, with 60% feeling the same about President Trump’s conviction. Turning to registered voters, 16% say Biden Jr.’s conviction would make them less likely to vote for President Biden, with only 4% claiming they would be more likely to do so. Regarding President Trump’s conviction in Manhattan, 24% of registered voters said they would be less likely to vote for the former president, with 14% choosing the more likely option.
Republican leaders in Congress have urged rank-and-file lawmakers not to link Hunter Biden’s ordeal with President Biden’s, knowing full well that it could backfire. Some have suggested that this link might actually garner sympathy, given the number of families torn apart by drug-related violence, with or without firearms. If the Biden family had supported Hunter, if many of them had testified in court, and if President Biden had hugged his son at the Delaware airport after the verdict, that would have been something Americans could relate to. Or, as President Biden said, “I’m the president, but I’m also a father.”
Judging by the charges, Hunter Biden could face 25 years in prison. And given the nature of the crime and that it’s a first conviction, it may not even be an actual prison sentence. But the larger message is not lost. Besides staying away from courtroom drama and spectacle, President Biden has made one thing clear: there will be no pardons. And even if there was a possibility of a commutation, it would mean something.
The author is a veteran journalist who has reported on North America and the United Nations from Washington, DC.
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