The 2024 national elections are finally over, and the results have come as a surprise to many. This is not the first time that Indian voters have been surprised in this way. The elections have attracted attention not only in India but across the world, as India is poised to become the world’s third largest economy. Though the BJP did not win a majority on its own, it still won 240 seats, more than the 233 won by the 28-party INDI coalition.
Many in the opposition and abroad were quick to call this a decline and defeat for both Mr. Modi and the BJP. Many hailed it as a victory for the coalition and called for Mr. Modi’s resignation. This was not only laughable but also highlighted the utter disrespect of the coalition partners and Mr. Modi’s detractors. The BJP and its pre-election coalition partners secured a comfortable majority in 303 seats despite the incumbency factor. In a democracy, the ultimate winner is whoever forms the government and in 2024 it will be the NDA led by the BJP. It is time for everyone to finish their arguments here.
Doubts began circulating about Modi’s ability to lead a coalition government and whether he would be intimidated by partners like the TDP and JDU. Modi quickly dispelled these doubts by not only securing the support and formation of the government but also taking oath within just five days. The allocation of duties clearly showed that he is an unquestioned leader and the most crucial jobs essential for the growth of the nation were entrusted to his trusted aides. The opposition was undoubtedly disappointed as there was no sign of any altercation by the NDA partners. This ensured Modi’s victory in the first round of running the coalition government.
Coming back to the election results, there are certainly some serious and surprising results that need to be highlighted and understood. Topping the list is the shocking reversal in two states in the Hindi belt, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the BJP’s vote tally fell from 64 to 33 and 25 to 14 respectively. A better showing in these states would have seen the party win a landslide majority on its own. To add salt to the wound, in Ayodhya, the BJP candidate lost to rival SP, in Amethi, BJP firebrand Smriti Irani lost to a non-Gandhi Congress candidate and in Rai Bareilly, Rahul Gandhi won in a landslide victory. The SP made a surprising comeback in Uttar Pradesh by winning 37 seats despite having voiced its opposition to the Ram temple. The alliance effectively exploited the caste structure in both states, ensuring the BJP’s downfall. Whether Yogi’s draconian rule has cost him support in the state or he has not been given free rein by the party’s top brass, the BJP needs to introspect and find a way to regain the ground it has lost in both states.
In West Bengal, after a historic performance of winning 18 seats in 2019, the BJP’s tally has dwindled to 12 in 2024. Neither the Sandeshkari incident nor the constant conflict with the TMC has benefited the BJP in any way. In fact, it has only helped the TMC to play minority vote politics well. This is evident from the defeat of veteran Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury to a fresh outsider from Gujarat, Yusuf Pathan, in his hometown of Baharampur. The only qualification for the winner was that he was a Muslim. It is time for the BJP to realise that when it comes to violence, its cadres are no match for its TMC cadres. The latter has the tacit support of the local government, which makes all the difference. Either way, violence is not the way forward and it is time to punish the TMC and its minions severely.
In Maharashtra, the BJP’s seats fell from 23 to 9. Perhaps voters were not happy with the BJP’s make-or-break politics. The average Maharashtrian still associates Shiv Sena with the name Thackeray and NCP with the name Sharad Pawar. These traditions do not die by inviting rebels. There are rumours that even local BJP leaders were unhappy with the inclusion of these outsiders.
The big takeaway from the 2024 election results is that free services at best boost a few votes in the short term. The expectation that voters will be grateful and remain loyal in the long run is misplaced. Sooner or later, free services will be seen as an entitlement and voters will move in another direction. Secondly, the average voter is highly gullible and a clever opposition party can sway them with a well-crafted narrative. The two narratives put forward by the INDI coalition about the BJP’s intentions to amend the constitution and the marginalisation of Muslim minorities fall into this category. Unfortunately, the BJP had no answers to counter these.
The silver lining for the BJP is its victory in Odisha and strengthened presence in Karnataka, as well as its successful inroads into the southern states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. But a word of caution: the BJP must wage its political battle in these states without any vendetta or hostility and respect regional parties. On the other hand, it must work in close coordination with state governments to realise both regional aspirations and national objectives. The country’s federalism demands it and therefore it must be respected. The mistake made in West Bengal should not be repeated.
Finally, the BJP must see the formation of a coalition government as an opportunity to shed its arrogance. I must prove to the nation that it can work effectively with other parties without compromising the national interest. I also expect that the focus during this five-year term will be on the party itself, the BJP, and not on any individual leader. It is a truism that individual leaders come and go and the existence of a political party can never be ascribed to a single leader, no matter how charismatic or competent he may be. In today’s complex political environment, the success, relevance and continuity of a political party depends on the collective expertise of various team members at all levels.
Disclaimer
The views expressed above are the author’s own.
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