There are many repetitions in the verdict of the recently concluded 2024 general elections. But one thing is clear: there was no clear winner. The election results were split, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) winning 294 votes and Block India winning over 230 votes. This reversed the trend seen in the 2014 and 2019 general elections, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the clear winner and Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the saviour.
Has democracy triumphed?
Much has been written again about the substance of the verdict. First, that democracy has prevailed and the right-wing forces (more specifically the BJP) have been defeated. This is far from the truth. The Indian electorate, especially the rural electorate, undoubtedly showed insight and gave the opposition ample opportunity to change the trajectory of the past decade by forming a “coalition of the willing”. This could have been seen as a clear message against “authoritarianism” at the time. However, the opposition, which did not unite, failed to take advantage of the situation. The Indian Union, which was unable to solidify a coalition before the elections, was unable to unite again when it came time to form a cabinet after the elections. In that sense, the opposition has disappointed the Indian electorate.
Though the BJP-led alliance won by a narrow margin, the BJP’s 240 seats were far from a simple majority. The party lost 63 seats compared to its 2019 total (303) and had to rely on the Telugu Nationalist Party (TDP) (16 seats), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) (12 seats), Ram Vilas (5 seats) and other assorted allies to cross the magic number of 272. The Indian National Congress with 99 seats and the Samajwadi Party with 37 seats are now in disarray. However, it would be wrong to say that the far-right tendencies have been contained, as many analysts say. A skillful response and a clear understanding of what needs to be done were essential for democracy to thrive in such a situation. What the Indian Union gained in the electoral contest was lost because the coalition failed to “seize the opportunity” and allowed the BJP to cajole the TDP and JD(U) into sharing the gains of power. The winner is the Prime Minister. Narendra Modi has achieved his ambition of becoming the Prime Minister of India for the third time, not by electoral verdict but by ploy.
All we can say for now is that the election results may reduce the risk of the country tipping towards autocracy. But for how long this will continue is unclear. In Modi’s thought process, the ruling does not negate his doctrine on how power should be exercised, but the overwhelming support may help confirm his majoritarian views. This is best seen by a careful reading of the Prime Minister’s post-election statements. Now in his third term, he seems intent on proving once again that he is not a consensus builder or willing to abandon his divisive views.
Reading the signs
Already, the signs are clear to see. The new Cabinet and the Council of Ministers will remain essentially the same. This is the best indication that the Prime Minister does not see the need to make any changes or even consult anyone in such an endeavour. Again, everything indicates that the Prime Minister will treat the new Cabinet and the new Council in the same way as before. It seems highly unlikely that any major changes will occur in terms of past practice or future legislation. Thus, the past practice of exercising arbitrary powers to achieve whatever ends the Prime Minister deems desirable will most likely continue. This will remain a theme for the Prime Minister this time around.
More to the point, while the Prime Minister is promoting multipolarity on the world stage and seeking a greater international voice for the global south, it is difficult to imagine him applying the same logic to the Indian situation. He does not see the election results as a judgement to change course. Rather, he may think that continuing on the same path could have produced better results. Hence, there is little hope that he will refrain from using central investigative agencies like the Central Bureau of Investigation and the Enforcement Directorate against everyone. Again, Modi will likely stick to urban India, where he got maximum support in this election. He is unlikely to make concessions to working class voter families and especially informal labourers in rural areas. Hence, the announcement of the Kisan Nidhi should not be seen as a gesture in favour of rural agricultural labourers.
A bruised but uninjured Narendra Modi is likely to pose a much bigger threat to democracy and democratic traditions than the Modi of late March. Nothing could be more infuriating for him. His own vote majority in Varanasi has fallen from over 400,000 in 2019 to 150,000 this time. Equally disappointing was the fact that the BJP suffered a shock defeat to the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh. And despite investing so much time and effort in the Ram temple issue, the BJP lost the Faizabad seat (where Ayodhya is located) to a relatively unknown SP opponent. Any ordinary person would be understandably frustrated that fate should deal such a cruel blow. Being Modi, he would look for ways to overcome this insult. Thus, the worst is yet to come.
The Prime Minister attended the G7 in Italy as an invited guest and in accepting the invitation, he must have believed that as India’s third Prime Minister, he would have another chance to make a bold statement on the international stage, as he did at the G20 in Delhi in 2023. But knowing the Prime Minister, he will try to turn what is effectively a defeat into a victory.
The Road Ahead
Given the disorganized nature of the opposition, there is not much hope and India must prepare. It remains to be seen whether the opposition and the country can withstand the attacks that the Prime Minister will unleash. The Prime Minister is expected to be even more intolerant towards the opposition as he unveils a series of new policies aimed at improving his own stature. He will not tolerate any attempt to ease up on some of the actions he took during his previous tenure. Misuse of investigating and other agencies is expected to continue.
For Modi, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were his project alone. He prayed to God to achieve his objective. He is therefore unlikely to allow mediocrity to thwart and checkmate the achievement of his objective. The rural poor may complain about some of Modi’s policies, but Indian corporations are sure to act as cheerleaders. Meanwhile, we can expect the US and the West to continue bestowing the Prime Minister with the kind of international acclaim he craves.
India’s hopes lie less in a timid opposition and more in the division of the NDA, and more in the BJP itself. As for the BJP, it has been reported that the PM’s refusal to consult with the “high priests” of the National Assembly has angered the BJP. This has been going on for some time. If the division worsens, it could have significant implications for the BJP and its future, but at this point, it is unclear if and how that will happen. It is also reasonable to assume that with the PM’s image as a winner taking a hit, voices are beginning to rise within the BJP against his autocratic attitude and actions. That said, the big question mark is whether and if the PM will be able to adjust to the reality that he is no god, given that the public’s support has proven that he is not invincible.
MK Narayanan is a former Director General of Intelligence, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.
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