China, Russia and North Korea may begin talks on whether to allow ships to navigate the Tumen River from their border areas into the Sea of Japan, a move that could have huge implications for Tokyo’s security.
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The important waterway, the Tumen River, flows east along the border between China and North Korea and touches Russia before emptying into the Sea of Japan.
Currently, Chinese ships can only navigate the river as far inland as Fangchuan village in eastern Jilin province – from there they need permission from Russia and North Korea to go any further, a 15km stretch where a seven-metre-high Soviet-era bridge blocks the passage of larger ships.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a joint statement after their summit in May revealing plans to hold “constructive dialogue” with North Korea over navigation on the Tumen River.
“The two sides will engage in constructive dialogue with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea regarding the navigation of Chinese vessels from the lower reaches of the Tumen River to the sea,” the statement said.
The two leaders did not elaborate further, but the statement highlighted the geographic reality that Russia and North Korea share a border and China’s access to the Sea of Japan is limited.
The report did not specify a timeline for the talks but said they were due to begin “shortly.”
Historically, the area around the Tumen River was under Chinese control until it was occupied by the Russian Empire in the 1860s. China has consistently claimed navigation rights on the Tumen River as far as the Sea of Japan and has proposed establishing a special economic zone on the river’s banks to promote development in the area.
Russia was initially reluctant to go along with the proposal, concerned about growing Chinese influence in northeast Asia, but sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine have increased Moscow’s economic reliance on Beijing.
The sanctions have also strengthened ties between Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), which supplies Russia with artillery shells and other weaponry.
And a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea this month is expected to deepen military ties, but Western officials say the move would violate U.N. Security Council resolutions.
Meanwhile, Zhao Leji, a top Communist Party official in China, met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang in April, signalling a possible improvement in relations, which has led North Korea to be open to negotiations over the Tumen River.
Shashank S. Patel, a geopolitical analyst who closely monitors developments in East Asia, told Eurasian Times that “Russia’s adoption of the ‘Turn East’ policy in 2022 and President Putin’s official visit to China in 2024 confirm Tumen’s opening up to China in a new era of a ‘no-holds-barred’ strategic partnership between the two countries.”
Patel explained, “China has been eyeing access to the blue waters of the Sea of Japan via the Tumen River since the last century with proposals for special economic zones that could revive China’s northeastern economy. Developing the Tumen River estuary (dredging, widening, riverbank facilities) will not only help develop the economies of China’s landlocked provinces of Jilin and Yanbian, but will also strengthen the security environment for the neighbouring ports of Rajin in North Korea and Zarubino in Russia.”
“This is a concrete implementation of the Fangchuan Plan, which is based on the long-forgotten multilateral Tuman River Economic Development Area (TREDA) initiative once abandoned by the UNDP. As the Tuman River is currently a non-navigable trade route, Russia and North Korea will welcome Chinese investment and new technologies to connect their landlocked regions,” he added.
“Meanwhile, China is using all diplomatic and political options to ease its access to Russian and South Korean territory,” Patel said. “Of the three countries, China stands to gain the most from the Tumen River, not just strategically but economically. Once operational, the Tumen could bring annual benefits to the Chinese economy of around $600 million.”
Concerns about Japan?
The Tumen River runs along a narrow stretch of the northeastern Korean peninsula where the borders of China, Russia and North Korea meet.
Although China’s navigation rights on the Tumen River were established in the 1991 Sino-Soviet Boundary Agreement, several factors have prevented Chinese vessels from effectively navigating the Tumen River to reach the sea.
Chief among these obstacles is the shallow riverbed, which prevents larger ships from passing through. Carla Freeman, a senior China expert at the United States Institute of Peace, explained that turning the Tumen River into a navigable waterway would require extensive dredging and infrastructure development.
China is considering widening the lower section of the river and removing the current bridge, pending approval from Russia and North Korea.
There have been reports in the past that Beijing has acquired wharf rights at North Korea’s Rason port near the Tumen River, but international sanctions and North Korea’s prolonged border closure due to COVID-19 may have convinced Beijing of the need for direct maritime access via the Tumen River.
Allowing larger ships to pass through the river could reduce the cost of transporting Chinese goods by sea and strengthen economic exchanges with Northeast Asia, potentially including Japan and South Korea.
Melting Arctic ice could create more efficient routes for maritime trade with Europe, opening up new shipping routes through the Arctic and boosting China’s ambitions to establish a “Polar Silk Road”.
The proposed changes could also have significant implications for security in the region, with Nikkei Asia suggesting that large Chinese vessels planning to sail into the Sea of Japan could include coast guard patrol vessels.
Japan’s Coast Guard has been facing increased activity by Chinese government vessels near the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyu Islands.
Recently, four China Coast Guard vessels equipped with what appeared to be machine guns were reported to have simultaneously entered Japanese territorial waters.
If the China Coast Guard becomes more active in the Sea of Japan, Japan may need to redirect its coast guard vessels that monitor the waters around the Senkaku Islands, potentially weakening Japan’s surveillance system in the East China Sea.
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Patel agreed that “if the Tumen River Reconstruction Initiative is successful, the three countries will gain new access points to challenge Japan’s maritime capabilities in the Sea of Japan, potentially changing the regional security order.”
He noted that Japan had previously refused to join the Tumen River Advisory Commission on river and port development, out of fear of potential impacts on its maritime security capabilities in the East China Sea around Tsushima and the Senkaku Islands.
The success of this project will pose new challenges for Japan’s maritime security posture in the Northern Territories, where Chinese and Russian naval assets are expected to be heavily deployed.
He concluded that if a working trade route through the Tumen River were established, Japan would have to adjust its security strategy in the Sea of Japan, which has no islands and is a vast area of open ocean that poses challenges for small and medium-sized armed frigates.
China could develop the Tumen Delta into a second shipyard for naval vessels and patrol boats, strategically located near Japan’s international maritime borders.
